News Analysis

New ballistic, cruise and loitering missiles were shown by the Houthis in the recent military parade in Sanaa, Yemen. Among the new missiles were several types of precision-guided ballistic missiles, capable of attack at ranges from 300 to 1,400 km, carrying warheads weighing up to half a ton. All missiles are believed to be Iranian designed, they were likely delivered to Yemen as pre-assembled or knocked down kits.

New ballistic, cruise and loitering missiles were shown by the Houthis in the recent military parade in Sanaa, Yemen. Among the new missiles on display was the Quds-3 cruise missile, believed to be a new, longer-range variant of the Iranian Soumar cruise missile.

The Iranians and Houthis have gradually extended the range of their weapons from tens to a few hundred nautical miles. Rather than employing these weapons on board ships to extend range, they can now reach beyond 200 nm, using the new ballistic anti-ship missiles, practically blocking the movements of naval vessels well beyond Yemen's coastal waters.

When the orders were received on the 24th of February and units began rolling forward across the border, the operational forces lacked adequate planning and intelligence and did not prepare ammunition and supplies for the battle. They were unaware of the terrain and mobility constraints expected downrange and did not prepare the equipment to deal with those obstacles. Neither they had the foresight of an alternative' plan B' in case that 'decapitation' move failed.

By February 2022 the Russian forces deployed on the Russian-Ukraine border included 10 Russian armies gathered from the Eastern, Central, Western, and Southern military districts, all these forces arrived in Western Russia to take part in extensive military exercises with Belarus. After completing those exercises, about 120 Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) were deployed along the Ukraine borders, ready to move south and west into Ukraine if ordered. The units from the Southern District have joined two armies of Russian-backed Ukrainian separatists from the Donbas. 

Ukraine is running low on Eastern standard ammunition (152mm, 122mm, rockets). That is why obtaining long-range artillery from the West was the #1 priority for Ukraine. Once Ukraine deploys western 155mm artillery on their front line, obtaining supplies of suitable ammunition from neighboring NATO countries would be easier and more available.

The collapse of the first phase has led to a fires-heavy campaign. The Russians have used most weapon types in their arsenal, from volleys of long-range rockets, missiles, cruise missiles, and aerial bombing. The rockets, artillery, and missile barrages were devastating, particularly against infrastructures and urban areas. However, due to their distinctive signature and predictable rearming procedures, artillery formations often fell prey to superior intelligence and surveillance provided by the West.

Realizing they were not achieving their goals in the north, the Russian command decided to regroup its forces in the East of Ukraine to seize a land strip along the Azov and the Black Sea, an area that the Ukraine separatists that support Russia could control. The terrain in the eastern part of Ukraine is open, and the ground has dried since the winter enabling military formations to move off roads. Although most of the Ukraine army was deployed in this region, the Russian forces maintained numerical superiority.

The war between Russia and Ukraine tested many new concepts developed in the East and West since the late 20th century. Some of the most modern unmanned systems technologies currently under development are among these. In our analysis, we highlight some of the insights we gained during the first three months of this war

Until now, the war in Ukraine does not reflect the latest technology as analysts would expect. Since 2014 the Ukrainian army has been equipped with many locally produced weapons familiar to the Russians. But in recent months, Ukraine has obtained many western anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons that have surprised the Russians and caused the invading forces many losses. This review summarizes our impressions from the first three weeks of this devastating conflict.

The following satellite images were taken yesterday (19 February 2022). These recent images show a continued build-up of forces in Crimea, despite the Russian MOD announcement of units moving out of the peninsula. The satellite images were taken by ImageSat International (ISI) and show open areas around the township of Novoozerne on the western side of the Crimea peninsula.

A conflict erupting in 2022 is likely to involve the direct intervention of Russian mechanized regiments stationed in Belarus and East Ukraine, which are superior to the Ukraine forces. The outcome would be determined by Ukraine’s ability to endure a prolonged conflict. A strong Ukraine stands with the resolve of its new friends in the West, should assist Kyiv in facing the Russian onslaught.

Israel requests Washington for urgent delivery of two KC-46A aerial tankers, to bolster its capability of operations at long ranges. While the IAF already has several aerial tankers based on the Boeing 707, they are too old and inefficient to support a full-scale operational campaign of the size and complexity the IAF requires. This episode discusses the options Israel has to support this capability

What would happen to Iraq as US forces complete their withdrawal from the country? Will Shi'ite-oriented Baghdad be able to control the country's Sunni-dominated regions? What will be the role of Iran and how this will affect the region? Our podcast provides some room for thoughts and poses questions.