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| After a
five years of stagnation, the satellite market is finally rising
and is expected to enter positive cycle; compared to 80 satellites
launched per year, in the period 2000 – 2005. However,
in 2006 the wind has changed with 32% increase in the number
of satellite launched. According to Marco Caceres, senior space
analyst for Teal. "But something changed in 2006. We launched
107 satellites, or a 32% increase over each of the previous
two years. This represents more satellites than we have launched
since 2000."
The total value ($9.39 billion) of the satellites launched
last year was also higher than it has been since 1999. This
trend is expected to continue, resulting from influx of investments
in spacecraft and demand for services. "We have now seen
two consecutive years of growth in the number of geostationary
(GEO) commercial communications satellites launched and ordered
during 2005-2006, says Caceres. "This is important, given
that this segment of the satellite market is a key indicator
for the overall market."
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Teal Group
released highlights of its study "Prospects for Growth
in the Satellite Market" at the Space Foundation's 23rd
National Space Symposium. The overview emphasizes those segments
within the world satellite market that offer the most significant
opportunities for growth during the next 5-10 years.
The study seeks to answer whether the growth was meaningful
and marks the beginning of a consistent trend, or whether it
was simply an anomaly. It notes, for example, the positive numbers
for geostationary (GEO) commercial communications satellites.
In order to pay for the construction and launch of these satellites,
operators are attracting increasing levels of investment capital
to their programs. Investor interest in both GEO and low earth
orbit (LEO) satellite systems is on the rise, and this is good
news for the satellite manufacturing and launch services industries.
The GEO satellite market alone will be worth approximately $25
billion over the next 10 years, with an estimated 231 satellites
built and launched, while the LEO mobile replacement satellites
for in-orbit systems such as Globalstar, Iridium and Orbcomm
will add up to $4 billion in market value through 2016.
The emerging cycle within the commercial satellite market will
coincide with an up cycle in the military satellite market,
led by over 200 new- generation US military satellites valued
at about $120 billion. "Many of these military satellites
have been delayed and are severely over budget, but they will
be built and launched because the requirements for them exist
regardless," says Caceres.
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