Israel Becomes a Spy-Sat Superpower

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Jun 6, 2022

The Israeli Ministery of Defense (IMOD) OFEK program (Horizon in Hebrew, often referred to as OFEQ) will be awarded the prestigious ‘Israel’s Defense Prize for 2022′ for the group’s achievements that jointly developed, produced, and deployed Israel’s most advanced observation satellite – OFEK-16. The award will be given in a ceremony to be held on 14 June at the residence of the President of Israel, Mr. Itzhak Herzog. The program is led by the Space directorate at the Directorate of Defense Research & Development (DDR&D) of the Israeli Defense Ministry (IMOD), with IAI as the prime contractor and Elbit Systems as the payload provider.

Israel’s most advanced electro-optical observation satellite, OFEK-16, was launched into space on 6 July 2020, equipped with a new, high-performance space camera developed and manufactured by Elbit Systems. In August 2020, the IMOD released the first high-resolution images from the satellite, showing the Tadmor world heritage site in Syria. On this occasion, IMOD also unveiled the national infrastructure for the production of space cameras, a joint project of the IMOD and Elbit Systems. The national infrastructure includes laboratories for the production of advanced space-qualified optical instruments and a vacuum chamber that simulates the conditions in space and is used to test the satellite camera before it is launched for its mission in space.

The OFEK-16 satellite comprises Elbit Systems’ JUPITER camera, an earth observation camera integrated with the IAI’s OPTSAT-3000 satellite. The camera provides advanced military surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities with very detailed high-value target investigation, such as spotting small and discrete vehicles, objects, and structures, and Battle Damage Assessment (BDA)with high definition. These capabilities enable users to better gain situational awareness and assessment of enemy intentions warnings (I&W) at higher accuracy. The camera provides panchromatic (PAN) imaging capabilities with a very high resolution, with an option to support multispectral (MS) imaging, sharing the same optical assembly. The JUPITER camera is capable of simultaneous operation in PAN, MS, and PAN-sharpened images.

OFEK-16 is the third generation of OFEK satellites, the first operational satellite in the series was OFEK-3, launched in 1995. OFEK-5, based on the OPSAT-2000 platform became operational in 2002, followed by OFEK-7 launched in 2007. OFEK-9, the first of the current OPSAT-3000 series, was launched in 2010; it was followed by OFEK-11 launched in 2016. To maintain complete independence in the capability to produce, launch and operate these satellites, Israel developed an impressive infrastructure of space-qualified manufacturing of satellite busses, payloads, propulsion, and communications enabling the country uninterrupted access to space surveillance. All OFEK satellites are designed for a medium weight class (350~400 kg) suitable for a lift to their Low Earth Orbit (LEO) by IAI’s SHAVIT-2 satellite launchers. That’s what made the Jupiter camera used on the OPSAT-3000 outstanding in performance/weight ratio.

The satellite operates at an orbit of 600 km high; according to published technical data, the camera covers the spectral range between 0.45 to 0.9 µm (visible/NIR). It has an aperture of 0.7 meters; the camera covers a swath of 15 km with a 30 Megapixel image and 50 cm resolution.

The Space Administration in the Israel Ministry of Defense has led the development and production of the satellite and its launcher. IAI is the prime contractor, having assigned the program to its Systems, Missiles, and Space Group, together with the MLM division, which is responsible for developing the launcher. The launch engines were developed by Rafael Advanced Systems and Tomer, a government-owned defense company. Elbit Systems developed the satellite’s JUPITER electro-optical payload. Additional companies have participated in this program, including Rokar and Cielo. Various IDF branches, primarily the Intelligence Corps and Air Force, have also been deeply involved in satellite development.

The first image released by Israel’s MOD was this view of the world heritage site at Palmyra, indicating the quality and resolution the new satellite is capable of delivering. Image: IMOD

OPSAT-3000 Operators

IAI offers the OPSAT-3000 satellites with a comprehensive ground control segment enabling customers full sovereignty of their satellites. This type of operation has been adopted by Israel and Italy. The satellite is also offered in various service-based schemes, through the Imagesat International company.

IDF Unit 9900

The satellite operator is IDF UNIT 9900, responsible for the Visual Collection and Interpretation Agency in Military Intelligence’s Unit 9900. The unit’s satellites, which have gathered mountains of Geographic Intelligence (GEOINT) over the years, are now able to automatically detect changes in terrain in real-time indicating events of military interest.

Telespazio

Apart from its operation with the IDF, the OPSAT 3000 Italy also operates the satellite operated by Telespazio, a joint venture between Leonardo (67%) and Thales (33%). Arianespace launched the Italian satellite on 1 August 2017 from the European space center in Kourou, French Guiana, with a VEGA carrier, together with Venμs – an Israeli satellite built by IAI and Elbit systems for the French Space Agency. The Italians operate the satellite as a gap-filler following the much heavier OpSIS satellite program, which was canceled in 2014.

Imagesat International

Another operator of the OPSAT300 platform is Imagesat International, operating the EROS NG constellation that, by 2026, will comprise six Ultra High performance, military-grade earth observation satellites. The first step in this plan is the reuse of two operational satellites – designated by Imagesat as EROS C1 and C1. These satellites are believed to be two Israeli-operated satellites, providing imaging over areas of interest for the primary Israeli operator. By the second half of 2022, Imagesat expects to deploy its satellite, the first of two EROS C3 satellites. The second is scheduled to enter service in 2026.

EROS-C3 is also based on the OPSAT-3000 platform, but it will deploy with multispectral sensing capability. This satellite will maintain 38 cm resolution in the PAN and add the MS capability with 76 cm resolution, covering a swath of ~12.5 km. All EROS-C satellites are believed to be of the OPSAT 3000 class. By 2026 Imagesat expects to add another EROS-C satellite to its constellation. EROS-C3 will be launched from the USA on a Falcon-9 launcher.

This is Part I of the review of Israel’s reconnaissance satellite capabilities. The next part will cover the new initiatives of development mini, micro, and nano satellites and the new capabilities becoming available with the wave of ‘New Space’ providers.

Elbit Systems’ Jupiter Very High Resolution (VVHR) camera is the primary payload of the Opsat-3000 satellite. Photo: Elbit Systems

Intelligent Firepower

By

Tamir Eshel

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Jun 3, 2022

PITBULL RCWS is now equipped wit embedded Smart-AI features. Photo: General Robotics

Modern armies have got accustomed to Remote Control Weapons Stations (RCWS) for their ability to enhance the situational awareness and firepower of mounted teams operating on armored fighting vehicles with closed hatches. However, when used on light platforms, such as commando and unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs), conventional RCWS fall short, as they are too heavy, power-consuming, and lack intuitive operation, thus becoming a liability rather than an advantage. That’s where General Robotics’ Smart-AI PITBULL comes in place – a lightweight RCWS leveraging AI and a high level of autonomy to enable intuitive, remote operation on manned and unmanned platforms.

PITBULL is designed to mount 5.56, 7.62 mm, or 12.7 mm machine guns or 40 mm Automatic Grenade Launcher (AGL). The system’s autonomy enhances the system’s operation on many levels – situational awareness, targeting, and engagement of moving targets and firing on the move. Using the Smart-AI technology, PITBULL continuously and autonomously detects, tracks, and calculates the predicted position of threats and friendly forces using its Target Prediction Algorithm (TPA).

“These advanced functions complement the human operator, enabling the human to be always in control and decide when to press the trigger,” Shahar Gal, General Robotics’ CEO, explained. Processing the command in real-time, the system determines the right time to release the shot, in the condition to score a perfect shot. “This function is optional, and can be activated or disabled, as some users want to maintain full control of the weapon at all times,” Gal said.

PITBULL’s self-awareness functions optimize it for robotic systems applications, implemented on the IAI’s Jaguar Unmanned Ground Vehicle (UGV), operated by the Israel Defense Forces on the ‘smart and lethal border.’ The PITBULL RCWS can also be configured for counter-drone system (C-UAS) missions, equipped with soft and hard-kill measures.

The lightweight RCWS draws only 80 Watts of power, enabling the carrying vehicle to stay on silent watch for many hours. Photo: General Robotics

PITBULL Remote Control Unit (RCU) is designed for intuitive remote operation of the RCWS. Photo: General Robotics

Smart-AI Functions

PITBULL maintains constant, full awareness of its surrounding, regardless of the platform’s situation. PITBULL continuously tracks target, threat, and friendly forces positions. “PITBULL does much more than sensing and control. As a smart AI-driven system, PITBULL uses video motion detection (VMD) and other techniques to detect, track, and designate targets automatically. Using advanced pattern recognition and other algorithms, the system assesses target status, for example, designates an armed person or tracking a fleeting vehicle. This information can be used to prioritize the response and determine the course of action.” The AI is embedded in the RCWS hardware firmware to minimize response time.

Optimized for Robotics

The weapon controls’ ‘self-awareness’ functions optimize PITBULL’s robotic systems applications. Using the system’s panoramic sensors, PITBULL maintains an autonomous situational awareness with a built-in Anti-Collision System (ACS) and multiple dynamic Fire Inhibiting Zones (FIZ), safeguarding the platform itself and nearby friendly forces. Optional integration with Hostile Fire Sensors (HFS) and Ground Surveillance Radar (GSR) is also optimized for unmanned operation. It enables PITBULL to alert hostile fire events and trigger responding measures accordingly.

PITBULL can be used as a Counter-UAS weapon, employing soft and hard kill measures. Photo: General Robotics

Counter-UAS Capability

PITBULL can also be used as a counter-drone system (C-UAS). Leveraging its Smart-AI automation and effectors for a soft and hard kill, PITBULL C-UAS operates a radar for target detection and EO sensors for classification, recognition, and targeting. Electronic jammers are used for ‘soft-kill’ and machine guns or AGS for the hard kill. Using airburst 40 mm grenades, the system can defeat drones from hundreds of meters away with a high probability.

“We developed the PITBULL as a robust yet lightweight system offering seamless remote control by a single operator. The dual-axis electro-mechanical stabilization, automatic tracking, video motion detection, and fire control automation results in an accurate weapon laying, delivering rapid and precise firepower from manned and unmanned platforms.” Weapon control is done locally or remotely through an intuitive touch screen tablet encased in a jacket providing the intuitive operating and safety buttons for Point-and-Shoot™.

“At the bottom line, the reduced weight and size of the PITBULL derive significant benefits,” said Gal, “It means PITBULL can be mounted on smaller, lightweight platforms and handle the recoil loads with less weight and energy. As a result, the system consumes less power and delivers higher accelerations, resulting in better accuracy and agility. Drawing less than 80 Watts, PITBULL can be used on a silent watch for many hours without an engine start.

These unique attributes contributed to integrating General Robotics’ weapon stations on IAI’s Jaguar UGV, used by the Israel Defense Forces on the ‘smart and lethal border’ pilot autonomous border protection system deployed on the Northern Gaza border. The project has recently completed the first year of successful operational deployment.

Russia – Ukraine War 2022 – Air Support Turns to Unmanned Assets

By

Tamir Eshel

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May 5, 2022

Mi8AMTSh — This armored assault variant of the Mi8 AMTSh is equipped with infrared countermeasures on the wingtips and flare dispensers.

The Russians made extensive use of air support by combat aircraft and helicopters. Airstrike missions were launched from airfields in Russia at targets on the front lines in the north, center, and east. Airstrikes were directed primarily at urban targets, while helicopters mainly engaged Ukraine forces in the open areas. Airstrikes employed Su-25, Su-24, and Su-34, while Su-30 provided air cover. However, Russian air activity over Ukraine during the first weeks of the war was relatively limited due to the risk of fratricide. Since Ukraine use similar aircraft (Su-25, Su-27), the lack of coordination with the air defense and Ukraine’s remaining S-300 and Buk air defenses posed a severe risk to the Russians. The Russians were surprised by the high loss rate, exposed to anti-aircraft fire from MANPADS, SHORAD, and S-300/SA-11 air defenses.

Mi-24 combat helicopter releases flares. Extensive use of dispensable countermeasures often leaves these heavy helicopters unprotected as they run out of flares.

Russian Mi8AMTSh carrying infrared EO countermeasures and flare dispensers.

Helicopters were employed extensively, and some engaged in close support to ground units or operated independently. Most activities recorded by the media show combined formations of Mi-8/17 and Ka-52 or Mi-28. Mi-24 were operated on both sides. The Russians’ attack helicopters were seen carrying anti-tank guided missiles and free flight 80mm rockets, some of which were fired at a ballistic trajectory to increase range (alas, or much less accuracy.)

Aircraft and helicopters on both sides used flares extensively but lacked the capacity to face the dense MANPADS on long sorties over the enemy area. Some Russian helicopters were also equipped with electro-optic jammer countermeasures, but these did not prevent losses.

Ukraine soldiers are using the Thales Martlet anti-aircraft missiles supplied by the UK against Russian drones and helicopters.

These TB2 deployed by Ukraine forces on recce and strike missions were lost and found by the Russian forces.

Another TB2 drone shot down over Ukraine

Unmanned Air Support

Unmanned aviation is having a great impact on both sides of this conflict. The heavy losses of unmanned assets on both sides reflect the extensive use of drones. Ukraine is operating tactical drones such as the TB2, which is being used as a reconnaissance and attack platform.

A Polish WB Group Warmate loitering weapon used by the Ukrainian forces

They also use various loitering munitions, including some Warmates delivered by Poland, and the smaller Switchblade delivered by the USA. The most recent shipments also include the mysterious ‘Pheonix Ghost’ loitering missile believed to be a range and loiter extended version of the Switchblade.

This Russian Zala 421-16E miniature recce drone has crashed over Ukraine.

The Russian Army also uses drones, primarily the small-tactical Orlan-10 and larger Orlan-30, the Forpost, that mostly perform reconnaissance missions, although it was modified to use laser beam riding anti-tank missiles. The brand new Orion drone has also seen combat in Ukraine, at least, based on debris found after such a drone crashed in Ukraine territory. Russian special forces also use loitering weapons – primarily the Zala-KYB.

Zala KYB loitering weapon found in Ukraine

Other chapters in this report:

The Russian – Ukraine War 2022 – Opening Moves

By

Tamir Eshel

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May 5, 2022

Planned as a swift strategic move aimed at Ukraine’s center of power, the Russian strategic plan relied on a special operation to ‘decapitate’ the leadership in Kyiv. This move was coordinated with airstrikes against Ukraine’s air defenses, while ground movements were considered supporting maneuvers that were not thoroughly planned, nor were they communicated with fielded units. In February, most Russian units encircling Ukraine moved to march orders, but the troops were unaware of the invasion plans and did not prepare for a long battle.

When the orders were received on the 24th of February and units began rolling forward across the border, the operational forces lacked adequate planning and intelligence and did not prepare ammunition and supplies for the battle. They were unaware of the terrain and mobility constraints expected downrange and did not prepare the equipment to deal with those obstacles. Neither they had the foresight of an alternative’ plan B’ in case that ‘decapitation’ move failed.

Expecting the Russian move, the Ukrainians deployed their military in small teams, heavily loaded with anti-tank weapons. These teams were sparsely deployed in woodlands and hamlets where they could surprise the Russian armored forces and destroy the leading armor elements with anti-tank weapons. These included locally produced laser beam riding missiles such as the Corsar, Skiff (also known as the Stunga P), and Barrier, all using direct attack. Additionally, newly delivered from the US and the UK, top attack anti-tank weapons such as the NLAW and Javelin were used.

Russian BM27 Uragan rocket launcher destroyed on a road north of Kyiv/

The Ukrainians fought their war on the roads. Destroying the Russian lead element would stop the remaining convoy on the road. Heavy vehicles that tried to move off-road quickly bogged down in the soggy ground and were abandoned by their crews, and many were captured intact by the Ukrainians. These tank hunter teams were assisted by drones that could spot the moving Russian formations and send anti-tank teams to destroy them even when they were hidden in the woods. Operating in small groups that relied on aerial surveillance to avoid close combat with the enemy, the small, ATGW-laden teams could set up deadly ambushes with minimum risk. The Ukrainians also used Unmanned aerial vehicles to spot, track and attack the Russian forces.

Mi-8 helicopters carrying airborne troops on their assault of Gostomel airport near Kyiv.

While the Russian side lacked an adequate view of the situation in Ukraine, Ukraine seemed to have maintained a good idea of the Russian side based on intelligence they obtained by themselves and extensive support provided by the West. One of Russia’s main thrusts was an airborne assault on the Gostomel airport near Kyiv, aimed to establish an airhead at the base where Russia could rapidly build up a solid force to seize the capital. This move abruptly ended as the lead elements of the airborne power (VDV) that were flown in to take the airbase were defeated by a strong Ukraine force that rushed to defend the airport. Gostomel eventually fell into Russian hands and was occupied by Russian troops for more than a month, but due to the damages caused during the attack, it could not support the airhead it was designed to provide.

How could the Ukrainian reserve forces defeat the Russian attack on the crack VDV? According to some sources, the CIA provided indications of the Russian plans, which may have helped the Ukrainian’s swift response. Real-time intelligence was also instrumental later in the war; the Ukraine intelligence helped locate and target senior Russian officers and kill high-ranking leaders with sniper, artillery, or drone attacks.

Ukrainian forces also hunted down Russian special forces that infiltrated in disguise into the capital and other cities to help in the quick takeover move Moscow prepared. As the Ukrainian forces adopted a defense-in-depth strategy, they gradually gave-up terrain to the advancing Russians, causing extensive attrition to the invading force. Such operations relied on mobility constraints caused by the terrain. They assisted with battlefield shaping actions, including mining, demolition of bridges and roads, and obstacles laid out on the roads to channel the invading forces into kill zones. Since the Russians restricted their movements to the roads, combat engineering elements were often absent from the lead elements and could not be used to overcome the obstacles. Before they reached their objectives, these actions managed to slow down the Russians to a complete halt.

With the failure of the planned ‘decapitation,’ Russian ground forces continued moving in. Still, the whole operation collapsed into disarray, lacking planning and coordination of groups and within units, absence of artillery and air defense coverage, coordination with air support coverage, casualty evacuation, or logistics shortage. This has led to a very high casualty rate of up to 20 percent in some units, which devastated the morale and cohesiveness of the fighting units.

Preparations for the Russian – Ukraine War

By

Tamir Eshel

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May 5, 2022

forces-concentrations-1021 — This satellite image taken Nov. 1, 2021, shows the presence of a large ground force deployment near Yelnya, Smolensk region, Russia, about 260 kilometers north of the Ukrainian border. Photo: Maxar Technologies

The preparations were carried out for years on both sides, as Ukraine and Russia exchanged fires on the Eastern front of Donbas and Luhansk in 2013. Over the past eight years, Russian special forces assisted the Ukrainian separatists in these regions but did not move forward or out of areas occupied in 2014. On the other side, Ukraine increased its military force, investing in the local manufacturing of new equipment and modernization of equipment initially produced in the Soviet era.

The Ukraine military received substantial numbers of new equipment developed and produced by the local defense industries and received new equipment and training provided by Western countries, primarily the USA, UK, and other NATO members. In late 2021 the Russians began concentrating large forces in Belarus and the areas of Western Russia bordering Ukraine. These forces included 10 Russian armies gathered from the Eastern, Central, Western, and Southern military districts, all these forces arrived in Western Russia to take part in extensive military exercises with Belarus. After completing those exercises, about 120 Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) were deployed along the Ukraine borders, ready to move south and west into Ukraine if ordered. The units from the Southern District have joined two armies of Russian-backed Ukrainian separatists from the Donbas.

Russian Battalion Tactical Group

The BTG is the primary combined-arms fighting unit of the Russian Army. Since 2012 about 170 BTGs have been established by grouping available assets and training troops to fight as independent combined arms teams. The BTG is designed as an agile, maneuverable formation that possesses high levels of organic firepower, enabling it to operate for a limited scope without fire support from higher echelons. The BTG is a powerful, armored-vehicle heavy formation, mobilizing 75 tanks, artillery (howitzers and rockets), mobile air defense, and combat engineering assets. BTGs were envisaged as multi-theater operators, with the ability to shift from rapid assault to long-range attacks or support other units. The BTG formation has about 3,000 troops, but only 200 are infantrymen, a relatively small number required to defend the battalion in complex terrain and on marching orders. While the BTG’s combat element is designed to operate across the landscape, they are dependent on the extensive logistical tail of the service and support that binds those combat elements to roads. In the Ukraine north sector, those vulnerabilities were fully exploited by the defending troops during the first phase of the war.

At the time of the Russian buildup, tension increased as Moscow demanded Kyiv refrain from its bid to join NATO and the EU. While NATO did not invite Ukraine to join, fearing they would have to confront the Russian Army under the alliance’ Article 5 commitment, almost all NATO member nations rushed to help Ukraine defend itself. They sent large numbers of anti-aircraft and anti-tank weapons that could be rapidly deployed to the front lines and be used without a complex logistical footprint.

The Artillery War on the Russia – Ukraine Conflict

By

Tamir Eshel

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May 5, 2022

Malka-firing-1021 — Russian 2S7M Malka heavy self propelled howitzer firing.

As Ukraine relied on the same equipment as the Russian forces, they were overmatched by the Russian numerical superiority in artillery. After two months of activity and the systematic destruction of Ukraine’s ammunition manufacturing plants, Ukraine is running low on Eastern standard ammunition (152mm, 122mm, rockets). That is why obtaining long-range artillery from the West was the #1 priority for Ukraine. Among the artillery pieces recently supplied or promised to Ukraine were M198 and M777 towed howitzers from the USA and Australia, Archer self-propelled howitzers from Sweden, and Ceasar SP howitzers from France. Once Ukraine deploys western 155mm artillery on their front line, obtaining supplies of suitable ammunition from neighboring NATO countries would be easier and more available.

Ukraine received significant ammunition loads, including Excalibur GPS-guided rounds that can strike targets within less than 10 meters of a target from a distance of 40 km; however, this is less accurate than the Ukraine-made laser-guided rounds Ukraine is using now. Unlike the laser homing munitions, Excalibur does not require laser designation in the firing loop. Another advantage of the Archer and Ceasar is their autonomy and quick reaction. Unlike towed artillery, truck-mobile guns can enter a position and start firing within a few minutes and scoot to a hideout before the enemy locates and direct counter-battery fire against these guns.

Ukraine’s other new weapons are M270 MLRS and M142 HIMARS multiple-rocket launcher systems. When equipped with GMLRS 227mm rockets, these weapon systems can strike targets up to 70 km. Both can also employ the ATACMS tactical missile that can carry a warhead of 230 kg to a range of 300 km.

M777 towed artillery supplied to Ukraine as part of the military support provided the US is now committed to the eastern front of the war against Russia.

Other chapters in this report:

Russian – Ukraine War 2022 – Artillery, Rockets and Missiles

By

Tamir Eshel

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May 5, 2022

bm30russian-1021 — Russian firing of heavy artillery rockets BM30 Smerch. Photo: Russian MOD

The collapse of the first phase has led to a fires-heavy campaign. The Russians have used most weapon types in their arsenal, from volleys of long-range rockets, missiles, cruise missiles, and aerial bombing. Ukraine also used many of these weapons – the short- and medium-range multiple launcher rocket systems such as BM21 Grad (122mm), BM27 Organ (220mm), and BM30 Smerch (300mm). Artillery formations included the towed D-30 and self-propelled assets, including the 2S19, 2S32 152mm howitzers, and the 2S7M Malka 203mm howitzer that could strike at the longest range of 55 km.

The rockets, artillery, and missile barrages were devastating, particularly against infrastructures and urban areas. However, due to their distinctive signature and predictable rearming procedures, artillery formations often fell prey to superior intelligence and surveillance provided by the West.

This intel was coupled with real-time reconnaissance obtained by amateur drone pilots that joined to support the military to direct counter-artillery fires and military drones such as the TB2, that could also strike the firing units with small but deadly guided weapons. Both sides used similar assets, except the mighty TOS-1A thermobaric rocket launcher deployed with several BTGs participated in the operation, but there is no evidence of its performance in the battles.

A battery of Russian self-propelled guns 2S7M 203mm “Malka” was positioned in Donetsk. Photo: Russian MOD

The Russians turned to more extensive and longer-range weapons to overcome this vulnerability, including the Iskandar-M and -K, sea-launched Kaliber, air-launched cruise missiles, and the very-long range Kinzhal hypersonic weapon that made its debut in this war. Coastal-based Bastion (Onyx) and ship-based Yakhont supersonic cruise missiles were also used against targets in the coastal region. Missiles attacks were largely successful, as different missiles overcame Ukrainian air defenses using various techniques. Hypersonic speed (Kinzhal), using decoys and terminal maneuvers (Iskander), low altitude nap-of-the-ground flight (Caliber), or high supersonic speed (KH39, Onyx/Yakhont) were all used.

The Russians used everything they could fire, indiscriminately attacking targets with military significance. They struck ammunition reserves or military-industrial plants, municipal and government buildings, infrastructures such as fuel, water, transportation hubs, and residential buildings, intending to cause terror and remove the civilian population, as they have done in the past Chechnya and Syria.

Ukraine, on its side, also used ballistic missiles, primarily the SS-21 Tochka, that can attack targets at a distance of 70-120 km. These relatively old missiles scored marginal successes, and quite a few such missiles were lost before they reached their targets for unknown reasons. (The Artillery War – Continued)

Other chapters in this report:

Russia – Ukraine War 2022 – Consolidation in the Eastern Front

By

Tamir Eshel

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May 5, 2022

T90Stora-donetsk1021 — A Russian armored column led by a T-90S tank on the move in Donetsk. Note the Shtora soft-kill countermeasures, used as a standard issue on some of the tanks of this type.

Realizing they were not achieving their goals in the north, the Russian command decided to regroup its forces in the East of Ukraine to seize a land strip along the Azov and the Black Sea, an area that the Ukraine separatists that support Russia could control. The terrain in the eastern part of Ukraine is open, and the ground has dried since the winter enabling military formations to move off roads. Although most of the Ukraine army was deployed in this region, the Russian forces maintained numerical superiority.

The area is far from the Western and Southern border with Ukraine’s European neighbors, forcing the shipment of military support along long roads where they are exposed to Russian air and missile attacks. The Russian forces that moved from the north were depleted in equipment, and troops suffered low morale. These units can slowly recover and regroup into combat formations to be brought back to fighting status.

As part of this process, the Russian forces use extensive artillery fires and unmanned aerial vehicles to soften Ukrainian lines and seek the vulnerable spots where they can advance the line with minimal losses. This slow process is part of the consolidation of the Russian forces, which eventually will bring officers and troops to refresh the BTG combat techniques, and procedures and becomes more effective.

In this conflict, Russian faces a silent coalition – Ukraine in the front and the entire Western world behind it. This can escalate to a frontal confrontation between Russia and the West. Stopping this flow of weapons is a primary goal for the Russian attacks on railroad stations, bridges, and infrastructures, and attacks on airfields are also aimed at stopping the deliveries, but weapons continue to flow in and it seems the Russians have difficulties in interdicting those shipments once they leave the point of entries.

Electronic Warfare (EW) has also been employed on this front since 2014. The Ukraine army’s command, control, and communications systems were Russian-made, making Ukraine’s C4 transparent to Russian intelligence and attack. Since 2014 Ukraine has invested much effort in developing and deploying indigenous communications and C4 technologies, while the Russians did not adapt their electronic intelligence accordingly. This effort has made Ukraine’s C4 and air defenses less vulnerable to Russian exploitations. In contrast, Russian C4 remains exposed to Ukraine’s SIGINT and EW, mainly where Russians use unsecured communications and cellphones to handle crises. Compromising communications and operational security has led to a relatively high rate of casualties among senior commanders – in the ranks of colonels and generals.

The open terrain denies Ukraine the advantage of stealth, forcing them to dig into the ground, where they are equally vulnerable to Russian drones. Over the open terrain, helicopters seem to be able to fly lower and evade MANPADS more effectively, as, in such terrain, MANPADS and ATGW teams have fewer places they can hide. The Russians have gathered more experience with counter-drone techniques, scoring more successes downing Ukraine’s TB2s.

Both sides use commercial drones for reconnaissance, locating targets and directing artillery fires, movements of tactical forces and even snipers.

Both sides rely heavily on tactical and commercial drones to find, locate, and track enemy positions and guide artillery fires. Where laser designation is available, laser-guided artillery rounds are used, by both sides, with impressive precision and efficiency. As they did in the north, the Russians concentrated large artillery formations to bombard and soften the targets they planned to attack, whether in the open or in urban areas like Mariupol.

Other chapters in this report:

Russia – Ukraine Land War 2022 – an Initial Analysis

By

Tamir Eshel

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May 5, 2022

The Russian invasion of Ukraine (called by the Russian the ‘Special Military Operation’) represents the first large scale, high-intensity warfare since the ‘First Gulf War’ of 1991, when a large nation-state army confronted a coalition of armies on a large scale, on land, at sea, and in the air.

Most of the conflicts fought since 1991, excluding ‘Operation Iraqi Freedom’ of 2003 and the three-week war between Azerbaijan and Armenia in the Nagorno Karabakh region, were low-intensity conflicts (LIC).

These mainly were defined as low-intensity conflicts or ‘hybrid wars.’ The war between Russia and Ukraine tested many new concepts developed in the East and West since the late 20th century. Some of the most modern unmanned systems technologies currently under development are among these.

We assess this land aspect of this war in several clearly defined phases and focus areas:

Looking Forward

Despite the extensive disinformation on both sides, victory isn’t in sight for either side. The War in Ukraine seems to continue to simmer for a long time in the East since, as big as it is, Russia can’t muster the force necessary to win the war, and neither is Putin willing to give up what he gained so far. While Russia suffered extensive casualties and losses in equipment, Ukraine seems to have replenished and even increased its weapons stocks absorbing large shipments of arms from the West. Moreover, despite the Russian attacks and systematic destruction of Ukraine’s defense industries, Ukraine has increased the number of tanks, armored vehicles, and air defenses it operates by repairing and fielding combat vehicles abandoned by the Russian troops.

In this conflict, Russian faces a silent coalition – Ukraine in the front and the entire Western world behind it. This can escalate to a frontal confrontation between Russia and the West. Stopping this flow of weapons is a primary goal for the Russian attacks on railroad stations, bridges, and infrastructures, and attacks on airfields (one of the most recent in Odesa) are also aimed at stopping the deliveries, but weapons continue to flow in and it seems the Russians have difficulties in interdicting those shipments once they leave the point of entries.

Suppose this local war spills over the Ukraine borders to the Baltics, Transnistria, or the Black Sea. If Russia compromises Western interests, it can escalate to the brink of nuclear war or absorb more Western intervention. Unfortunately, we’ll have plenty to add to this and future report in the coming months.

Switzerland Takes Delivery of the First Hermes 900HFE

By

Tamir Eshel

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Apr 29, 2022

ADS11assembled1021 — The first Hermes-900HFE assembled at Emmen airfield, Switzerland. Photo: ArmaSwiss

Switzerland’s defense ministry (ArmaSwiss) has announced that the first two Elbit Systems Hermes 900HFE drones were delivered to Emmen airfield last week. Two ground stations, communications, logistics, and maintenance equipment were also provided with the drones. The Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (D-11 and D-14) have already been assembled, and they will undergo a functional check before the first flight tests in mid-year. The first group of pilots completed training in Israel in March 2022 and will participate in the flight testing. These drones are part of the six ordered by Switzerland in 2016 under the ADS-15 program, at the cost of CHF250 million (around $256 million at the time).

After completing flight testing and approval activities by the military aviation authority (MAA), they will be handed over to the air force in the second half of the year. Four more UAVs will be delivered by the end of 2023.

The delivery of the drones was delayed after one of the drones crashed in August 2020 during test flights and certification in Israel. The investigation of that crash uncovered a structural problem that caused the tail unit to detach from the fuselage when the drone was subjected to an extreme high-speed maneuver, flying close to its ‘symmetric-flutter boundary.’ The condition caused severe structural oscillations that have led to ‘a very short period and aggressive process’ that caused the tail to detach and crash. Elbit Systems have since solved the problem without any large-scale design changes.

The first Hermes-900HFE (Starliner) Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (D-11) assembled in Emmen airbase and is prepared undergo functional check before the first flight tests and flight testing in mid-year. Photo: ArmaSwiss

The Swiss certification of the Hermes-900HFE will be based on the comprehensive airworthiness approval process conducted by Israel’s Aviation Authority (IAA) in the past three years, which has led to the first certification of a large drone to fly in civilian airspace. IAA has reciprocal agreements with the European Civil Aviation Authority enabling the European authorities to base part of their evaluation process on the Israeli approval.

This civilian authorization represents an essential milestone in introducing drone activity in Europe. They are required to carry out military missions, including reconnaissance, surveillance, artillery fire coordination, border security missions, or search and rescue over mountain ranges, land, and sea. While some of these tasks are done by small drones or helicopters, the large drones are much more efficient and versatile in carrying large payloads on extended ranges and long endurance. But the drones designed for military missions do not meet airworthiness standards and therefore cannot operate safely in airspace crowded by civilian aviation. To meet the civilian airworthiness and flight safety standards, the design and manufacturing should adhere to the safety standards applied to manned aircraft, with the additional aspects related to their unmanned operation. This version is now called ‘Starliner‘. To comply with airworthiness requirements, the drone is prepared to fly during the day and at night, in adverse weather and icing conditions, and is equipped with sensors and radars to sense, detect and avoid aircraft, other drones, and missiles.

The Hermes-900 was fully redesigned and its propulsion system was changed into an aviation-certified heavy fuel engine to comply with European airworthiness standards and customer requirements. Photo: ArmaSwiss

US Army Selects Sig-Sauer to Produce the Next Generation Assault Weapon Family

By

Tamir Eshel

-

Apr 24, 2022

NSGW-1021 — Sig Sauer selected to produce the XM-5 - next generation assault rifle for the US Army's combat force component. Photo: Sig Sauer

Sig Sauer has won a 10-year contract with the U.S. Army with an initial delivery order worth $20.4 million and a ceiling value of $4.7 billion. Under this contract, the company will supply a family of weapons of up to 250,000 rifles and light machine guns. The XM5 Rifle will replace the M4/M4A1 carbine within the close combat force, and the XM250 Automatic Rifle will replace the M249 Squad Automatic Weapon (SAW). Having won the handgun contract in 2017, that makes Sig Sauer the premier supplier of small arms providers to the Army’s close combat and special operations forces.

According to Col. Scott Madore, PM Soldier Lethality, PEO Soldier, the rifle was developed as an integrated system based on a projectile developed by the Army – “here is the 6.8 projectile, design me a system,” the Army asked industry.

The SIG 6.8×51 FURY Hybrid Ammunition uses a patented lightweight metallic case to handle pressures higher than conventional ammunition, resulting in dramatically increased velocity and on-target energy in lighter weapons.

The SIG-LMG lightweight belt-fed machine gun and SIG MCX-SPEAR Rifle are purpose-built to harness the energy of the SIG FURY 6.8 Common Cartridge Ammunition enabling greater range and increased lethality while reducing the soldier’s load on the battlefield.

XM250 Next Generation Light Machine Gun is part of the NGSW family. Photo: Sig Sauer

The U.S. Army’s procurement of the NGSW System marks the beginning of an era where combat weapons are coupled with a suppressor as standard issue equipment. The SIG SLX Suppressors reduce harmful gas backflow, sound signature, and flash, and SIG SLX Suppressors feature a patented quick-detach design for easy installation and removal. While the new NGSW offers much-improved performance, this benefit comes with a weight penalty. Madore said that the XM5 weighs about two pounds more than the M4 it will replace, while the XM250 weighs about four pounds less than the M249.

The XM-5 assault rifle will use a new caliber 6.8mm hybrid ammunition. Photo: Sig Sauer

Operational Testing of the new weapons is expected to occur in the third quarter of F.Y. ’23, followed by the first unit equipped with the M5/M250 by the fourth quarter of 2023. 120,000 weapons will be needed to equip the Army’s close combat force and special operations forces (107,000 M5 and 13,000 M250). The close combat component includes infantry, cavalry scouts, combat engineers, medics, and forward observers. The Marine Corps is also expected to receive quantities of the weapons for their close combat forces. Other units will continue to use the M4/M249 for the foreseeable future. As for exports, Australia and the U.K. are already interested in the new weapon, but other NATO armies have already invested in new weapons programs based on NATO-standard 5.56/7.62 mm and are not likely to follow the 6.8mm any time soon.

“This is the first time in our lifetime, the first time in 65 years, the Army will field a new weapon system of this nature, a rifle and automatic rifle, a fire control system, and a new caliber family of ammunition.” Army Brig. Gen. Larry Q. Burris, the Soldier Lethality Cross-Functional Team director, said. He noted that the next-generation combat weapons would give the Army’s close combat force the capabilities to fill the gaps identified in the small arms, ammunition, configurations study of 2017. “We are here to establish and maintain overmatch against near-peer adversaries. That is more urgent and relevant today than any time in recent history,” Burris said, adding the Army was able to do in 27 months what might otherwise have taken anywhere from eight to 10 years.

It’s expected that the first unit of soldiers involved in close-quarters combat will be equipped with the new system in the fourth quarter of 2023.

The 2017 SAAC study validated a standing requirement for increased energy at the target and identified the need to reduce shooter error through advanced fire control capabilities. The next-generation squad weapons program began in 2018 to meet that need, encounter, and defeat emerging protected and unprotected threats. The new weapon family is supported by a full suite of 6.8 mm ammunition for combat and training, an integral suppressor, and Fire Control optics.

The XM157 NGSW FC is the integral fire control for the M5 and M250 weapons. The system is produced by Vortex Optics. Photo: US Army PEO Soldier

Both weapons will feature the XM157 Fire Control optic, made under a contract won by Vortex Optics subsidiary Sheltered Wings in January. According to government documents, that contract will be worth $2.7 billion over the next ten years. The optical sight integrates several advanced technologies, including a variable magnification optic (1X8), backup etched reticle, laser rangefinder, ballistic calculator, atmospheric sensor suite, compass, Intra-Soldier Wireless, visible and infrared aiming lasers, and a digital display overlay.

The 6.8 mm ammo uses a government-supplied projectile and a hybrid cartridge using steel and brass, a design that contributes to 23 percent in weight, compared to a standard design.

The fielding of the weapon has to match the stockpiling of the new ammunition. Army Brig. Gen. William M. Boruff, the program executive officer in the Joint Program Executive Office, Armaments and Ammunition, said SIG Sauer would initially produce the new 6.8 mm ammunition. Still, by 2026 the Army plans to take over ammunition production at Lake City Army Ammunition Plant in Missouri. After that, SIG Sauer will become a second-source provider of the new ammunition. The new ammunition includes multiple types of tactical and training rounds, including general-purpose the blank, the drill dummy inert, and high-pressure cartridges that increase accuracy and are more lethal against emerging threats than the 5.56mm and 7.62mm ammunition.

Soaring G2G Sales Takes Israel’s Defense Exports to a Double Digit Record

By

Tamir Eshel

-

Apr 12, 2022

defenseexports2021 — Minister of Defense, Benny Gantz, with Head of SIBAT, Brig. Gen. (res) Yair Kulas. Photo: IMOD, by Ariel Hermoni.

Israel’s defense exports have reached double-digit figures for the first time, reaching a 55% increase within two years. “The demand for Israeli defense products has risen to US$11.5 billion in the past year; the sharp growth is manifested in the sharp increase in transactions between countries (G2G), among other things,” said the head of SIBAT, Brig. Gen. (res) Yair Kulas.

The rate of GTG export agreements signed by the Ministry of Defense more than tripled to $3.365 billion in 2021 compared to $911 million in 2020. “Looking ahead, shifting global priorities and partnerships such as the Abraham Accords create high demand for Israel’s cutting-edge technological systems.” The number of new agreements signed in 2021 increased by more than 30% compared to 2020, which was affected by COVID19. “The peak in defense agreements in 2021 is first and foremost a means of strengthening the security of the State of Israel. Said Minister of Defense Benny Gantz.

This export sales record follows two years of decline in exports after breaking the all-time $9.4 billion recorded in 2017. The Director-General of the Ministry of Defense, Lt. Gen. (res) Amir Eshel, defined security and defense export as one of the ministry’s central focuses. All cooperation is conducted under the IMOD Defense Export Controls Agency (DECA) regulations and the relevant international conventions.

G2G deals are often larger in scale than the sales signed by the individual companies themselves. Moreover, the terms negotiated at the ministerial level enable both sides to reach agreements faster and at lower costs than tender processes.

According to the IMOD defense exports report, the distribution of agreements by financial scope shows this trend, with deals over $100 million making the lion’s share of the exports (38%), between $50-100 million (18%), between $10-15 million (22%), and, up to $10 million (22%). According to the IMOD data, Israeli defense companies received orders worth over 700 million from the “Abraham Accords” countries, namely Abu Dhabi, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco. European countries represented the largest share of orders worth 4.6 billion, Asia and the Pacific – $3.84 billion, and North America: $1.35 billion. Africa and Latin America generated a total of $670 million.

The most significant tier was Missiles, rockets, and air defense systems aggregating 20 percent of the orders, with training and training services making 15 percent of the total. Other significant tiers include UAV and drone systems (9%), radar and EW (9%), manned aircraft and avionics (9%), observation and optronics (5%), weapon stations and launchers (7%), vehicles and APCs (7%), C4I and communication systems (6%), intelligence, information, and cyber systems (4%), ammunition and armament (4%), services and other (2%).

US Army Upgrades Gray Eagle to Support Multi-Domain Operations

By

Tamir Eshel

-

Apr 4, 2022

GE-ER-MDO-ALE — The Gray Eagle ER (MDO) is upgraded to operate Air Launched Effects (ALE) that can operate individually or as a swarm, monitored and managed by the GE-ER acting as a 'mothership'. Illustration: GA-ASI

General Atomics-Aeronautical Systems, Inc. (GA-ASI) began the first installation of factory upgrades to a Gray Eagle-Extended Range (GE-ER) Unmanned Aircraft System to enhance its capabilities to support Multi-Domain Operations (MDO). The MDO upgrade follows a series of demonstrations that showcased GE-ER’s persistent stand-off survivability with stand-in capabilities and up to 40 hours of endurance. Under the current program, the U.S. Army-funded program includes two aircraft. Flight tests and qualifications will start later this year.

Modernization efforts focus on increased capability and survivability in a large-scale combat operations environment. The modernization efforts ensure that the Army’s MQ-1C GE-ER (MDO) can operate and thrive in a degraded navigation environment and provide high fidelity situational awareness through a suite of long-range sensors.

According to Don Cattell, vice president for Army Programs at GA-ASI, the upgrades ensure Gray Eagle’s support of advanced teaming operations with manned and other unmanned platforms. “We are fully committed to our Army partners to make sure our proven GE-ER is equipped for its role as the designated platform for long-range sensors and Air-Launched Effects (ALEs),” Cattell said. Deploying ALE over the area under surveillance, the Gray Eagle ER (MDO) will serve as the “ALE Mothership” and enable joint forces to maintain situational awareness deep into the battlefield.

Gray Eagle ER undergoing testing at the Yuma Proving Ground. Photo: GA-ASI

GA-ASI worked with the Army to demonstrate MDO capabilities on the Gray Eagle ER at Yuma Proving Grounds, which included fully integrated, internally mounted long-range sensors, ALEs, and laptop-based and handheld control interfaces. The Modernized GE-ER (MDO) incorporates open architecture aircraft and ground systems, advanced datalinks, and an upgraded propulsion system, significantly enhancing the ability to add new capabilities, provide resilience to electronic threats, and expeditionary employment to austere locations.

The upgraded variant utilizes the open architecture design to operate through a scalable command and control (SC2) interface. The SC2 system enables soldiers to operate the GE-ER (MDO) through a laptop or handheld devices. Advancements in artificial intelligence and machine learning help streamline the system’s operation and reduce operator workload.

The SC2 system enables soldiers to operate the GE-ER (MDO) through a laptop or handheld devices. Photo: GA-ASI

Demonstrations focused on enabling a Joint Terminal Attack Controller (JTAC) to control the Electro-optical/Infrared (EO/IR) sensor on a Gray Eagle Extended Range UAS, and rapidly call for direct and indirect fire on an array of targets. The JTAC was able to see GE-ER video, aircraft location, and sensor field of regard utilizing an Android Team Awareness Kit (ATAK) and a TrellisWare TW-950 TSM Shadow Radio. Utilizing the GE-ER’s open architecture, the JTAC was able to send a digital ‘Call for Fires’ to request artillery support and a digital 9-line for Close Air Support with the push of a few buttons. The GE-ER, configured for Multi-Domain Operations, autonomously re-routed its flight path to provide the sensor data that the JTAC requested without commands from the GE-ER operator.

GA-ASI has demonstrated the feasibility of operating a Self-Protection Pod (SPP) on the MQ9, enhancing the survivability of the drone when operating in contested airspace. Photo: GA-ASI

Under another demonstration, GA-ASI demonstrated the use of self-protection pod (SPP) capabilities of the MQ-9 UAS, as part of a Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) with U.S. Special Operations Command (USSOCOM), and with the support of the Air National Guard (ANG), the U.S. Navy (USN), and industry partners. SPP leverages mature Aircraft Survivability Equipment (ASE) to provide full-spectrum awareness and countermeasures. The pod uses Raytheon’s AN/ALR-69A(V) Radar Warning Receiver (RWR) set and Leonardo DRS AN/AAQ-45 Distributed Aperture Infrared Countermeasure (DAIRCM) System that utilizes a single sensor for both 2-color IR missile warning and wide field-of-view gimbal for threat countermeasures. Both sensors support threat warnings. In addition, the pod features BAE Systems’ ALE-47 countermeasures dispenser System to release airborne flares, chaff, and the BriteCloud Expendable Active Decoy (EAD), which is a small, expendable self-contained Digital Radio Frequency Memory (DRFM)-based expendable decoy. The ECM suite is managed by the Terma AN/ALQ-213 Electronic Warfare Management System, which provides the interface, health, status, and command and control for the various systems installed in the pod. that functions as the ASE manager that coordinates between the various threat warning and dispensing systems to automatically dispense the appropriate sequencing pattern and expendables to protect the drone.

Drone Developers Invited to Meet the IMOD Urban Indoor Challenge

By

Tamir Eshel

-

Mar 24, 2022

The Directorate of Defense R&D (DDR&D) in the Ministry of Defense together with the US Department of Defense Irregular Warfare Technical Support Directorate (IWTSD) and the Merage Institute, will hold a first-of-its-kind competition – the Mobile Standoff Autonomous Indoor Capabilities Challenge in short: the “MoSAIC”. The competition will incorporate operating commercial robots and drones in an urban setting, in the city of Yeruham, simulating the challenges on the future battlefield.

20 of the most innovative startup companies in robotics and indoor drones are expected to participate in the competition that will take place over three days in Yeruham between April 4-6, 2022. Each group’s drones and robots will be required to complete an obstacle course where they will face several obstacles such as doors, rubble, curtains, etc. The event will test the abilities of companies from all over the world to complete navigation challenges, structure mapping, human and object tagging, human through-wall detection, maximizing autonomous movement in urban settings, and dealing with physical obstacles in urban areas including stair climbing and more.

The competition’s winners will receive funding for further product development, gain access to American and Israeli government officials, and will be accepted into the prestigious startup program taking place in California, offered by the Merge Institute.

The international competition is promoted by the R&D (Research and Development) Division at the DDR&D, as part of the search for state-of-the-art technologies to operate robotic and autonomous technologies within buildings that simulate a future battlefield.

The new testing site for autonomous and unmanned systems was established in Yeruham in 2021. The site provides a wide-open area and large enclosures designed to support a safe environment for testing autonomous vehicles. The center supports the development and experimentation of innovative defense and commercial drone activities. The center supports the large community of drone developers in Israel, counting more than 150 drone companies. About 60 of these companies also work with DDR&D.

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