Turkey’s extensive military modernization has established the country as a key emerging player in Middle Eastern geopolitics, as evident at the 2025 IDEF defense exhibition in Istanbul. Held from July 22 to 27, the event showcased Turkey’s rapidly growing military-industrial capabilities and strategic goals, which extend from the Caucasus to the Red Sea.
Defense Export Success Drives Strategic Autonomy
Turkey now ranks 11th globally in defense exports, generating $7.1 billion in sales during 2024, marking a 29% increase from the previous year. The country’s defense sector employs 95,000 workers across 3,500 companies, with about 80% of Turkish military requirements now met domestically. This shift aligns with President Erdoğan’s strategic goal of achieving full defense autonomy by 2030.
The Turkish government has set a clear goal: to be among the world’s top 30 defense exporters by the end of the decade. Five Turkish companies are now listed in Defense News Top 100, including Aselsan at 42nd and Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) at 50th. Government investments and self-sufficiency initiatives have enabled Turkey to produce approximately 80% of its defense needs domestically.
Military Platforms Driving Regional Influence
The centerpiece of Turkey’s military modernization remains the Turkish Aerospace Industries’ (TAI) KAAN fifth-generation fighter jet, which is set to replace some of its F-16 fleet in the future. As an early partner in the program, Indonesia has already committed to purchasing 48 aircraft, and Egypt is considering cooperation to join the program. The ALTAY main battle tank, after years of development challenges, has finally entered serial production with BMC. Turkey’s unmanned aerial systems (UAS) capabilities, led by Baykar’s TB2 and AKINCI platforms, have demonstrated combat effectiveness across multiple theaters, including Ukraine, Syria, Libya, and Nagorno-Karabakh. Baykar’s international expansion has recently been boosted by the acquisition of Italian aviation company Piaggio and the LBA Joint Venture with Leonardo, dedicated to UAS development. This partnership leverages Baykar’s industry-leading unmanned platforms with Leonardo’s advanced electronics and radar systems. The planned 50-50 joint venture envisions drone assembly in Turkey, as well as at Leonardo facilities in Italy, which would facilitate certification for selling in a European market worth $100 billion over the next decade.
Regional Tensions Shape Defense Priorities
The recent conflict between Israel and Iran prompted President Erdoğan to focus on developing stronger deterrent capabilities. Turkey responded by unveiling its “STEEL DOME” multi-layered air defense system and the TAYFUN BLOCK-4 hypersonic ballistic missile. These advances show Turkey’s commitment to achieving military parity or advantage over regional powers.
The Steel Dome system, which relies solely on domestically produced assets, demonstrates Turkey’s commitment to independent airspace security, developed specifically in response to regional tensions. President Erdoğan has stressed the importance of improving deterrence capabilities against perceived regional threats.
Turkey’s naval power has grown significantly, with shipyards producing advanced frigates, corvettes, and helicopter carriers. This naval strength supports strategic interests in contested Eastern Mediterranean waters, where disputes with Greece, Cyprus, and Egypt involve maritime borders and energy resources.
The export of naval platforms has become a key part of Turkey’s diplomatic efforts, particularly in Southeast Asia, through major agreements with Indonesia and Malaysia. Turkey is also increasing its influence in Africa, exemplified by its donation of COBRA armored vehicles to Zambia as part of a broader strategic relationship-building effort on the continent.
A notable development at IDEF 2025 was the improvement in the relationship with Syria. A large delegation from the Syrian Ministry of Defense attended the exhibition. High-level discussions led to Syrian requests for Turkish assistance in maintaining territorial integrity and rebuilding their military. This growing alliance positions Turkey as a key power broker in post-conflict Syria, potentially reducing Iranian influence and creating new strategic realities on Israel’s northern border.
Ukraine Conflict Provides Technology Testing Ground
The war in Ukraine has served as both a showcase and a laboratory for Turkish defense industry capabilities. The combat-proven effectiveness of platforms like the Bayraktar TB2 has cemented its global reputation. Turkey has also adapted several models of Ukraine’s Unmanned Surface Attack boats, which were successfully used against the Russian navy in the Black Sea. Turkish defense firms are analyzing lessons from conflicts, driving significant investment in autonomous systems, including unmanned ground vehicles, “Loyal Wingman” drone concepts under Project OKU, and various electronic warfare systems and techniques that have evolved from lessons learned from the conflict.
Recognizing the vulnerabilities of manned platforms, Turkey emphasizes the development of autonomous systems within a fully integrated ecosystem of platforms, propulsion, weapons, and avionics optimized for unmanned and autonomous operations. The conflict highlighted the need for UAS survivability, leading companies like ASELSAN to develop advanced electronic warfare pods. This demonstrates Turkey’s commitment to updating technology in line with modern battlefield realities.
Strategic Implications
Turkey’s extensive military buildup, including the development of fifth-generation fighters and hypersonic missiles, along with the cultivation of strategic alliances in Syria, northern and eastern Africa, and the Arabian Gulf, reflects a calculated strategy. At the same time, Turkey expands its alliances and security relationships with countries regionally and globally, through naval port calls, donations of military equipment, security and military training, aid, and the establishment of military bases and other measures.
Government involvement in strategic military export deals is increasing, especially in key markets such as Europe, the Caucasus, the Arabian Gulf, and East Asia. The country is shifting from a regional NATO partner to a self-reliant, top-tier military power capable of influencing multi-continental events. Through developing its domestic defense industry, forming strategic partnerships, and modernizing its military, Turkey is positioning itself as a major regional power with influence extending far beyond its traditional areas.
