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    Defense Market Quarterly Review – May 2025

    Leopard 2 tanks in production at Rheinmetall's tank assembly plant. New facilities are being established in automotive plants converted into armored vehicles production facilities. Photo: Axel Heimken, AFP

    This comprehensive market assessment builds upon Defense Update’s previous Q1 2025 market brief, incorporating performance data from mid-tier and international defense companies, emerging technology players, and significant post-period geopolitical developments.

    The first quarter of 2025 confirmed the defense sector’s exceptional momentum across all market tiers, from major U.S. primes to specialized technology providers and international contractors. With significant post-period developments, including potential NATO spending increases and major Middle East defense deals, the sector demonstrates unprecedented strength and a growth trajectory extending well into 2025 and beyond. Check Part I of the Q1 market review published on April 25, 2025

    Defense Market Performance Overview

    The defense market demonstrated remarkable resilience and growth throughout Q1 2025, with several companies achieving record-breaking financial milestones. This performance was underpinned by three primary drivers: continued global security challenges requiring immediate response capabilities, government commitments to defense modernization programs, and accelerating demand for advanced technologies that provide tactical and strategic advantages.

    US Companies Performance Highlights

    Honeywell Aerospace Technologies (HON) delivered outstanding results with a 14% year-over-year sales increase, driven by robust demand across both commercial aftermarket and defense sectors. The company’s total backlog reached a record $36.1 billion, with aerospace and defense representing a substantial portion. The planned spin-off of the Aerospace business signals a strategic focus on enhancing operational agility in this critical market segment.

    Leidos Holdings (LDOS) continued its strong trajectory in defense modernization, intelligence solutions, and advanced technology integration. The company secured significant contracts across integrated defense systems, mission IT, cyber solutions, and logistics capabilities, contributing to a healthy backlog position. Strategic investments in AI, autonomous systems, and digital transformation initiatives position Leidos well for future growth in an increasingly technology-driven defense landscape.

    Palantir Technologies (PLTR) emerged as a standout performer, with government revenue surging 45% year-over-year to $373 million, marking the seventh consecutive quarter of accelerating growth. The company’s success was primarily driven by defense contracts for AI-powered battlefield analysis and automated military functions. A significant NATO contract contributed to a 45% increase in international government revenue, while the AI Platform (AIP) gained traction in complex aerospace applications, including satellite data analysis. The total remaining deal value reached $5.97 billion.

    Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS) demonstrated robust growth driven by its hypersonic systems, unmanned technologies, and propulsion solutions portfolio. With a hypersonic opportunity pipeline exceeding $12.6 billion, the company is well-positioned in one of the defense market’s most rapidly expanding segments. The Unmanned Systems division showed particular strength with 6.2% organic revenue growth and an impressive book-to-bill ratio of 1.8:1, especially for the Valkyrie drone platform. Overall revenue increased 9.2% year-over-year to $302.6 million, with backlog growing to $1.508 billion.

    Curtiss-Wright Corporation (CW) reported significant growth across both U.S. and international defense markets, driven by modernization programs and new platform acquisitions. Key program wins included contracts for next-generation fighter jets, naval systems, and missile defense platforms. The defense and aerospace segment contributed meaningfully to overall margin expansion while maintaining a strong backlog position.

    Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) achieved impressive Q1 results, with revenue reaching $122.6 million, representing 32% year-over-year growth. The company secured an important position in the defense and government sector through on-ramping to the U.S. Department of Defense’s $5.6 billion National Security Space Launch (NSSL) Phase 3 Lane 1 program and securing launch contracts with the U.S. Air Force. The implementation of a new holding company structure reflects the company’s expanding national security focus, while a growing backlog of $1.067 billion is increasingly driven by government and defense demand.

    International Defense Players

    International companies, particularly European defense contractors, demonstrated robust performance driven by regional security priorities:

    Thales (HO.PA): Defense sales reached €2.685 billion (up 16.5% YoY), though order intake declined 58% due to an exceptionally high comparison base from Q1 2024’s large contracts (Indonesian Rafale, Middle East air surveillance). Five major contracts worth €707 million were secured, including Dutch defense simulator modernization and French SCORPION program vetronics.

    Saab AB (SAAB.ST) demonstrated strong performance particularly in the European market, driven by evolving regional security priorities. The company reported increased orders across all segments, with notable contracts from Latvia for RBS 70 air defense systems and Germany for ground-based surveillance radars. Order backlog grew 8% year-over-year to SEK 152 billion, with international markets representing 67% of new orders. Defense segment revenue increased 13% year-over-year while operating margins expanded.

    Rheinmetall AG (RHM.DE) delivered exceptional results with defense sales growth of 33%, reaching €1.795 billion. Defense EBIT surged 96% year-over-year to €206 million, resulting in a record defense operating margin of 11.5%. Defense operations now represent 78% of group sales. The company’s record €62.6 billion order book reflects successful strategies including production scalability investments, global footprint expansion, and technological innovation in next-generation air defense and infantry modernization.

    Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) provided important context with record-breaking 2024 results showing revenue of $6.11 billion (up 15%) and net income surging 55% to $493 million. The order backlog reached a historic $25 billion, with military sales comprising 85% of total revenue. The ongoing conflict environment has driven unprecedented domestic and international demand while accelerating innovation and production capabilities.

    Technology and Innovation Trends

    The quarter highlighted several critical technology areas experiencing accelerated development and deployment:

    Artificial Intelligence Integration: Companies like Palantir demonstrated the increasing adoption of AI-powered solutions for battlefield analysis, automated military functions, and complex aerospace applications. This trend represents a fundamental shift toward intelligent, autonomous defense capabilities.

    Hypersonic Systems: Kratos’s substantial hypersonic opportunity pipeline underscores the growing strategic importance of hypersonic weapons and defense systems as nations seek next-generation strike and defensive capabilities.

    Unmanned Systems: Strong performance in drone and autonomous platform segments reflects the continuing evolution of warfare toward remotely operated and autonomous systems, with applications ranging from reconnaissance to combat operations.

    Space and Launch Capabilities: Rocket Lab’s success in securing government launch contracts demonstrates the critical importance of assured space access for national security applications.

    Post-Period Developments and Market Outlook

    NATO Defense Spending Initiative

    Discussions within NATO regarding substantially increased defense spending targets represent perhaps the most significant potential market catalyst. Proposals to raise spending commitments from the current 2% of GDP to potentially 3.5% on direct military spending, with an additional 1.5% on broader security expenditures (totaling 5% of GDP by 2032), would create massive, sustained demand increases across the alliance. This initiative, driven by ongoing Ukrainian conflict dynamics and U.S. pressure, would particularly benefit companies supplying conventional military capabilities, modernization programs, and advanced technologies to NATO member nations.

    Regional Conflict Dynamics

    The brief but intense India-Pakistan conflict in early May 2025, featuring the “first drone battle” between nuclear-armed nations, highlighted several critical market dynamics. The conflict underscored the operational importance of advanced unmanned systems, missile defense capabilities, and border security technologies. Both nations have increased defense allocations following the conflict, creating opportunities for companies specializing in these technologies while also highlighting geopolitical engagement risks.

    Middle East Defense Commitments

    President Trump’s May 2025 Middle East tour resulted in the announcement of substantial defense agreements, including a reported $142 billion defense sales package with Saudi Arabia (the largest in U.S. history) and $42 billion in weapons purchases by Qatar. These deals encompass air force advancement related primarily to Boeing (NYSE: BA), (NYSE: GA), air and missile defense (NYSE: RTX, NYSE: LMT), General Atomics (GA-ASI), maritime security, land forces modernization, and information systems (NASDAQ: PLTR). The agreements reinforce the Middle East as a critical market for advanced military capabilities and represent a significant order influx for U.S. defense contractors.

    Ukraine Conflict Evolution

    While discussions continue regarding potential ceasefire arrangements, the fundamental market drivers remain strong. Even if active hostilities were to pause, the need for extensive NATO and European re-stockpiling, continued modernization based on conflict lessons learned, and long-term strategic competition with Russia would likely sustain high defense spending levels. The focus might shift from immediate battlefield consumables to inventory replenishment, capability upgrades, and long-term deterrence strengthening.

    Market Challenges and Risk Factors

    Despite the strong overall performance, several companies face notable challenges:

    Archer Aviation (ACHR) continues working through significant hurdles including regulatory and certification delays, production scaling challenges, supply chain risks, and the complexities of hybrid powertrain development while operating in a pre-revenue phase.

    Supply Chain and Production Constraints: Multiple companies, including Saab, reported challenges with semiconductor lead times and the need for production line investments and workforce training to meet growing demand.

    Regulatory and Certification Requirements: The increasing complexity of advanced defense systems requires navigation of evolving regulatory frameworks, particularly for new technology areas like autonomous systems and space-based platforms.

    Conclusion and Outlook

    The Q1 2025 defense market review reveals a sector experiencing sustained, broad-based growth driven by fundamental geopolitical and technological forces. Strong financial performances across diverse market segments, from traditional defense contractors to emerging technology providers, demonstrate the market’s robust health and growth trajectory.

    Post-period developments, including potential NATO spending increases, regional conflicts highlighting technology needs, and major Middle East defense commitments, strongly suggest continued positive momentum. While challenges exist in areas such as supply chain management and regulatory compliance, the underlying drivers of increased defense spending—geopolitical risk, technological competition, and modernization imperatives—remain firmly established.

    The defense market appears well-positioned for sustained growth throughout 2025 and beyond, with companies successfully positioned in key technology areas, international markets, and modernization programs likely to benefit most from the evolving security environment and increasing government commitments to defense capabilities.

    This quarterly review is based on publicly available financial disclosures and market analysis through Q1 2025, with post-period developments included for a comprehensive market context.

    DefenseTech Brief – May 12, 2025

    Welcome to this week’s DefenseTech Brief from Defense-Update. This report brings you the latest developments in military technology, business, and investment opportunities, drawing on our recent articles and analysis. This week, we cover significant advancements across ground, air, and naval domains, highlighting new procurements, modernization efforts, and the increasing integration of autonomous systems. We also examine a recent geopolitical event that underscores the evolving nature of warfare and the critical role of advanced defense technologies.


    Focus Shift?  Autonomous Robotic Formations or Manned-Unmanned Teaming?

    Following the cancellation of the Robotic Combat Vehicle (RCV) development, MQ-1C Grey Eagle UAS, and some of the AH-64D Apache squadrons, the US Army maintains its pursuit of manned-unmanned teaming (MUM-T), with initial Human Machine Integrated Formations (HMIF) planned for fielding in 2027. Development focuses on introducing common control systems for both ground and aerial robots, enabling more streamlined operability of humans and robots.

    The Army’s HMIF concept envisions dismounted personnel and manned vehicles operating alongside robotic platforms serving as “wingmen” or systems capable of performing dangerous tasks, with machines making first contact with the enemy. The development includes modular, open architecture systems facilitating rapid technology integration. Control systems are being designed for integration into vehicles like the XM-30, current AMPV, and portable devices for infantry. The phased approach begins with teleoperation and progresses to greater autonomy based on field experiments and soldier feedback.

    This approach represents a significant step towards modernizing ground combat, emphasizing phased autonomy and the reduction of risk to personnel. The focus on common control systems and modular architecture aims to create a flexible robotic ecosystem. Deferring larger platforms like the RCV indicates a desire to build experience with smaller systems before committing to more complex ones.

    European Armored Modernization Efforts Underway

    While the US Army discontinues large-scale productions of armored vehicles, European armies and armored vehicle manufacturers are scaling up manufacturing. CV-90, Boxer, Ajax/Ascod 2, and CAVS are only a few examples of the growing demand that spans all European countries, not only the largest military forces.

    Greece is modernizing its mechanized forces by upgrading Leonidas AIFVs and M-113 armored personnel carriers. Israel’s Rafael and Elbit Systems have submitted competing proposals for M-113 modernization with engine upgrades, enhanced armor, and weapon systems. France has proposed selling surplus VBCI vehicles and producing new Philoctetes MK II VBCIs locally. Romania plans to purchase 246 tracked infantry fighting vehicles with bids from multiple manufacturers, emphasizing localized production and technology transfer.

    Greek modernization brings legacy platforms to modern standards with comprehensive upgrades. Israeli proposals upgrade M-113s to A3 standard with improved automotive systems, armor, and weapons including 30mm turrets and SPIKE LR2 missiles. The French VBCI Philoctetes offer includes interim vehicles and local production with 40mm cannons. For Leonidas upgrades, EODH and Valhalla propose remote weapon stations and enhanced protection. Romania’s acquisition is driven by the need to strengthen NATO’s eastern flank, prioritizing industrial participation and technology transfer.

    These programs demonstrate a trend toward enhancing the capabilities and survivability of armored forces in Europe. Greece’s approach balances cost and capability needs, while the emphasis on local industry participation in both countries reflects common European procurement requirements. Romania’s large-scale purchase signals significant investment in its land forces.

    The 407 kg Naval Strike Missile (NSM) uses a low-observable design to minimize its radar signature, through the use of low-observable shapes made of composite materials, eliminating detection from long range. Photo: Raytheon

    Denmark Bolsters Coastal Defense with Naval Strike Missiles

    Denmark is strengthening its naval capabilities by acquiring Kongsberg’s Naval Strike Missile (NSM), considering reactivation of coastal defense batteries, and boosting the anti-ship capabilities of its Iver Huitfeldt-class frigates. This acquisition replaces older Harpoon missiles and supports Denmark’s plan to expand its naval capacity.

    The NSM acquisition represents a significant upgrade for the Royal Danish Navy, providing advanced anti-ship capabilities. Reactivating coastal defense batteries with NSMs indicates a focus on area denial and maritime approach control. Utilizing the same missile system on both coastal batteries and frigates provides operational flexibility while supporting Denmark’s naval expansion plans.

    Denmark’s decision underscores a clear intention to strengthen anti-ship capabilities and maritime area control, consistent with the broader European trend of investing in modern coastal defense systems. Platform integration across land and sea offers strategic advantages.

    Airbus US is developing an autonomous, unmanned variant of the UH-72 Lakota helicopter designated MQ-72C. This ‘Logistic Connector’ is being developed for the USMC, which implements ShieldAI’s Hivemind. Photo: Airbus US

    Advancements in Autonomous Aerial Logistics

    Airbus U.S. and Shield AI are integrating Hivemind autonomy software into the UH-72 Lakota helicopter, creating the MQ-72C Logistics Connector capable of autonomous operations without GPS, communications, or human input. This supports the Marine Corps’ Aerial Logistics Connector program. Concurrently, Airbus pursues various European autonomy projects, including the VSR700 tactical UAS and advanced cockpit automation research.

    The MQ-72C initiative aims to provide resilient supply lines for distributed operations in challenging environments. Hivemind enables autonomous flight without reliance on GPS or communications, addressing electronic warfare vulnerabilities. This transforms a conventional helicopter into an autonomous aircraft. Airbus’s European projects include the VSR700 for naval missions and Clean Sky 2 research for civil aircraft cockpit automation. European autonomy programs like the Next Generation Rotorcraft Technologies (ENGRT) project focus more on foundational technologies for systems beyond 2030.

    The MQ-72C represents a rapid application of advanced autonomy for contested logistics, contrasting with Airbus’s broader European projects spanning civil and military domains. The U.S.-Shield AI collaboration leverages commercial expertise and rapid prototyping, with GPS-independent operation providing significant advantages in modern warfare scenarios.

    The UK’s Military Aviation Authority has issued a Military Type Certificate to the Royal Air Force’s Protector RG Mk1 uncrewed aircraft (the UK version of General Atomics ASI MQ-9B). Photo: GA-ASI

    Progress in RPAS Airspace Integration 

    The UK’s Protector RG Mk1 (MQ-9B) has received certification to operate without geographic restrictions, including flying over populated areas. The German Heron TP has completed cross-border and upper-airspace flights, while the Swiss Hermes 900 Starliner has received dual military and civilian certification. European regulatory bodies are working to enable the full integration of large RPAS into general air traffic.

    The Protector certification marks a landmark achievement, allowing a large RPAS to operate in the same airspace as manned aircraft. The German Heron TP’s test flights refine procedures for RPAS integration, though it doesn’t yet have unrestricted flight rights across Europe. The Hermes 900’s dual certification allows civilian airspace operation. EDA and EASA efforts aim to eliminate special mitigation measures for large RPAS.

    These developments show that regulatory and technical hurdles to integrating military RPAS into civilian airspace are being systematically addressed. The NATO STANAG 4671 standard serves as a key benchmark. Successful integration is crucial for routine deployment without requiring segregated airspace, though complete integration remains an ongoing effort.

    The RAF Stormshroud employs Tekever’s AR3 drone carrying Leonardo BrightStorm EW payload on Suppression of Enemy Air Defense (SEAD) missions. Photo: RAF

    UK’s StormShroud Drone Enhances Electronic Warfare Capability

    The UK has introduced the StormShroud unmanned aerial decoy for Suppression of Enemy Air Defences (SEAD), based on the Tekever AR3 UAS with Leonardo’s BriteStorm electronic warfare payload. The system is ground-launched and parachute-recovered, with Tekever announcing significant UK defense investment.

    StormShroud provides the RAF with SEAD capability using a proven UAS platform. The ground-launched, parachute-recovered system favors endurance and simple deployment by small teams. Leonardo’s BriteStorm payload offers stand-in jamming and deception capabilities designed for small UAVs and attritable platforms. Importantly, BriteStorm is platform-agnostic and capable of integration into various systems. Tekever’s investment strengthens the UK-Portugal defense technology partnership.

    StormShroud with BriteStorm gives the RAF specialized electronic warfare and SEAD capabilities. The platform-agnostic payload increases utility across various uncrewed systems. The focus on an attritable platform accepts potential system loss during high-risk missions, an important capability in contested environments where air defense systems pose significant threats.

    US Marine Corps Embraces Loitering Munitions with OPF-L Program

    The US Marine Corps’ Organic Precision Fires-Light (OPF-L) program aims to equip infantry battalions with loitering munitions, including AeroVironment’s Switchblade 300 and a reusable VTOL munition from Teledyne FLIR. The program began in September 2023, with the first systems for evaluation scheduled in early 2026. OPF-L supports the USMC’s Force Design 2030 initiative.

    OPF-L increases small-unit lethality and reduces reliance on external fire support. The battle-proven Switchblade 300 provides precision-guided strike capability at battalion level, while reusable systems offer mission flexibility. The program is explicitly linked to Force Design 2030, reflecting the Marine Corps’ shift toward distributed operations and incorporating lessons from recent conflicts. This initiative includes force structure changes, training, and new military occupational specialties.

    OPF-L represents a major doctrinal and technological shift for USMC infantry, providing organic precision strikes at lower echelons supporting dispersed, self-reliant units. Multiple vendors and system types create a complementary capability mix, with rapid fielding timelines underscoring urgency.

    Replicator 2: Scaling Autonomous Systems and Counter-Drone Tech

    The Replicator initiative aims to rapidly acquire thousands of attritable autonomous systems. Replicator 1 focused on multi-domain autonomous systems, while Replicator 2.0 targets Counter-small UAS (C-sUAS) with low collateral damage capabilities. The initiative uses the Defense Innovation Unit’s Commercial Solutions Opening process to involve non-traditional companies. Systems include loitering munitions, uncrewed vehicles, electronic warfare systems, and AI-enabled detection technologies.

    Replicator 1 counters China’s military buildup with mass quantities of low-cost autonomous systems. Replicator 2 addresses the growing threat of small drones, minimizing risks in complex environments. The CSO acquisition process bypasses traditional procurement bottlenecks. Replicator encompasses a portfolio including Switchblade 600 loitering munitions, AI for data processing, swarms management, and open system architectures. Allied participation demonstrates willingness to leverage international R&D.

    Replicator represents a transformative DoD effort prioritizing speed, scale, and autonomy. The pivot to C-sUAS highlights the critical drone threat and need for scalable countermeasures. Non-traditional acquisition methods and broader industry engagement reflect fundamental shifts in defense procurement strategy.

    India-Pakistan Conflict (May 2025): A Case Study in Modern Warfare

    The week of May 5th-11th, 2025, saw rapid escalation to multi-domain conflict between India and Pakistan, including aerial combat, missile strikes, drone warfare, artillery duels, and cyber activities. India launched “Operation Sindoor” while Pakistan responded with “Operation Bunyan al-Marsus.” A US-mediated ceasefire faced immediate violations. Pakistan claimed cyberattacks against Indian domains, satellites, and government servers, while India released images of an allegedly Pakistani Turkish-made loitering munition.

    This brief conflict demonstrated the operational integration of modern military technologies. Both sides employed missile strikes from standoff range, with India reportedly targeting terrorist infrastructures and military sites using cruise missiles, drones, and guided aerial weapons inside Pakistani areas. Pakistan claimed interception of five Indian fighter planes inside Indian territory, using Beyond Visual Range (BVR) air/air missiles, particularly Chinese PL-15 air/air missiles used in combat for the first time.

    The conflict demonstrated the effectiveness of India’s multi-layered Air Defense network. These air defenses were employed primarily against Pakistani attacks by ballistic missiles, rockets, and drones. At the same time, across the border, Pakistan’s combat air defense relied on a massive deployment of fighter aircraft to repel the Indian attacks. However, this massive counter-air campaign failed to defeat the air-launched and ground-launched cruise missile attacks launched by the Indian side, allegedly at terror infrastructure and, later, early warning and air-base targets.

    Drone warfare was prolific, with India and Pakistan claiming to have shot down dozens of Pakistani drones without providing clear evidence of such numbers. Pakistan’s claimed offensive cyber operations introduced non-kinetic attacks targeting critical infrastructure, causing disruption and outages in power services in Northern India. The rapid escalation highlighted volatility between these nuclear-armed states.

    This conflict illustrates that modern conflicts are likely to be multi-domain, involving conventional, unmanned, missile, and cyber capabilities. The extensive use of drones validates the urgent focus on C-sUAS technologies. Claimed cyberattacks demonstrate the expanding attack surface in contemporary warfare, while rapid escalation underscores the importance of crisis management mechanisms and advanced defense capabilities.

    European Armies Accelerate Armor Modernization as US Scales Back Legacy Programs

    KNDS displayed at DEFEA 2025 the VBCI AFV dubbed "Philoctetes", modified to fit Greece's requirement for protected mobility and firepower for its infantry.

    While the United States Army continues to slow down and discontinue acquisitions of armored vehicles such as the Armored Multi-Purpose Vehicle (AMPV) and Joint Light Tactical Vehicle (JLTV), European nations are aggressively moving forward with procurement and modernization programs for hundreds of armored fighting vehicles. This shift highlights diverging priorities in military spending and force structure development between the US and its European allies.

    European Rely on Domestic Suppliers

    The contrast between US and European acquisition strategies has become increasingly apparent. Even as Ukraine reportedly stands ready to commit to purchasing AMPV vehicles from BAE Systems to help sustain production lines that the US military is scaling back, multiple European nations are simultaneously launching or accelerating their own armor modernization initiatives.

    These programs have evolved into comprehensive modernization plans spanning hundreds of combat vehicles that often include significant domestic industrial participation, technology transfer arrangements, and long-term sustainment strategies. Among these are various variants of the ASCOD II and Piranha 5 from GDELS, thousands of KF41 Lynx from Rheinmetall, various types of BAE System’s CV90s, and Polish Borsuk to be produced by the local company HSW, as well as CAVS 6×6 APCs, acquired under a joint procurement of four European countries. Upgrading and manufacturing of Main Battle Tanks include the latest Leopard 2A8 and new Rheinmetall KF-51 Panther tanks and future MGCS, currently on the drawing boards in Germany and France. US-made combat vehicles are almost absent from this race, as European countries tend to rely on local suppliers for their combat systems. Three countries that are about to invest billions of Euros in new AFV programs are Greece, Netherlands, and Romania.

    Israeli companies Rafael and Plasan have displayed a Greek Army M-113 modified to carry more armor and mount the Samson 30 weapon station with two canister launchers for Spike 2MR guided missiles. This version is one candidate for the Greek army’s M-113 upgrade. Photo: Defense-Update

    Greece’s Comprehensive Armor Modernization

    Greece represents one of the most ambitious cases of armor modernization in Europe today. The Hellenic Armed Forces are pursuing multiple parallel tracks to modernize their mechanized infantry capabilities, with a focus on enhancing protected transport, mobility, protection, and firepower.

    M-113 Modernization Proposals

    A cornerstone of the Greek modernization effort involves upgrading their fleet of aging M-113 armored personnel carriers. At least two Israeli companies—Rafael and Elbit Systems—have submitted competing proposals for this program through government-to-government channels.

    Rafael’s proposal, showcased at the recent DEFEA 2025 exhibition, involves modernizing between 300-500 M-113s in collaboration with Greek company METKA. Their prototype features a remotely controlled Samson 30 turret housing a 30mm Bushmaster cannon coupled with Spike LR2 missile launcher capability. The modernization package also includes enhanced armor protection, a new more powerful engine to handle the added weight, and comprehensively upgraded electronic communications systems to meet contemporary battlefield requirements.

    Rafael has committed to establishing a production line in Magnesia, with METKA handling local assembly, manufacturing, and integration tasks.

    Elbit Systems has countered with its own proposal based on established M-113 upgrade programs it has implemented for other international clients. Their upgrade would transform the M-113A1 into A3 configuration with comprehensive automotive system upgrades throughout the platform. The package includes a more powerful engine and improved drive systems to support the increased weight and operational demands of the modernized vehicle. Central to the upgrade is the integration of advanced 30mm turrets with M44 Bushmaster cannons along with SPIKE 2LR guided missile capability, significantly enhancing the vehicle’s firepower and engagement range.

    Both Israeli proposals emphasize significant Greek industrial participation as a key differentiator.

    KNDS’ Philoctetes was also displayed at DEFEA 2025. Photo: Defense-Update

    The French “Philoctetes” Alternative

    France has entered the competition with a proposal centered on the VBCI (Véhicule Blindé de Combat d’Infanterie). The French offering includes an initial delivery of 88 surplus VBCI armored infantry fighting vehicles from French Army inventory as an interim solution, followed by the production of enhanced VBCI MK I vehicles fitted with remotely controlled turrets. These vehicles would feature 40mm CTI cannons, which the French position as more modern and powerful than the 30mm Bushmaster systems offered in competing proposals. The program would eventually transition to local production of an additional 280 “Philoctetes” MK II VBCIs, creating a substantial industrial opportunity for Greece. The package is rounded out with a comprehensive ammunition supply arrangement, extensive follow-on support commitments, and potential financing options from French banking institutions to make the proposal more economically attractive to Athens.

    KNDS, the Franco-German defense manufacturer, has partnered with METLEN (a METKA subsidiary) to localize production, creating an interesting competitive dynamic as METKA is simultaneously partnered with Rafael on the Israeli proposal.

    Leonidas AIFV Upgrade Option

    A third modernization path focuses on Greece’s indigenous Leonidas armored infantry fighting vehicles. The proposed “Leonidas 3000” upgrade centers around replacing the STEYR 7FA diesel engine with a more powerful Caterpillar C7 providing 360 horsepower and 1,254 Nm of torque. The modernization incorporates the HWS Tyr 25/30 remote-controlled weapon station from Slovenian company Valhalla, with options for either a 12.7mm heavy machine gun with coaxial 7.62mm or a repurposed Mauser MK30F 30mm cannon sourced from retired Artemis 30 anti-aircraft systems. Crew comfort and protection receive significant attention with the addition of air conditioning, comprehensive NBC protection systems, and an Auxiliary Power Unit for improved field operations. The electronic architecture is completely overhauled with a digital backbone network featuring analog-to-digital interfaces for legacy systems, enhanced crew displays, and modern battlefield information systems. Survivability improvements include synthetic add-on armor panels, spall liners to protect against fragments, and reinforced underbelly protection against the persistent mine threat. EODH Dynamics, a new subsidiary of the EODH group, displayed the Leonidas 300 at the recent DEFEA. The vehicle was displayed with a turret provided by Slovenia’s Valhalla defense company and counter-UAS system provided by SignalGeneriX, among other upgrades.

    EODS Dynamics displayed the modernized Leonidas 300 APC fitted with the Nimrod 300 turret from the Slovenian company Walhalla. Another interesting system is the RFHunter, a drone countermeasure developed by the Capriot company SignalGeneriX, seen mounted at the rear. Photo: Flight.com.gr

    Romania’s Major IFV Acquisition Program

    Greece is not alone in pursuing ambitious armor modernization. Romania has announced plans to purchase 246 tracked infantry fighting vehicles as part of efforts to strengthen NATO’s eastern flank in response to perceived Russian threats.

    Multiple platforms are under consideration for the Romanian requirement, with competitive offerings from across the global defense industry. These include the German KF41 Lynx from Rheinmetall, the British CV90 from BAE Systems, the Korean K21 Redback developed by Hanwha Defense, and the European ASCOD 2 platform that has seen service with several NATO countries. Each represents different approaches to balancing firepower, protection, and mobility for modern mechanized infantry operations.

    Romania’s program emphasizes technology transfer and domestic production capabilities, building on its existing experience manufacturing Piranha 5 IFVs and the upcoming production of Turkish Cobra II light armored vehicles.

    Netherlands Seeking Combat General Purpose Vehicles

    The Dutch Armed Forces are also advancing procurement plans for 100-150 “Combat General Purpose Vehicles” (CGPVs) to support their 43rd Heavy Mechanized Brigade. Implementation is expected between 2029 and 2031.

    The Dutch procurement requirements specify Military Off The Shelf (MOTS) platforms to minimize development risk and accelerate fielding. The most likely candidates include the ACSV G5 from Germany’s FFG Flensburger Fahrzeugbau GmbH, which the Dutch already operate in air defense and missile carrier variants, as well as the BAE Systems CV90, which currently serves in Dutch inventory as both a troop carrier and armored infantry fighting vehicle. The familiarity with both platforms would offer significant logistical and training advantages if either were selected.

    Analysis: Diverging Transatlantic Priorities

    These European procurement initiatives highlight a significant shift in defense priorities between the United States and its European allies. While the US Department of Defense has increasingly focused on high-end capabilities for great power competition—sometimes at the expense of legacy platforms like the AMPV and JLTV—European nations appear to be doubling down on traditional armored capabilities.

    This divergence likely reflects differing threat perceptions, with European nations more immediately concerned about conventional land warfare scenarios on the continent. The continuing conflict in Ukraine has reinforced the enduring importance of armored vehicles in modern warfare, prompting these modernization efforts.

    For defense contractors, particularly those with significant armored vehicle portfolios, these European programs represent crucial opportunities as US funding for similar platforms diminishes. The willingness of companies like BAE Systems, Rafael, Elbit Systems, and KNDS to pursue competitive industrial partnerships demonstrates the strategic importance of these programs to the global defense industrial base.

    As the US continues to reassess its own force structure priorities, these European modernization programs may ultimately influence future Pentagon decisions about the role and importance of armored vehicles in future conflicts.

    Rheinmetall Showcase Enhanced SSW40 Grenade Rifle at DEFEA 2025

    At this year’s DEFEA defense exhibition in Athens, Rheinmetall showcased the latest evolution of its Squad Support Weapon, the SSW40, a semi-automatic magazine-fed grenade launcher that bridges the gap between traditional 40mm launchers and precision squad-level support weapons. The version on display represents a significant step forward since the system’s previous public appearance at DSEI 2023.

    From Concept to Combat-Ready

    Originally introduced as a concept demonstrator, the SSW40 has matured into a fully functional platform designed to fire both low-velocity (LV) and medium-velocity (MV) 40mm grenades. The upgraded configuration features several enhancements aimed at improving accuracy, versatility, and combat effectiveness.

    With an effective range of 250 meters for LV grenades and 600 meters for MV, the weapon gives infantry units a significant reach advantage. In comparison, its maximum range extends up to 900 meters, depending on the ammunition type. Rheinmetall has engineered the weapon to deliver consistent firepower while maintaining manageable recoil and mobility—essential for dismounted units.

    The buttstock uses an active recoil compensation to soften the load and enable firing the MV grenades from the shoulder. Photo: Defense-Update

    Magazine-Fed Firepower

    A distinguishing feature of the SSW40 is its magazine-fed system, setting it apart from single-shot or revolving-cylinder launchers. Two magazine configurations are available, allowing for three or five-round capacities. With one round chambered and a three-round magazine inserted, the fully loaded weapon weighs approximately 6 kilograms—well within the acceptable load for infantry operations. Weight savings were achieved through innovative engineering, which is reflected in the ‘open barrel’ design. Range setting has also been simplified with a single dial setting for ammunition type and range.

    Grenades that are longer than the magazine size are loaded manually. Photo: Defense-Update

    Dual-Sighting and Fire Control System Integration

    The version displayed at DEFEA was fitted with dual sighting systems: a standard optical sight and an advanced Fire Control System (FCS), which is currently under development. The FCS features a red-dot reticle that dynamically adjusts to reflect real-time range compensation based on data from a built-in laser rangefinder. The FCS improves first-round hit probability by automatically modifying the aim point, especially at extended ranges or against moving targets.

    SSW40 uses a standard sight and an FCS with a laser rangefinder and red dot pointer. The dial between the sights provides ammunition type and manual range setting. This unit is already prepared to support the IR fuze setting of Airburst grenades. Photo – Defense-Update.

    Programmable Airburst Grenade Development Underway

    Rheinmetall is also developing a programmable airburst grenade optimized for use with the SSW40. Designed to engage defilade targets or enemies under cover, this munition will receive electronic fuze-setting commands via an infrared link immediately after exiting the barrel. Integrating this feature with the FCS promises to extend the SSW40’s effectiveness in complex operational environments.

    Market Outlook

    According to Rheinmetall officials, the company is preparing to conduct live demonstrations of the SSW40 for international customers in the coming month. These trials will focus on the system’s compatibility with standard 40mm grenades, with programmable munitions expected to follow later in the development cycle.

    The SSW40 is positioned to fill a growing capability gap in modern infantry squads, offering enhanced lethality with precision engagement and a greater standoff range than legacy grenade launchers. Its integration of fire control and programmable munitions reflects the broader industry shift toward networked, smart-enabled infantry weapons.

    DefenseTech Financial Brief – May 5, 2025

    Market Overview & Investment Implications

    The defense technology landscape continues to evolve rapidly, with this week’s developments highlighting several interconnected trends that present significant investment opportunities across multiple domains. Current geopolitical tensions and ongoing conflicts are accelerating the adoption of next-generation capabilities, particularly in the areas of autonomous systems, cost-effective unmanned platforms, advanced protection technologies, and extended-range strike options. Another review covering the recently announced Army reform has been published.

    Investment Outlook

    The defense sector continues to demonstrate resilience against broader economic uncertainties, supported by increasing global defense budgets and accelerated modernization timelines. The trends highlighted in this week’s report indicate sustained demand across multiple technology domains, with particular strength in autonomous systems, protection technologies, and long-range strike capabilities.

    Key investment considerations include:

    Balancing established primes with specialized technology providers to capture program-of-record revenue and disruptive innovation potential.

    Geographic diversification across U.S., European, and Asian defense manufacturers to benefit from regional procurement priorities and industrial participation requirements.
    Attention to development timeframes and technical risk, particularly for advanced programs like hypersonic weapons.

    Focus on companies demonstrating effective supply chain management in the current constrained industrial environment.

    Consideration of dual-use technologies where commercial applications can provide additional growth vectors beyond defense budgets.

    The coming quarters should provide greater clarity on procurement timelines for several major programs discussed in this report, potentially creating attractive entry points for long-term investors in the companies best positioned to execute these opportunities.

    U.S. Army 2025 Restructuring: Strategic Realignment and Industrial Impact

    The U.S. Army has embarked on one of its most consequential restructuring efforts in decades, slashing legacy systems, reorganizing commands, and accelerating the development of technologies aligned with peer-level warfare. Announced as part of the “Army Transformation and Acquisition Reform” initiative, the reorganization reflects a stark pivot toward long-range precision fires, tactical autonomy, and streamlined force structures aimed at future high-end conflict.

    This strategic realignment presents risk and opportunity across the defense industrial base—disrupting long-established procurement pathways while rewarding firms aligned with new doctrinal and operational imperatives.

    A Break with Legacy: Program Cancellations and Reductions

    At the core of the transformation is a deliberate departure from heavy investment in traditional ground combat platforms. The Army has paused or terminated multiple programs, including:

    • Robotic Combat Vehicle (RCV): Development halted due to uncertain operational value and software integration challenges.
    • M10 Booker light tank: Cancelled after early deliveries; the vehicle was deemed too heavy for its envisioned airborne role.
    • Stryker Combat Vehicle: No further production orders will be issued.
    • AMPV (Armored Multi-Purpose Vehicle): Scaled back to minimum sustainment rates.
    • Artillery Modernization: Terminating further evaluation of foreign self-propelled artillery.
    • JLTV: Slowed procurement

    These decisions reflect an institutional reassessment of armored vehicle utility in contested environments where survivability and electronic vulnerability are growing concerns. However, the realignment doesn’t address the need for protected mobility of heavy, mechanized, or Stryker Brigade Combat Teams (SBCT), primarily regarding new assets such as air defense, counter-UAS, mortars, and weapons carriers.

    Acceleration of Priority Capabilities

    In parallel with these cuts, the Army is fast-tracking select modernization programs:

    • XM30 Mechanized Infantry Combat Vehicle: The replacement for the Bradley IFV is under accelerated development, though the final selection is pending—likely around 2027.
    • M1E3 Abrams MBT: General Dynamics Land Systems (GDLS) will benefit from the acceleration of this next-gen main battle tank, focusing on reduced weight, modular protection, and electronic warfare resilience.
    • Future Long-Range Assault Aircraft (FLRAA) – the program is a centerpiece of the service’s aviation modernization strategy. The realignment plan prioritizes modernization programs that provide operational overmatch and future-readiness, and the V-280 is cited as a key example of this approach, with continued funding and programmatic momentum.
    • Long-Range Fires: A top modernization priority, with a focus on:
      • Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) Increments 4 and 5
      • Medium-Range Ballistic Missiles (MRBMs), including anti-ship variants
      • Expansion of missile basing in Europe (e.g., reactivation of the 56th Artillery Command) and deployment of the Typhon system in the Philippines

    These capabilities directly support Indo-Pacific and European deterrence objectives and represent the Army’s effort to reclaim relevance in strategic fires.

    Drone Warfare and Tactical Disruption

    One of the most transformative elements is the institutionalization of drone warfare at the tactical level:

    • Mandated Fielding: Every division must field drones by 2026. A thousand drones per division was mentioned.
    • Counter-UAS: Affordable, scalable C-UAS solutions will be integrated at platoon and company levels by 2027.
    • Tactical Loitering Munitions: Growing emphasis on modular, AI-enabled, one-way attack (OWA) drones for distributed strike. Ongoing programs, including Launched Effects and Replicator, are expected to excel.

    While some in Congress proposed a dedicated “Drone Corps,” Army leadership opted for integrated experimentation—developing deployable drone warfare elements within brigades and divisions.

    This distributed model allows rapid feedback loops and doctrinal adaptation, with historical analogies drawn from the early development of tanks and machine guns.

    Rotary-Wing Aviation: Consolidation and Disruption

    Aviation modernization is another area undergoing major shifts:

    • Bell V-280 Valor: Selected as the Future Long-Range Assault Aircraft (FLRAA), offering extended range and speed over the UH-60. Bell Textron (NYSE: TXT) is well-positioned to lead production and support decades of procurement.
    • MQ-1C Grey Eagle Termination: This is a major blow to General Atomics as the Army pivots away from large ISR drones toward low-cost, autonomous, and Attritable systems.
    • Apache Cuts: The deactivation of several AH-64D battalions signals a declining emphasis on manned attack helicopters unless offset by upgrades or international sales.

    Structural Reorganization and Sustainment Reform

    Secretary Hegseth’s reform memo outlines a series of force structure and sustainment changes:

    • Command Mergers: Army Futures Command and TRADOC will consolidate under a new four-star command based in Texas.
    • Reduction of Generals: Streamlining leadership to enhance agility.
    • Industrial Base Expansion: With congressional support, the Army aims to make a new missile production and sustainment infrastructure fully operational by 2028.
    • Right to Repair: Mandated reforms in contractor agreements to allow field-level maintenance and spare part production, including 3D printing.

    Risks, Oversights, and Strategic Gaps

    Despite its forward-looking scope, the restructuring carries risks:

    • Implementation Gaps: The pace of change, especially in drone doctrine and sustainment, may outpace the Army’s ability to train, test, and integrate.
    • Industrial Bottlenecks: Missile production lines remain constrained, and rapid expansion will test contractor capacity.
    • Doctrinal Conflict: Consolidating Futures Command with TRADOC risks diluting critical R&D focus.

    Investment Landscape: Opportunities and Exposures

    Poised to Benefit

    Company Sector Opportunity
    Lockheed Martin (LMT) Missiles PrSM, ER-GMLRS, Dark Eagle
    RTX Corp. (RTX) Missiles, sensors SM-6, Typhon system, C-UAS
    Bell Textron (TXT) Rotary-wing FLRAA/V-280 production
    AeroVironment (AVAV) Tactical UAS Puma, Switchblade expansion
    Teledyne FLIR (TDY) Drone sensors ISR payloads and rugged UAS
    Anduril (private) AI/Drone autonomy Tactical drone integration
    Markforged (MKFG), Velo3D (VLD), Firestorm Labs Additive manufacturing Sustainment and field repair tech
    Leonardo DRS (DRS) Electronic systems C-UAS, offset by a reduction in Vehicle electronics


    At Risk

    Company Sector Exposure
    General Dynamics Land Systems (GD) Ground combat vehicles Losses in Stryker, Booker;
    offset partially by M1E3 development
    General Atomics Large UAS MQ-1C Grey Eagle cancellation
    AM General JLTV Slowed production
    BAE Systems AMPV Program cancellations and reduced orders
    Kongsberg Defense RWS Program cancellations and reduced orders for Stryker, AMPV
    Boeing (BA) Attack helicopters Declining Apache relevance unless mitigated by export


    Conclusion: A Force Rebuilt for Future Wars

    The U.S. Army’s 2025 transformation marks a decisive break from legacy structures and systems. In its place is a leaner, more modular force built for high-end conflict—leveraging autonomy, long-range precision, and a restructured command model.

    While this shift opens doors for agile tech providers, it challenges entrenched defense primes. For investors, the path forward demands careful alignment with evolving Army priorities, technological feasibility, and geopolitical realities. In this reimagined battlespace, speed, survivability, and strike range have become the Army’s new watchwords—and industry’s new battleground.

     

    DefenseTech Weekly Brief – April 28 – May 3, 2025

    NSM anti-ship missile fired from the NMESIS system on a test flight. Photo: USMC

    The defense landscape continues evolving rapidly, with emerging technologies reshaping battlefield dynamics across domains. This week’s developments highlight cost-effective drone proliferation, increased artillery autonomy, extended-range strike capabilities, enhanced vehicle protection systems, and significant procurement decisions affecting naval aviation forces.

    U.S. Army Restructuring 2025:
    Strategic Shifts and Industry Fallout

    This week’s DefenseTech Brief explores the U.S. Army’s sweeping transformation plan—canceling legacy ground systems, accelerating missile and drone capabilities, and consolidating command structures. The move signals a shift toward high-end conflict readiness, with profound implications for defense manufacturers, suppliers, and investors. Our feature breaks down key winners and at-risk contractors, including the rise of missile production, drone integration, and the industrial challenges ahead.

    📈 Featured: Army’s pivot to long-range precision fires, drone warfare, and next-gen platforms
    📉 Impacted: Legacy platforms like Stryker, Booker, Apache, and MQ-1C Grey Eagle
    (Read the updated analysis)

    HX-2 and Resilience Factories have been designed with high throughput and scale from the outset. Photo: Helsing

    Aerial Warfare Evolution: Budget Drones Changing the Game

    Recent conflicts show a fundamental shift in how air power works. Mass-produced, affordable drones and loitering munitions are creating significant advantages for both state and non-state actors while imposing challenging cost-exchange ratios on defenders using expensive interceptors. (read the article)

    Key Technologies Driving Change:

    • 3D printing enables faster component manufacturing
    • AI systems allow autonomous operation and coordinated swarming
    • Modular architectures provide adaptability for different missions

    Ukraine’s distributed manufacturing approach demonstrates the importance of production scale and operational resilience against countermeasures.

    Impact Assessment: This shift is forcing a rethink of traditional air defense doctrines. Military planners are moving toward multi-layered defenses combining electronic warfare, directed energy weapons, and specialized counter-drone capabilities. The economic imbalance in these engagements creates urgency for cost-effective countermeasures.

    Market Outlook: Companies specializing in low-cost UAS manufacturing, AI for autonomous functions (Anduril, Helsing, Stark Defence, Xtend Defense), counter-drone technologies, and modular subsystems are well-positioned. Established players like IAI, Rafael, AeroVironment, and KNDS are adapting their portfolios, while newer entrants like Firestorm Labs and Cummings Aerospace focus on innovative manufacturing approaches.

    Autonomous Multi-domain Launcher (AML) undergoing firing tests at Yuma Proving Ground in April 2024. Photo: US Army

    Autonomous Artillery: Removing Humans from the Firing Line

    Artillery crews’ vulnerability on modern battlefields is accelerating the shift toward automated and autonomous fire support systems. This trend aligns with emerging operational concepts requiring distributed, resilient firepower delivery. (Read the article)

    Current Developments:

    • Automated turret systems reducing crew sizes (Hanwha K9A2, KNDS RCH155)
    • Fully unmanned platforms (USMC NMESIS, Army AML)
    • Integration of robotics, AI navigation, and secure communications
    • Manned-Unmanned Teaming frameworks

    Ammunition resupply automation remains a key area for future development.

    Impact Assessment: Autonomy in artillery is moving rapidly from concept to implementation, driven by operational lessons from modern conflicts. The ability to deploy significant firepower in contested areas with minimal human exposure could transform land warfare doctrine. While full autonomy presents challenges in command and control, cybersecurity, and logistics, even partial automation is already improving survivability and potentially enhancing fire rates.

    Market Outlook: Companies developing unmanned ground vehicles (Oshkosh), autonomous control systems (Lockheed Martin), advanced artillery platforms with automation features (Hanwha Defense, KNDS, Elbit Systems, Norinco), and robotic ammunition handling systems are central to this trend. AI integration for targeting assistance and autonomous execution represents a key value proposition.

    US Theater Strike Capabilities: Rebuilding America’s Reach

    Following the INF Treaty’s termination, the US is developing new conventional theater-range missile systems to counter adversary A2/AD strategies. (Read the article)

    Program Portfolio:

    • Army: Long-Range Precision Fires initiative including fielded Typhon system, Precision Strike Missile (PrSM), and hypersonic Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon (LRHW/”Dark Eagle”)
    • Navy: Conventional Prompt Strike (CPS) hypersonic program for Zumwalt-class destroyers and Virginia-class submarines
    • Air Force: Hypersonic Attack Cruise Missile (HACM)

    These programs support broader operational concepts like Multi-Domain Operations, with Multi-Domain Task Forces and planned Theater Fires Commands as implementation vehicles.

    Impact Assessment: The US is undertaking a comprehensive, multi-service approach to restore and enhance conventional long-range strike capabilities. The strategy combines the rapid fielding of adapted systems (Typhon) with the longer-term development of advanced hypersonic technologies. While hypersonic programs promise unique operational advantages, they continue to face technical challenges and potential schedule delays.

    Market Outlook: Major defense contractors, including Lockheed Martin, Raytheon Technologies, and Northrop Grumman, maintain significant involvement in missile development, hypersonic research, and C4ISR systems. L3Harris leads in space-based sensors, while multiple primes contribute to missile defense programs. Investment considerations should account for extended development timelines and inherent technological risks in advanced programs.

    Active Protection Systems: The New Essential for Combat Vehicles

    Evolving anti-armor threats drive widespread adoption of Hard-Kill Active Protection Systems (APS) for vehicle survivability. (Read the article)

    Mature Systems Entering Service:

    • Rafael’s Trophy: Using EFP interceptors, combat-proven in multiple conflicts
    • Elbit’s Iron Fist: Employing blast-fragmentation interceptors for reduced collateral effects
    • Russia’s Arena-M: Focused on defending against top-attack threats
    • Turkey’s AKKOR/PULAT systems: Domestic capability development
    • China’s GL-6: Features high-elevation intercept capability
    • Rheinmetall’s StrikeShield: Integrating components within hybrid armor

    National development programs are also advancing in South Korea (KAPS) and India (DRDO).

    Impact Assessment: APS technology has reached significant maturity and has been influenced by observations from Ukraine and other conflicts. System diversity reflects different operational philosophies and threat priorities. Challenges remain in integration complexity, cost considerations, size/weight/power constraints, and effectiveness against evolving threats like coordinated swarms and hypersonic weapons.

    Market Outlook: Key industry participants include Rafael (partnered with Leonardo DRS and EuroTrophy), Elbit Systems, Rheinmetall, Aselsan, KBM, Norinco, and Hanwha Systems. The APS market is experiencing rapid growth as nations equip new and existing vehicle fleets. Companies providing advanced sensors, high-speed processors, novel interceptor technologies, and systems integration expertise are well-positioned.

    India Finalizes €7B Rafale M Naval Aircraft Deal

    India has concluded an Inter-Governmental Agreement with France for 26 Dassault Rafale M fighter aircraft (22 single-seat, 4 trainer variants) for the Indian Navy. The aircraft will primarily serve aboard the INS Vikrant aircraft carrier, replacing the aging MiG-29K fleet. (Read the article)

    Deal Highlights:

    • Comprehensive package including weaponry, training, and logistical support
    • Provisions for upgrading India’s existing Air Force Rafale fleet
    • Deliveries scheduled between mid-2028 and 2031
    • Engineering challenges with Rafale M dimensions relative to Indian carrier elevator systems
    • Transfer of Technology provisions supporting India’s self-reliance objectives

    Impact Assessment: This acquisition provides the Indian Navy with a necessary capability enhancement while awaiting the indigenous Twin Engine Deck-Based Fighter (TEDBF). The Rafale M offers substantial improvements over the MiG-29K in sensors, electronic warfare, and armament capabilities, with additional logistical benefits from commonality with the IAF fleet. The elevator compatibility issue presents a notable operational constraint requiring effective mitigation strategies.

    Market Implications: Dassault Aviation is the primary beneficiary, alongside key suppliers Thales, Safran, and MBDA. Local MRO and production capabilities will benefit Indian industrial partners like HAL and private sector firms. Indigenous weapon developers such as BDL will participate in integration efforts.

    SpearUAV’s Viper 300 loitering weapon is contained in a launch cylinder that can be attached to the turret side, launch the attack drone automatically, control its mission under the armor, and be reloaded manually by the crew. On the right, a UAV interceptor variant is displayed. Photo: Defense-Update

    Israel Evaluating Tank-Launched Loitering Munitions

    The Israeli Ministry of Defence is evaluating proposals for integrating loitering munition systems onto Merkava 4 main battle tanks, responding to operational lessons from urban combat. (Read the article)

    Program Objectives:

    • Provide tank crews with organic beyond-line-of-sight reconnaissance
    • Enable immediate engagement of concealed threats
    • Enhance situational awareness without external assets
    • Deliver precise firepower inherent to the platform

    Impact Assessment: This integration represents a logical evolution for armored warfare, particularly in complex urban environments. By providing autonomous reconnaissance and strike capabilities, it reduces dependence on external assets and shortens the engagement cycle for proximate threats.

    Market Outlook: Israeli firms specializing in loitering munitions (UVision, Aeronautics Group, potentially Rafael and Elbit) are considered likely candidates. This initiative may drive further innovation in miniaturized, ruggedized systems optimized for vehicular integration, potentially creating export opportunities.

    India Tests Barak MRSAM Air Defense System

    India has successfully conducted operational tests of the Barak MRSAM (Medium Range Surface-to-Air Missile) system from both naval (INS Surat) and land-based platforms. The system represents a joint development between Israel’s IAI and India’s DRDO.

    System Capabilities:

    • Integrated defense against various aerial threats
    • Operational range up to approximately 70 kilometers
    • Advanced radar and command & control systems
    • Mobile launcher configurations

    Impact Assessment: These successful trials confirm the operational readiness of the MRSAM system across multiple branches of the Indian military, establishing it as a crucial component of India’s layered air defense architecture. The joint development nature highlights the strategic defense partnership between India and Israel.

    Market Implications: IAI serves as the lead Israeli partner, while Indian collaborators include DRDO and manufacturers under the ‘Make in India’ initiative (BEL, BDL). Continued program success and potential follow-on orders would benefit these participating entities.

    Conclusion: The Evolving Defense Landscape

    The defense technology sector continues its rapid transformation, driven by conflict observations and strategic competition. Low-cost autonomous systems are reshaping battlefield dynamics across domains while autonomy increasingly becomes essential for survivability and effectiveness. Major powers invest heavily in next-generation strike capabilities, particularly hypersonic technologies, while protection systems evolve to counter increasingly sophisticated threats.

    The prevailing trend points toward systems characterized by greater intelligence, numerosity, autonomy, and resilience across all operational domains—presenting both challenges and opportunities for defense planners and industry participants alike.

    Navy Advances Sea-Based Hypersonic Missile Program with Successful Cold-Gas Launch

    Conventional Prompt Strike (CPS) - pursues a common hypersonic missile that is being developed in partnership with the U.S. Army. Photo: DOD

    Last week, the U.S. Navy’s Strategic Systems Programs (SSP) reached a significant milestone in the development of its sea-based hypersonic capability with a successful end-to-end flight test of the ‘Dark Eagle’ conventional hypersonic missile at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Florida. This test demonstrated the Navy’s innovative cold-gas launch approach, crucial for the Conventional Prompt Strike (CPS) system that will be deployed on Navy platforms.

    This flight test is part of the ongoing program for the common All Up Round (AUR) missile, a collaborative effort with the U.S. Army’s Rapid Capabilities and Critical Technologies Office. Notably, the ‘Dark Eagle’ missile will be fielded to both the Navy and the Army, equipping the Army’s Multi-Domain Task Forces (MDTF) as well. Two additional successful end-to-end flight tests of the AUR were conducted in 2024. The cold-gas launch system allows the safe ejection of the missile from naval vessels before its engine ignites.

    U.S. Navy Strategic Systems Programs conducted a cold-gas launch of a conventional hypersonic missile on the path to Navy fielding in Cape Canaveral, Fla. The common hypersonic missile is being developed in partnership with the U.S. Army.

    Vice Adm. Johnny R. Wolfe Jr, Director of SSP, highlighted the importance of this achievement in bringing a safe and reliable hypersonic capability to the Navy and, by extension, to the Army. The CPS program has undergone extensive testing, including the use of an In-Air Launch test facility, to validate the launch method for its initial deployment on the USS ZUMWALT. The data collected from this test will be vital for the continued development and production of the AUR and the integration of the cold-gas launch system on surface ships.

    The rapid advancement of sea-based hypersonic strike weapons, like the ‘Dark Eagle’, significantly enhances U.S. deterrence and provides a crucial advantage in conventional strike capabilities for both naval and land forces. Secretary of the Navy John Phelan emphasized the speed, range, and survivability of these weapons as essential for integrated deterrence, noting their unmatched capabilities for warfighters across domains. This successful cold gas launch marks a key step towards realizing this enhanced strategic capability.

    12 CPS missiles will be deployed on each of the three Zumwalt class destroyers. Photo: HII

    Israel Pursues Loitering Weapons for Main Battle Tanks

    SpearUAV's Viper 300 loitering weapon is contained in a launch cylinder that can be attached on the turret side, launch the attack drone automatically, control its mission under the armor, and be reloaded manually by the crew. The company also offers the Multi Canister Launcher (MCL) as a compact system that enables swift deployment of the Viper 300 UAS, with immediate launch from any military platform, whether manned or unmanned, in motion or stationary. Photo: Defense-Update

    The Israeli Ministry of Defense (IMOD) is evaluating initial proposals from some local companies to decide what types of loitering weapon systems will be deployed on Israel’s Defense Forces (IDF) Merkava 4 main battle tank. The operational requirements match the experience gathered from the extensive operation of this MBT in the ongoing war.

    The idea to equip the MBT with advanced loitering weapon systems stems from the initial experience accumulated by the IDF’ armored corps during the fighting in the highly densely populated Gaza. In the fighting in such an urban area, the tank is more vulnerable to advanced anti-tank weapons.

    The initial idea is to equip the tank with special loitering weapon systems that will enable the tank commander to “see beyond the building” and, immediately after, attack the enemy using direct fire by the tank’s gun or other supporting weapons that enables indirect attack such as a loitering weapon, or another drone launched by the tank (such as the Viper 300 or 750).

    Tal Inbar, a senior defense analyst, said there is an urgent operational need to enhance the crew’s situational awareness, especially the tank commander’s field of view. “a loitering weapon system with an EO payload will allow the tank commander to locate hidden threats and destroy them in real-time. This is needed in very high priority.”

    A number of Israeli defense companies, like Uvision, Elbit Systems, Spear UAV, BlueBirs UAS and Aeronautics, have developed advanced loitering weapon systems that are used by many countries, including the U.S. RAFAEL have already included Spear UAS’s Viper loitering weapons in their Samson 30 turret configuration displayed at the DSEI 202 exhibition.

    The loitering weapon systems that will be carried by the MBT will have added capabilities to fulfill the triple task – improve situational awareness, detect and destroy the enemy.

     

    Active Protection Systems (APS) – An Evolving Shield

    The armored vehicle faces an ever-growing array of threats in the unforgiving calculus of modern warfare. Sophisticated anti-tank missiles, smart loitering munitions, Rocket-Propelled Grenades (RPGs), and even simple drones adapted for attack can disable or destroy heavily armored and costly tanks and infantry carriers. This reality, brought into sharp focus by the intense fighting and heavy vehicle losses seen in conflicts like the one in Ukraine, has propelled Active Protection Systems (APS) from a niche technology to a vital necessity.

    Unlike passive armor, which absorbs or deflects an impact, and ‘soft-kill’ APS that uses optical or electronic countermeasures effective primarily against guided missiles, ‘hard-kill’ APS acts as an outer shield, detecting incoming threats and neutralizing them in mid-air at fractions of seconds before they strike. This article tells the story of several leading APS, exploring how they work, what makes them unique, and how they shape the battlefield defenses of today and tomorrow.

    Developments of Hard Kill APS began as conceptual studies and technology demonstrations in the late 1990s in Russia, Germany, the US, and Israel. However, these systems did not mature due to their complexity, concerns of collateral damage risk, and the limited protection they could provide. These systems reached full-scale development in the first decade of the 21st century only in Israel, which selected APS to equip Israeli AFVs.

    Two of the four EO+radar sensors and one of the two pedestal-countermeasure mounts are seen in the RAFAEL display of the Samson 0mm remotely controlled turret at the DSEI 2023. Photo: Defense-Update

    Trophy – The Combat-Hardened APS

    Born from the hard lessons of the 2006 Lebanon War, where Israeli Merkava tanks faced unexpected vulnerability, Rafael’s Trophy system emerged as a pioneering solution to protect Armored Fighting Vehicles (AFV) actively. Its first combat experience came in 2011, and since then, it has built an unmatched reputation through extensive operational use, proving its mettle in numerous engagements in the ongoing conflicts in Gaza and South Lebanon.

    Trophy operates with four radar panels that constantly scan the surroundings. When a threat—be it an RPG or an Anti-Tank Guided Missile (ATGM)—is detected and deemed hostile, the system reacts instantly. One of its two rotating interceptors snaps toward the threat and fires a volley of small, Explosively Formed Projectiles (EFP). This intercept is a focused countermeasure designed to hit the incoming warhead or its fuzing mechanism directly, neutralizing it safely away from the vehicle, with minimal risk to dismounted soldiers nearby. Recognizing the evolving battlefield, Rafael has adapted Trophy to counter drone threats and top-attack missiles, ensuring this Trophy remains relevant against the most modern threats.

    Its success has led to widespread adoption beyond Israel; American Abrams tanks, in partnership with Leonardo DRS. British Challenger 3s, and Germany’s newest Leopard 2A8s are all receiving its protection, with European needs handled by the EuroTrophy consortium formed by Rafael, GDELS and KNDS. Recent moves, like a 2025 agreement to explore production in India via L&T, show its continued global significance.

    Iron Fist APS mounted on the IDF Eitan 8×8 wheeled armored vehicle. Photo: IDF

    Iron Fist – The Flexible Defender

    The Iron Fist subsystems shown at the AUSA exhibition. Two EO+radar systems, a twin launcher and the control system are displayed. Photo: Defense-Update.
    The Iron Fist subsystems were shown at the AUSA exhibition. Two EO+radar systems, a twin launcher, and the control system are displayed. Photo: Defense-Update.

    Elbit Systems’ Iron Fist offers a different approach to the active protection of AFVs. It is a family of systems originally developed by IMI in parallel to the Trophy. Iron Fist is adaptable to vehicles ranging from lighter troop carriers to heavy tanks. Like Trophy, it uses radar and optical sensors to perceive incoming threats. However, its primary defense mechanism differs. Instead of aiming for a direct hit, Iron Fist’s trainable launchers fire an explosive interceptor that detonates near the incoming missile or rocket. The resulting shockwave is designed to knock the projectile off course, damage its aerodynamics, or prematurely detonate its warhead, all while minimizing the spray of lethal fragments that could endanger nearby infantry – a crucial consideration in urban warfare or combined arms operations. This operational concept makes it effective against elevated threats, a capability that has been proven in numerous tests.

    This makes it an attractive option for vehicles like the Netherlands’ CV90 IFVs and Israel’s own Eitan APC and D9 bulldozers. It has also been selected for the South Korean Redback IFV developed for Australia. For heavier threats, the Iron Fist tackles the formidable challenge of high-speed kinetic energy (KE) penetrators – the Armor armor-piercing fin-stabilized Discarding Sabot (APFSDS) or ‘long rod’ darts fired by other tanks – by attempting to disrupt their stable flight path before the impact. After resolving some initial issues with power and integration, the US Army is fielding the system on its Bradley fighting vehicles in 2025, highlighting its counter-drone capabilities as well. A soft-kill laser jammer can also be integrated into the system.

    Two modules of ARENA-M APS are mounted at the rear area of this T-72B3M tank.

    Arena-M – Russia’s Answer to Direct and Top Attack

    The brutal realities of the Ukraine conflict forced Russia to reassess its vehicle protection strategies. Older APS like Drozd or the new Afganit (seen on the T-14 Armata) proved inadequate against the top-attack missiles, which strike tanks where their armor is typically weakest. Enter Arena-M, developed by KBM. Selected in 2024 specifically to counter these modern threats, Arena-M takes a different architectural path as it primarily utilizes external modules that are easier to fit into different armored vehicles.

    Instead of rotating launchers, it employs numerous containers arranged around the turret. These house directional fragmentation charges. When the system’s radars detect an incoming threat coming horizontally or from above, one of the charges ejects from the optimally placed container, creating a precisely aimed curtain of high-velocity fragments about six meters from the tank. The goal is to shred the incoming missile or drone before it hits. Tested against captured Western weapons like Javelins and NLAWs, Russia is now actively deploying Arena-M, with systems appearing on T-72B3M tanks in Ukraine. Models of the system were showcased at the IDEX 2025 defense exhibition in the UAE. While its battlefield effectiveness is still being assessed, its design clearly reflects Moscow’s urgent need to counter the top-attack threat that has plagued its armored forces.

    ARENA-M APS system modified to fit externally to the T-72B3M. Displayed by KBM at the IDEX 2025 exhibition. Photo: Defense-Update
    AKKOR APS mounted on the Turkish Altay tank. The system features a mix of countermeasures that include soft and hard kill. Photo: Defense-Update

    AKKOR – Turkey’s APS Approach

    Developed by Turkey’s defense giant Aselsan, AKKOR reflects a national drive for self-sufficiency in critical defense technologies. Architecturally resembling systems like Iron Fist with its trainable launchers guided by Aselsan radar and IR sensors, AKKOR distinguishes itself through its choice of countermeasures that include soft and hard kill. This design choice prioritizes minimizing collateral damage – a key consideration for urban operations. AKKOR has undergone extensive testing against various threats (including Kornet ATGMs) and is slated for deployment on Turkey’s indigenous Altay main battle tank starting in 2025, as well as being retrofitted onto upgraded Turkish Leopard 2A4s. Its current configuration offers some capability against shallow-angle aerial attacks and drones, reflecting an awareness of these growing threats.

    PULAT APS mounted on a Kaplan AFV. Photo: Defense-Update

    PULAT – A Shield for Close-Quarters

    Sometimes, operational needs demand immediate solutions. For Turkey, facing combat losses in Syria and while awaiting the full maturation of AKKOR, that solution came in the form of PULAT. Developed in cooperation with Ukrainian expertise and based on their Zaslon-L system, PULAT is a distinctly “close-in” defense.

    It consists of several self-contained modules mounted around the vehicle. When activated, these modules, each containing a small radar and a cylindrical fragmentation warhead, stand ready for action, protruding slightly from the tank’s passive armor outline. If a threat is detected as it gets dangerously close, the module’s radar triggers its warhead, creating a localized sphere of fragments designed to neutralize the threat just meters from the hull.

    Deployed since 2018 on upgraded Turkish M-60T tanks, PULAT has gained valuable combat experience in Syria and Iraq, proving itself as a robust, reactive layer of last-ditch defense. Its relative simplicity and proven effectiveness have led to wider deployment on Turkish M-60Ts (originally, the Israeli-modified Sabra) and Leopard 2A4s. Strangely, there were no reports of Ukrainian army tanks using the Zaslon system despite the extensive modifications performed on existing and imported tanks and the heavy losses suffered from Russian anti-tank missiles, artillery, mines, and drones.

    GL-6 is a new Chinese APS displayed at IDEX 2025 by Norinco. Photo: Defense-Update

    GL-6 – China’s APS Choice

    China’s Norinco has also entered the APS arena with systems like the GL-6, an evolution of earlier designs. Like Iron Fist with its trainable launchers, the GL-6 uses a fragment-cloud kill mechanism. The system integrates four radar panels for detection and two interceptor launchers, each typically armed with two interceptors. These interceptors are designed to detonate about 10 meters from the vehicle, neutralizing threats like RPGs and ATGMs. A key feature of the GL-6 is the impressive elevation range of its launchers – capable of aiming up to 60-70 degrees. This suggests a strong inherent capability against top attack or diving threats and weaponized drones, surpassing the elevation limits of some other systems. Recent observations in 2025 show that the GL-6 is fitted not just to main battle tanks like the Type 99A but also significantly to lighter platforms like the ZBD-03 airborne infantry fighting vehicle. This indicates a concerted effort by the PLA to extend advanced protection across its forces, including rapid deployment units.

    KAPS – South Korea’s Indigenous APS

    South Korea began developing its own hard-kill Active Protection System, known as KAPS, in the mid-2000s, led by the Agency for Defense Development (ADD) and Hanwha Systems. Designed specifically for the K2 Black Panther main battle tank, KAPS utilizes radar and infrared trackers to identify incoming threats like RPGs and ATGMs out to 150 meters. When a threat closes to within 10-15 meters, one of the system’s two trainable launchers fires a fragmentation grenade to intercept it. The system demonstrated successful tests against RPG-7 and Metis-M missiles back in 2012. However, KAPS wasn’t integrated into the initial batches of K2 tanks entering service around 2014. Concerns about its high cost (estimated at $600,000 per unit then), potential danger to nearby infantry from its fragmentation interceptors, and possible interference with the K2’s existing soft-kill systems led to its deferral. The plan now is to incorporate KAPS into the future K2 Product Improvement Program (PIP) variant. Development work continues, with efforts reported in 2023 to enhance KAPS for urban combat scenarios, including better defense against drones, potentially at a lower cost. While export versions of the K2 often feature other APS solutions (like variants of Trophy), the original KAPS technology remains a national development, recently seen integrated on a prototype N-WAV wheeled armored vehicle in late 2023.

    The Hungarian Army selected the StrikeShield hull-mounted APS for the Rheinmetall KF-41.

    StrikeShield – A Hybrid Defender

    Germany’s Rheinmetall offers a distinctly different approach with its StrikeShield APS, the third generation of its Active Defence System (ADS) technology. Rather than relying solely on standalone launchers, StrikeShield embodies a “hybrid” layered protection philosophy, integrating its components directly within modular armor tiles. This means the sensors and countermeasures are sandwiched between layers of passive armor, providing physical protection for the APS components while the APS elements themselves contribute to the overall ballistic integrity.

    This distributed system uses low-power radar and optical sensors to detect threats like ATGMs and RPGs. When an engagement occurs, StrikeShield employs a directed energy blast countermeasure very close to the vehicle (within about 10 meters) to neutralize the incoming projectile before impact. A key advantage of this design is its extremely low electromagnetic signature due to the low-power radar, making the protected vehicle much harder for adversaries to detect electronically. Rheinmetall also stated StrikeShield addresses the challenge of defeating high-speed kinetic energy penetrators, having successfully demonstrated this concept in testing. This advanced system achieved a major success in 2021 when Hungary selected it to equip its entire fleet of 209 new Lynx KF41 infantry fighting vehicles, integrating it into the vehicle’s innovative hybrid armor tiles. The US Army has also subjected StrikeShield to extensive testing, evaluating its potential for future American armored vehicles.

    India – Charting its Own APS Course

    India, with its vast armored fleet, is actively pursuing APS capabilities through a dual-track approach. The Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) lays the groundwork for an indigenous system. At the Aero India show in 2025, DRDO showcased developmental components, including advanced radar panels designed for long-range (4km) detection of small, stealthy targets like drones and ATGMs, aiming for near-hemispheric coverage with multiple panels. They also work on trainable launchers (4 interceptors each) for 20-50m intercepts. A full indigenous system is anticipated by the end of the decade. Simultaneously, recognizing immediate needs, India issued a formal request in early February 2025 seeking off-the-shelf APS solutions for its T-90S ‘Bhishma’ tanks. This request specifically highlighted the need to counterattack drones and loitering munitions, reflecting global threat trends. This follows earlier stalled efforts to acquire Russia’s Arena-E.

    Conclusion

    These diverse Active Protection Systems illustrate the recent evolution in armored warfare. From the combat-proven reliability of Trophy to the flexible defense of Iron Fist, the top-attack focus of Arena-M, the integrated hybrid approach of StrikeShield, the low-collateral design of AKKOR, the close-in shield of PULAT, the high-elevation reach of GL-6, each system reflects different requirements, technological choices, and operational priorities. What unites them is the recognition that passive armor alone is no longer sufficient. As threats become faster, smarter, and attack from multiple vectors, sophisticated, multi-layered defenses incorporating APS are essential. The ongoing integration of artificial intelligence, improved sensors, and potentially new kill mechanisms like directed energy promises even more capable shields in the future, ensuring that armored vehicles can continue to play their decisive role on the battlefield.

    The Autonomous Artillery Revolution: Reshaping Modern Firepower

    An illustration of an Oshkosh ROGUE Fires loaded with a six-GMLRS rocket pod. Image: Oshkosh Defense

    The battlefield is undergoing a quiet revolution, particularly in how firepower is delivered. Missiles, rockets, and artillery – the traditional long arms of land warfare – are increasingly shedding their human crews. This shift towards autonomous fire support systems is not a distant concept but an accelerating trend, driven by the harsh realities of modern conflict and enabled by rapid technological advancements.

    From defense exhibitions showcasing futuristic concepts to real-world deployments demonstrating strategic impact, a clear picture emerges: unmanned systems are already assuming some missions and, if proven effective, could reshape the future of multi-domain operations. This article explores the key trends revealed through these global activities, highlighting how autonomy is becoming central to survivability, operational effectiveness, and the evolution of military doctrines.

    The Imperative for Autonomy – Survivability

    The primary catalyst for the autonomous fires revolution is the brutal demand for survivability on increasingly transparent and lethal battlefields. Lessons learned, particularly from conflicts like the one in Ukraine, starkly illustrate the vulnerability of traditional, crewed artillery and its supply chain, both in position and on the move, to rapid detection and counterattack, often facilitated by ubiquitous drones and loitering weapons. This has created an urgent imperative to remove personnel from the direct line of fire. Automating the firing and reloading processes directly contributes to improved survivability by reducing human exposure. Unmanned systems, capable of rapid “shoot-and-scoot” maneuvers without pausing to secure a crew, offer a direct answer to this challenge.

    Evolving Doctrines

    Robotic and autonomous artillery systems have roles in all types of warfare, including asymmetric conflicts, near-peer, and peer warfare. Simultaneously, evolving military doctrines like the U.S. Marine Corps’ Expeditionary Advanced Base Operations (EABO) and the Army’s Multi-Domain Operations (MDO) demand forces that are distributed, mobile, resilient, and capable of operating within contested enemy territory. Autonomous platforms are essential enablers for these concepts, making the deployment of significant firepower to dispersed, high-risk forward locations feasible by minimizing human risk.

    NSM anti-ship missile fired from the NMESIS system on a test flight. Photo: USMC

    The strategic impact was vividly demonstrated by the USMC’s deployment of the unmanned NMESIS (Navy-Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System) anti-ship system to the Philippines’ Luzon Strait during Exercise Balikatan 2025. NMESIS uniquely pairs the versatile, unmanned Oshkosh ROGUE-Fires UGV with long-range Naval Strike Missiles, providing a land-based anti-ship capability crucial for EABO’s sea denial mission. This activity showcased the ability to project relevant A2/AD capabilities from expeditionary land bases, directly supporting EABO principles and sending clear strategic signals, arguably made more palatable by the system’s unmanned nature. The Corps has deployed new mobile air defense (MADIS) drone-killing vehicles to protect these strategic assets from loitering weapons attacks.

    Autonomous Multi-domain Launcher (AML) undergoing firing tests at Yuma Proving Ground in April 2024. Photo: US Army

    Technological Enablers

    Significant technological advancements fulfill these operational needs. Sophisticated robotics, AI, secure communications, and mature drive-by-wire vehicle architectures establish the foundation. A key trend observed in development and experimentation, such as with Lockheed Martin’s Autonomous HIMARS (AML) tests, focuses on applying electro-optical sensor suites for navigation and perception. The AML aims to replicate the proven firepower of HIMARS on an unmanned chassis, uniquely emphasizing autonomous operation using stealthy, passive sensors to enhance survivability. AML experiments reflect the maturing of autonomous capabilities in navigation, convoy operations, and executing fire missions, often within a Manned-Unmanned Teaming (MUM-T) framework.

    The Path to Autonomous Artillery

    The path to full autonomy often follows an evolutionary trajectory. The Swedish truck-mounted Archer SPH was the first to introduce an autonomous gun turret. The IDF is also fielding a new 10×10 truck-mounted SPH called Roem, with an autonomous gun turret developed by Elbit Systems. Systems like Hanwha’s K9A2 Thunder Self-Propelled Howitzer (SPH) feature automated turrets that reduce the crew size from five to three while increasing the rate of fire. KNDS’s RCH155 mounts a fully automated, unmanned 155mm gun module onto a highly mobile Boxer 8×8 chassis. Its unique capability allows operation by just two crew members, safely housed in the drive module, with the system even capable of firing on the move. The Chinese company Norinco has recently introduced the SH-16 SPH, which can be utilized in human or autonomous modes of operation.

    It is important to note that automation can sometimes result in a slower process compared to an experienced and highly motivated human team. Therefore, expectations for automated processes should focus on overall performance benefits – enhanced survivability, sustained firing rates, and achieving the desired effect on the target – rather than just comparing the cycle time of an autonomous howitzer to that of a human-operated system. These automated systems pave the way for fully unmanned successors, such as the conceptual K9A3 Thunder, which aims for full autonomy and an extended range, or future autonomous versions of the RCH155, which can fire on the move practically.

    Hanwha displayed the K10 ammunition automatic reloader with their K9A1 self propelled howitzer at the AUSA exhibition in 2022. Photo: Defense-Update.
    An optionally manned future variant of the Thunder SPH family – K9A3.
    An autonomous launch vehicle of the Chunmoo K239 rocket system.

    Logistics, Teaming, and Beyond

    Defense exhibitions provide a window into this evolution. We see concepts pushing towards full autonomy (K9A3), adaptable platforms like the ROGUE-Fires shown in multiple roles, and even the integration of legacy systems onto robotic platforms. A forward-looking trend, highlighted in KNDS’s concepts, is the move towards automating the entire logistics chain, specifically through the combined deployment of robotic howitzer carriers and autonomous resupply vehicles, operating in a distributed manner to minimize exposure. This concept recognizes that sustaining high-tempo fires requires automating support functions beyond just reloading the guns. Furthermore, concepts like Manned-Unmanned Teaming (MUM-T), tested in exercises with systems like AML, explore how autonomy can act as a force multiplier, allowing smaller crews to control more assets.

    The Way Ahead

    The shift towards autonomous missiles, rockets, and artillery is a defining trend in modern land warfare, clearly visible through global defense activities. Driven by the urgent need for enhanced survivability on lethal battlefields and the requirements of new operational doctrines like EABO and MDO, this transformation is enabled by rapid technological progress in robotics, AI, and sensors. Key trends revealed include a clear evolution from crew-reducing automation to fully unmanned platforms, emphasizing stealth through passive sensing, developing flexible, multi-role unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs), and nascent efforts to automate logistics, particularly ammunition resupply. Real-world deployments and exercises are proving the operational viability and strategic impact of these systems. While there are challenges in logistics, command, control, and cybersecurity, the trajectory is clear: autonomous systems are becoming integral to delivering decisive firepower effectively and survivable across the multi-domain battlefield.

    The New Air War: How Rapid and Cheap Manufacturing of Drones and Missiles Are Remaking Conflict

    HX-2 and Resilience Factories have been designed with high throughput and scale from the outset. Photo: Helsing

    From the battlefields of Ukraine to the contested waters of the Red Sea and the skies over the Middle East, a profound shift is underway in modern warfare. The era of air power being solely the domain of expensive, crewed aircraft is rapidly giving way to the age of massed, low-cost, and increasingly autonomous aerial systems. One-way attack Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (OWA-UAVs), often dubbed “kamikaze drones,” and sophisticated loitering munitions are proliferating at an unprecedented rate, fundamentally altering tactical realities and strategic calculations for nations big and small.

    This transformation isn’t merely about new hardware; it’s driven by disruptive factors. Perhaps the most significant is the “democratization” of air power. Systems like Iran’s Shahed series, estimated to cost around $20,000 per unit, or the even cheaper First-Person View (FPV) drones adapted from commercial components (costing as little as $500), dramatically lower the barrier to entry for projecting force. State actors like Russia leverage thousands of Shaheds against Ukrainian infrastructures, while non-state groups like the Houthis use similar Iranian-supplied systems to disrupt global shipping in the Red Sea. This accessibility empowers a wider range of actors, complicating global security.

    Closely linked is the brutal economic logic of attrition these systems impose. Defenders face unsustainable cost-exchange ratios, often forced to expend multi-million-dollar interceptor missiles to counter threats costing a tiny fraction of that amount. Russia’s Shahed campaign, despite high interception rates (often 80-90%), remains cost-effective for Moscow because the sheer volume saturates defenses, and the cost per target struck is far lower than conventional missiles. Similarly, tactical systems like FPV drones or Russia’s Lancet loitering munition (around $35,000) can destroy or disable tanks, artillery, and air defense systems worth millions, fundamentally shifting the economics of battlefield losses.

    A full-size view of the Cummings Aerospace Hellhound S3 D printed jet-powered drone. (Image taken from ‘The Merge’ podcast video, https://themerge.co/p/hellhound)

    The psychological dimension is also potent. The constant threat from above, amplified by the ubiquitous sharing of drone strike footage online, exerts significant pressure on troop morale and shapes public perception of the conflict. Soldiers face the unnerving reality that a cheap, remotely piloted weapon could target them individually at any moment.

    Fueling this revolution is a technological engine built on three key pillars: Additive Manufacturing (AM), Artificial Intelligence (AI), and Modular Open Systems Architecture (MOSA).

    AM, or 3D printing, enables the rapid prototyping and production of complex, lightweight drone components. Companies like Firestorm Labs are pioneering expeditionary manufacturing, using containerized 3D printing cells to produce and repair drones directly near the front lines, drastically shortening logistics chains. Others, like Cummings Aerospace, leverage AM to iterate designs rapidly and cost-effectively to produce high-speed loitering munitions.

    AI is transforming drones from remotely piloted tools into increasingly autonomous systems. AI algorithms enhance navigation (especially in GPS-denied environments), enable automated target recognition (ATR) that speeds up the kill chain, allow for autonomous decision-making during terminal attack phases, and increase resilience against electronic warfare. Critically, AI is the key enabler for drone swarms – large numbers of drones coordinating autonomously to overwhelm defenses or perform complex tasks.

    MOSA provides the architectural flexibility needed for this rapid evolution. By using standardized interfaces, manufacturers can easily swap components – sensors, warheads, communication systems, AI processors – allowing for rapid upgrades, mission customization, and easier integration across different platforms and forces.

    This technological convergence is spawning a new generation of weapon systems. In the United States, startups like Anduril are developing families of autonomous systems, including the air-launched Altius drone and the modular Barracuda cruise missile, designed for “hyperscale production,” leveraging their Lattice AI software. Firestorm focuses on mission-adaptable UAS like Tempest, built via their expeditionary, scalable 3D printing xCells. Cummings Aerospace offers the high-speed, 3D-printed Hellhound loitering munition. Established players like AeroVironment continue to supply systems like the Switchblade loitering munition used extensively by Ukraine.

    Europe is also rapidly innovating.

    501st Marine Infantry member holding a FPV drone. Image: Ukraine Ministry of Defence.

    The Franco-German KNDS is developing loitering munitions like the jet-powered LARINAE and the MATARIS family, leveraging its munitions expertise. German AI defense company Helsing is mass-producing its AI-driven HX-2 strike drone, heavily supplied to Ukraine, from dedicated “Resilience Factories.” Competitor Stark Defence, also German, offers the Virtus VTOL loitering munition, incorporating AI and lessons from Ukraine.

    Since 2022, Ukraine has implemented rapid scaling of drone production for 2.5–5 million units annually, a trend that demonstrates the effectiveness of distributed manufacturing in modern warfare. This model contrasts with centralized approaches like Anduril’s hyperscale facilities or Helsing’s sovereign factories but shares key resilience principles. Over 150 manufacturers, ranging from state-owned enterprises to volunteer-led workshops, operate across Ukraine.

    This “chaotic arsenal” of producers reduces vulnerability to Russian strikes and enables rapid iteration. Monthly production surged from 20,000 drones in early 2024 to 200,000 by January 2025, with plans to exceed 2.5 million drones in 2025 (including 5 million FPV drones annually if funded). Competition among manufacturers drives advancements like fiber-optic control systems (immune to jamming), AI-guided drones, and hybrid missile-drone systems like the Palianytsia with 3,000 km range.

    Israel, a long-standing pioneer, continues to advance its capabilities. Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) produces the combat-proven Harop loitering munition known for its long endurance and range. Rafael Advanced Defense Systems offers the tactical Spike FireFly loitering munition and is partnering with General Atomics to produce the Bullseye cruise missile (derived from its Ice Breaker) for the US market, emphasizing affordability and scale. The Viper 300 and 750, produced by Spear UAVs, are also designed for rapid manufacturing and operations in swarms in scale to achieve battlefield dominance rapidly. Xtend Defense is offering its line of Scorpio 500 and 1000 multirotor drones, leveraging FPV operation via wireless and fiber optics, leveraging its XOS, an open drone operating system to control drones in a ‘human-assisted’ autonomous mission. Israel is also heavily investing in counter-drone capabilities, including directed energy weapons like Iron Beam.

    SCORPIO 500 and SCORPIO 1000 are combat-proven loitering munition systems, designed for both indoor and outdoor missions. Powered by XOS, XTEND’s unified, AI-driven operating system, these drones integrate seamlessly with C2 and ATAK environments. Photo: Xtend Defense

    The rise of cheap, smart, and numerous aerial weapons signifies an irreversible shift. It demands urgent adaptation from Western militaries, requiring faster acquisition cycles, transformed industrial bases capable of affordable mass production, and doctrinal evolution. Countering these threats necessitates layered, cost-effective defenses, moving beyond expensive interceptors towards solutions like directed energy, advanced electronic warfare, and interceptor drones. Simultaneously, managing the proliferation of these technologies to state and non-state actors requires robust international controls and vigilance. The future battlefield is increasingly defined not just by the sophistication of individual platforms, but by the ability to deploy intelligent systems at scale – a reality reshaping conflict before our eyes.

    Rebuilding U.S. Theatre Strike

    The United States navigates a new era of strategic competition in the shifting sands of global power dynamics. The landscape changed dramatically following the nation’s withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in 2019, a pact with long-defined missile constraints between the US and Russia. This post-INF world, coupled with the rise of sophisticated Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) strategies employed by peer competitors like China and Russia, has spurred a concerted American effort to revitalize its theater strike capabilities. The goal is clear: develop and field a new generation of conventional missiles capable of ensuring deterrence and projecting power across vast distances, particularly in the critical Indo-Pacific region.

    Army Multi-Domain Effects

    The U.S. Army stands at the forefront of this push with its Long-Range Precision Fires (LRPF) initiative, a cornerstone of its broader Multi-Domain Operations (MDO) concept designed to counter and dismantle adversary A2/AD networks. Recognizing the need for speed, the Army adopted a rapid fielding approach with the Typhon system, officially known as the Mid-Range Capability (MRC) or Strategic Mid-Range Fires (SMRF). Instead of designing a weapon from scratch, Typhon cleverly adapts proven U.S. Navy missiles – the versatile SM-6 and the long-range Tomahawk Land Attack Cruise Missile (TLAM) – for ground launch. Housed within a mobile battery consisting of four launchers, a command center, and support vehicles, Typhon fills a crucial gap, offering strike ranges between the Army’s shorter-range Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) and its developmental Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon (LRHW).

    The strategic significance of Typhon was dramatically underscored in April 2024, when a battery was deployed over 8,000 miles via a C-17 aircraft from Joint Base Lewis-McChord (JBLM) in Washington state to Northern Luzon in the Philippines for Exercise Salaknib 24. This marked the system’s first operational overseas deployment, aimed at enhancing Philippine maritime defense and interoperability with its allies. The move, however, immediately drew sharp criticism from China and Russia, who labeled it a destabilizing provocation fueling a regional arms race. Despite the political fallout, the deployment signaled a tangible US commitment to presence and deterrence in the contested Indo-Pacific. The Army is activating more Typhon batteries, with plans for future deployments, including one to Germany in Fiscal Year 2026.

    In January 2025, the U.S. military moved its Typhon launchers – which can fire multipurpose missiles up to thousands of kilometers – from Laoag airfield in the Philippines to another location on the island of Luzon. The photo shows US personnel unloading a trailer-based launcher associated with the Typhon weapon system from a C-17A transport plane in the Philippines on April 7, 2024. Photo: US Army

    While Typhon offers a near-term solution, the Army is also pursuing longer-range capabilities through the Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) program. Designed as the successor to the aging Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), the baseline PrSM Increment 1, now entering service, already pushes beyond the old 500 km INF limit. Fired from existing HIMARS and MLRS launchers, PrSM offers double the missile capacity per launch pod compared to ATACMS. Future increments promise even greater reach and versatility: Increment 2 adds an anti-ship seeker; Increment 4 aims for ranges exceeding 1,000 km; and Increment 5 pushes further into MRBM territory. This incremental approach allows the Army to enhance its capabilities while leveraging existing infrastructure steadily. Congressional interest is also high, with recent proposals earmarking significant funding to accelerate MRBM development, potentially including entirely new designs beyond the PrSM family, which may offer greater performance at the cost of requiring new launchers.

    PrSM launched from a HIMARS launcher. Photo: US Army

    At the cutting edge of the Army’s LRPF portfolio is the Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon (LRHW), officially christened “Dark Eagle” in April 2025. This system uses the Common Hypersonic Glide Body (CHGB), a joint development with the Navy, which is launched by a ground-based booster. Traveling at speeds greater than Mach 5 and possessing significant maneuverability over its roughly 2,775 km range, Dark Eagle is designed to penetrate the most sophisticated defenses to strike high-value, time-sensitive targets. The name itself reflects its intended role: “Dark,” signifying its ability to “disintegrate adversary capabilities,” and “Eagle,” representing its speed, stealth, and precision. Despite successful flight tests in 2024 and early 2025, the program faced earlier integration challenges, pushing its initial fielding to the end of Fiscal Year 2025.

    A recent launch of a hypersonic missile developed for the Army Dark Eagle and Navy Covventional Prompt Strike (CPS) capability. The missile was launched using a ‘cold launch’ system testing a critical aspect relevant to launching the missiles from the ship launch containers. DOD photo
    After 14 months of modifications and repairs, the USS Zumwalt was relaunched at Ingalls Shipyard on December 6, 2024. Photo: HII

    Naval Conventional Prompt Strike

    The Navy, meanwhile, is pursuing its hypersonic ambitions through the Conventional Prompt Strike (CPS) program, which shares the C-HGB payload with the Army’s Dark Eagle. The Navy’s vision involves deploying this capability from the sea. The three Zumwalt-class destroyers are undergoing significant modifications, replacing their costly and ammunition-starved 155mm Advanced Gun Systems with four large-diameter tubes, each capable of holding three CPS missiles, for a total of 12 per ship. USS Zumwalt (DDG-1000) completed its tube installation in late 2024, with sea testing anticipated around 2027-2028. The long-term plan, however, focuses on integrating CPS into future Block V Virginia-class attack submarines equipped with the Virginia Payload Module (VPM), providing a stealthy, submerged launch capability, with an initial operational capability targeted for around FY2028 or FY2029.

    B-52H bomber carrying two AGM-18A Air Launched Hypersonic missiles. Photo: Air Force/Lockheed Martin

    Air Forces’ Hypersonic Attack Cruise Missile

    The Air Force is also in the hypersonic race, though its path has seen adjustments. After canceling the AGM-183A Air-Launched Rapid Response Weapon (ARRW) boost-glide program due to testing difficulties, the service is now prioritizing the Hypersonic Attack Cruise Missile (HACM). HACM is an air-breathing system using scramjet technology, aiming for operational capability around 2027 to provide air-launched standoff strikes against defended targets. Looking further ahead, the Air Force is exploring reusable hypersonic platforms for future intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) and strike missions.

    These diverse Army, Navy, and Air Force programs are not developing in isolation. They are designed to integrate into broader US military concepts, such as MDO, and are executed by specialized units, like the Army’s Multi-Domain Task Forces (MDTFs). These MDTFs, equipped with systems like Typhon and Dark Eagle, are intended to provide theater commanders with integrated capabilities across domains. New Theater Fires Commands are also planned to coordinate these long-range assets effectively.

    While pursuing these offensive capabilities, the US is acutely aware of the need for defense against similar threats. Significant investment is flowing into the development of countermeasures, particularly a layered space-based sensor network featuring the Hypersonic and Ballistic Tracking Space Sensor (HBTSS) to provide early warning and tracking data, as well as dedicated interceptors like the Glide Phase Interceptor (GPI), designed to engage maneuvering hypersonic threats.

    In essence, the United States is undertaking a comprehensive, multi-service effort to adapt its long-range strike and missile defense posture. By blending the rapid fielding of modified existing systems with the ambitious development of next-generation hypersonic weapons, the US seeks to maintain a credible deterrent and ensure its forces can operate effectively in the increasingly complex and contested security environment of the 21st century.

    India Strengthens Naval Aviation with Rafale M Procurement

    India has finalized a significant Inter-Governmental Agreement (IGA) with France, signed on April 28, 2025, to acquire 26 Rafale Marine (Rafale M) fighter jets for the Indian Navy. This deal, valued at approximately €7 Billion ($7.5 Billion or ₹63,000-₹64,000 Crore), marks the first export order for the naval Rafale and aims to modernize India’s carrier aviation capabilities, particularly aboard the indigenous aircraft carrier INS Vikrant. The procurement strengthens the Indo-French strategic partnership, especially concerning security in the Indian Ocean Region amidst China’s growing naval presence.

    The agreement covers 22 single-seat Rafale M fighters for carrier deployment and four twin-seat Rafale DH variants for land-based training, as a carrier-capable twin-seat version was not developed. The comprehensive package includes advanced weaponry like Meteor, SCALP, and Exocet missiles, simulators, training, spares, and five years of Performance-Based Logistics (PBL). Deliveries are set to begin around mid-2028 and conclude by 2030-2031. The deal also bundles upgrades for the Indian Air Force’s (IAF) existing Rafale fleet, including buddy-refueling pods for 10 jets, indicating a coordinated approach.

    Carrier Integration Challenges

    The Rafale M is the carrier variant of Dassault’s versatile 4.5 generation fighter, featuring modifications for naval operations like a reinforced undercarriage, arrestor hook, and a “jump strut” nosewheel. Crucially, trials in January 2022 at INS Hansa, Goa, confirmed its ability to operate from the Short Take-Off But Arrested Recovery (STOBAR) ski-jump configuration used on India’s carriers, INS Vikrant and INS Vikramaditya. Significant commonality (around 80%) with the IAF’s Rafales offers logistical and training advantages over its competitor, the Boeing F/A-18 Super Hornet. 

    Despite its capabilities, the Rafale M presents a significant integration challenge due to its physical dimensions and lack of folding wings in its current configuration. The aircraft’s wingspan of 10.9 meters exceeds the width of the aircraft elevators on both INS Vikrant (approximately 10 meters) and INS Vikramaditya (approximately 9.9 meters). These elevators, critical for moving aircraft between the hangar bay and the flight deck, were designed primarily for the smaller, folding-wing MiG-29K (which folds to 7.8 meters).

    This size mismatch poses considerable operational constraints. Moving the Rafale M onto the elevators requires complex maneuvers, potentially slowing the mission preparation time and cycle time for launching and recovering aircraft. This could significantly impact the operational tempo during high-intensity flight operations, a critical factor in carrier combat effectiveness.

    Several potential remedies or workarounds are reportedly being considered, though none are without challenges:

    • Tilting the Aircraft: This option involves using specialized jigs to tilt the Rafale diagonally on the elevator.
    • Removing Wingtip Rails: Detaching the missile launcher rails from the wingtips before moving the aircraft onto the elevator.
    • India-Specific Modifications: Dassault is expected to showcase an India-specific Rafale M within 18 months of the deal. If feasible, these changes could feature foldable wingtips.
    • Revising procedures and Deployments: Restricting Rafale M to flight deck operation, assigning the Rafale M exclusively to the second Indigenous Aircraft Carrier (IAC-2), which will have larger elevators.

    The F/A-18 Super Hornet, with its folding wings (reducing span to 9.32 meters), would have fit the elevators more easily. Despite this known constraint, the selection of the Rafale M underscores the weight given to other factors like IAF commonality but highlights a significant operational challenge the Navy must manage. This reinforces the long-term importance of the indigenously designed Twin Engine Deck-Based Fighter (TEDBF), which will feature folding wings tailored for Indian carriers.

    Strategic Rationale and Self-Reliance

    The Rafale M procurement addresses the urgent need to replace the Indian Navy’s unreliable MiG-29K fleet, which has suffered from poor serviceability. It is an essential ‘interim’ capability bridge until the Indigenous TEDBF becomes operational, expected around 2031-2032. The Rafale M significantly enhances the Navy’s power projection with its advanced sensors, electronic warfare suite, and potent weapons loadout, crucial for countering China’s increasing naval activities in the region.

    To align with India’s ‘Aatmanirbhar Bharat’ (Self-Reliant India) initiative, the deal includes Transfer of Technology (ToT) for integrating Indigenous weapons like Astra missiles and NASM-MR onto the Rafale M. Furthermore, it mandates establishing local production facilities for Rafale fuselage sections and Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) capabilities for engines, sensors, and weapons within India, fostering domestic industrial capacity.

    The acquisition of 26 Rafale M jets represents a major capability upgrade for the Indian Navy, replacing aging aircraft and providing a potent, modern fighter for its carriers. While serving as a stopgap pending the indigenous TEDBF, the Rafale M brings advanced technology and weaponry. However, the significant challenge posed by its non-folding wings and elevator incompatibility requires effective workarounds to avoid hindering carrier operational tempo. Despite this, the deal enhances India’s maritime deterrence in the IOR, boosts self-reliance through technology transfer and local MRO, and deepens the strategic partnership with France.

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