Advanced Fighter Market Update

By
Tamir Eshel
-
1269

This article is part of our weekly DefenseTech Brief.

While major powers like the USA, Europe, and China push forward with 6th-generation fighter concepts, significant global interest and procurement activity remain focused on advanced 4th-, 4.5-, and 5th-generation platforms. Nations balance sophisticated capability requirements against acquisition costs, operational sustainment, and industrial participation goals. Recent developments show notable competition, particularly in Latin America and the Indo-Pacific, involving both established platforms and emerging contenders.

Indonesia – Joining the Turkish KAAN Program?

Indonesia is exploring participation in Türkiye’s fifth-generation fighter program, known as KAAN (formerly TF-X). During a visit to Ankara, Indonesian President Joko Widodo, also known as Prabowo Subianto, expressed formal interest in joining the program, reflecting Indonesia’s goals to modernize its diverse and aging air fleet and diversify its international defense partnerships beyond traditional suppliers. The KAAN, developed by Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) with technical support from BAE Systems, features advanced stealth characteristics, supercruise capability (Mach 1.8), integrated AI, and significant payload capacity. Following its maiden flight in February 2024 and a second test flight in May 2024, TAI targets initial operational deliveries to the Turkish Air Force between 2028 and 2029. Indonesia’s interest represents a significant potential export opportunity for Türkiye’s ambitious program, although financial and technical integration challenges remain.  

More Gripens for Latin America

In Latin America, Saab’s JAS 39 Gripen E/F is gaining considerable traction. The Swedish government has formally requested parliamentary approval to negotiate a government-to-government (G2G) agreement with Peru for the potential sale of up to 12 Gripen E/F aircraft, along with associated air defense systems. This responds to Peru’s requirement to procure 24 new multirole fighters to replace its aging MiG-29 and Mirage 2000P fleets. The Gripen E/F is shortlisted alongside the Lockheed Martin F-16V Block 70 and Dassault Rafale F4. Peru is reportedly seeking financing for an initial batch of 12 aircraft, matching the number in the Swedish proposal.
More decisively, Colombian President Gustavo Petro confirmed the selection of the Saab Gripen E/F as the replacement for the Colombian Air Force’s veteran IAI Kfir fighters. This decision follows a letter of intent signed with Sweden and concludes a lengthy evaluation process that previously considered the Dassault Rafale and Lockheed Martin F-16. While the exact number of aircraft and contract value are yet to be finalized, reports suggest a total requirement of 15-24 aircraft, likely acquired in batches. The agreement reportedly includes significant industrial and social offset commitments from Sweden, covering projects in solar energy, water infrastructure, and medical facilities. Saab has highlighted the potential for leveraging its existing Gripen production and technology transfer infrastructure in neighboring Brazil to support the Colombian program. A potential complication involves the Gripen E/F’s use of the US-made General Electric F414 engine, subjecting the sale to US International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR). While unconfirmed reports suggested a potential US veto, Saab has stated it possesses the necessary licenses and permits for Colombia.
Portugal is also reportedly reconsidering its planned acquisition of the F-35A, with Saab confirming that ongoing talks are underway regarding the Gripen as a potential alternative. Citing concerns over geopolitical unpredictability and the need to evaluate European options, Portugal is assessing both the modernized Gripen C/D and the newer Gripen E/F. The Gripen is positioned as a cost-effective and operationally flexible option compared to the F-35, with lower operating costs and the potential for industrial cooperation, possibly leveraging Saab’s existing partnership with Embraer in Brazil. However, the Gripen’s reliance on a US-made engine could still pose political hurdles.   

China Joins the Fighter Race

China is also actively marketing its fighter aircraft, particularly in Central Asia and the Middle East. Uzbekistan is reportedly considering a major purchase of Chinese fighters, potentially including the JF-17 Block III, J-10C, or even the 5th-generation J-35, to replace its aging Soviet-era Su-27 and MiG-29 fleet. This potential deal follows Uzbekistan’s earlier acquisition of Chinese air defense systems (HQ-9B, FM-90, KS-1C) and reflects a broader trend of seeking cost-effective, readily available alternatives to Russian or Western suppliers, often with fewer political conditions attached. While unconfirmed, reports suggest China has authorized the sale and Uzbek pilots may have trained on the JF-17 in China.
In a significant confirmed sale, Azerbaijan received its first JF-17C Block III fighters from Pakistan in September 2024. The deal, reportedly worth $1.6 billion for an unspecified number of aircraft (potentially around 30), marks a major export success for the Sino-Pakistani program and provides Azerbaijan with advanced capabilities, including AESA radar and modern munitions like the PL-15E. This acquisition allows Azerbaijan to modernize its fleet beyond its older MiG-29s and Su-25s, shifting its reliance away from Russian suppliers.

KF-21 Launches Marketing campaign

Elsewhere, South Korea’s aerospace industry, (KAI), continues to attract international interest. A high-level delegation from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) visited KAI’s facilities to inspect production lines for the KF-21 Boramae 4.5-generation fighter and the FA-50 light combat aircraft. The UAE had previously expressed interest in the KF-21 program in 2023 as part of its evaluation of next-generation fighter options. KAI officials briefed the delegation on the KF-21’s development status and future potential, including planned integration of AI capabilities. This engagement underscores ongoing export prospects for both the developing KF-21 and the successful FA-50, particularly in the Middle East market. Egypt has also been frequently cited as a potential customer for Chinese J-10C or J-35/FC-31 fighters, though reports of a finalized deal in late 2024 were officially denied by China in March 2025.
The Philippines is also actively pursuing fighter modernization amidst regional tensions. The US State Department recently approved Manila’s request to purchase 20 F-16 fighter jets, along with missiles, as part of a $5.6 billion package. The F-16 was previously shortlisted for the Philippines’ Multi-Role Fighter (MRF) project. Competing for this requirement is South Korea’s KF-21 Boramae, which has also been shortlisted. The Philippine Air Force (PAF) has expressed interest in the KF-21, and Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI) has reportedly offered 10 KF-21 Block 1 aircraft to meet the initial Medium Range Fighter (MRF) budget of approximately $1.1 billion. The KF-21 is presented as a modern, potentially cost-effective option. Although the initial Block 1 variant focuses primarily on air-to-air capabilities, enhanced air-to-ground functions are planned for Block 2, around 2028.

Table 1: Recent Fighter Jet Negotiations/Selections (as of April 2025)

Country Aircraft Considered/Selected Status Potential Quantity Notes
Indonesia KAAN (Türkiye) Expressed Interest / Partnership Talks Unspecified Seeking 5th-gen capability, diversifying partners
Peru Gripen E/F (Sweden), F-16V (US), Rafale F4 (France) Shortlisted / Swedish G2G Proposed Up to 12 (initial), 24 (total) Replacing MiG-29/Mirage 2000; Swedish proposal includes Air Defense systems
Colombia Gripen E/F (Sweden) Selected (LoI Signed) Unspecified (Est. 15-24 total) Replacing Kfirs; potential US engine veto concern (denied by Saab); offsets included
Portugal Gripen C/D/E (Sweden), F-35A (US), Rafale (France), Typhoon (Europe) Reconsidering F-35 / Gripen Talks Ongoing Unspecified Replacing F-16s; exploring European options due to US policy concerns
Philippines F-16 (US), KF-21 (South Korea) F-16 Sale Approved / KF-21 Shortlisted & Offered 20 (F-16), ~10 (KF-21 initial offer) MRF Project ongoing; F-16 approved via $5.6B package; KAI offered 10 KF-21 Block 1 for ~$1.1B budget
Uzbekistan JF-17 Blk III (China/Pak), J-10C (China), J-35 (China) Reportedly Considering / Sale Authorized (Unconfirmed) Unspecified Replacing Su-27/MiG-29; seeking cost-effective options; pilot training reported
Azerbaijan JF-17C Blk III (China/Pak) Acquired / Deliveries Started (Sep 2024) Unspecified (Est. ~30) Replacing MiG-29/Su-25; $1.6B deal reported; advanced capabilities
UAE KF-21 (South Korea), FA-50 (South Korea) Interest / Site Visit / LoI Signed (Cooperation) Unspecified Exploring next-gen options; KAI promoting KF-21 potential; LoI for comprehensive cooperation signed
Egypt J-10C (China),
J-35/FC-31 (China)		 Reportedly Considered / Sale Denied (Mar 2025) Unspecified Seeking diversification; reports of deal denied by China

Summary

The diverse activities in the fighter market illustrate distinct procurement strategies. While some nations pursue cutting-edge 5th-generation capabilities, potentially through partnerships on developmental programs like KAAN, a significant market exists for advanced 4.5-generation aircraft, such as the Gripen, F-16V, and Rafale. In this segment, factors such as acquisition and operating costs, sustainment, industrial offsets, and technology transfer often weigh heavily in decision-making, areas where the Gripen appears competitive. The potential influence of US ITAR regulations on the Colombian Gripen sale, due to its US-sourced engine, highlights how component dependencies can create geopolitical leverage points, potentially impacting procurement outcomes irrespective of the technical or financial merits of competing offers. Furthermore, the interest shown in Türkiye’s KAAN and South Korea’s KF-21 signals a growing willingness by nations to consider advanced platforms from emerging aerospace powers, potentially challenging the long-held dominance of established manufacturers. China’s success with the JF-17 in Azerbaijan and potential inroads in Uzbekistan demonstrate its increasing competitiveness, offering modern capabilities often at lower costs and with fewer political restrictions, particularly appealing to nations seeking alternatives to traditional suppliers.

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