Is Pyongyang’s Nuclear Brinkmanship a Tightrope-Walk or safety Net?

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May 30, 2009

Notwithstanding statements by the Pentagon’s top brass to the contrary, it looks like the intelligence communities of the United States, Japan, and South Korea were once again caught off guard by last week’s North Korean subterranean nuclear test. As if not enough, Pyongyang rattled its neighbors again on Friday, when it fired short-range missiles off its east coast, the sixth such, since the secretive country conducted its underground nuclear test. So not surprisingly, North Korea’s recent nuclear test and belligerent talk has put global spotlight on the Korean Peninsula.

“Our goal is complete and verifiable denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula, and we will not accept North Korea as a nuclear state,” US Defense Secretary Robert Gates told a high-level security forum in Singapore on Saturday. But Pyongyang seems not to be too impressed by Gates’ warning declaration, as spy satellites have already spotted signs that North Korea may be preparing to transport by rail an inter-continental ballistic missile (ICMB) from the Saneum Weapons Research Center near Pyongyang, to the east-coast missile test center, South Korean officials revealed on Saturday.

Pyongyang had already said Wednesday it was no longer bound by the armistice and threatened attacks on South Korea, after Seoul announced it had joined a US-led initiative to halt the trade in weapons of mass destruction. Accordingly, the joint command for South Korean and U.S. forces on the Korean Peninsula raised its alert Thursday to the second-highest level, “Watch Condition II” in response to the extraordinary week of truculence from North Korea.

Matters are certainly heating up. Rumors are spreading that North Korea may be preparing for possible missile or artillery strikes near the disputed western sea border, the Seoul-based daily Chosun Ilbo reported Thursday. The regime of Kim Jong Il, ignoring global outrage over its nuclear tests, said it could no longer guarantee the safety of United States and South Korean ships off its west coast. The North’s anger was provoked by the South’s decision to join a US-led international security initiative, which provides for the stopping of vessels to ensure that they are not carrying weapons of mass destruction, or components to make them. Pyongyang also warned it would no longer respect the 1953 de facto border DMZ at Panmunjom. Is the Korean peninsula veering back towards a state of war after six decades of instable peace?

However, in Seoul there seems to be surprising calm among businessmen, reflecting how accustomed South Koreans have become to threats from North Korea. It also highlights the perception gap that exists with the West. Many in South Korea and other countries in the region believe that the North is just as eager to avoid a full-scale military confrontation as everyone else despite its hostile rhetoric. It seems that, like in the Middle East, the clocks go different in South East Asia as well!

But in spite of Seoul’s signaling serenity, US President Barack Obama’s visible paralysis of leadership may lead to further global instability and nuclear proliferation. On the other end of Asia, Iran continues unfettered in the development of nuclear weapon grade uranium and improving their missile technology. In Obama’s own hemisphere, Hugo Chavez’ Venezuela is inviting potentially nuclear armed bombers and ships from Russia to be based there. President Obama’s promise about “bringing global stability and building strong alliances with other cardinal powers in the world seems to be running on rocks.

Nations that once thought the United States would protect them with a nuclear umbrella now see their protector evolving into the “paper tiger”. Without a determined response on the growing threats of North Korea and Iran, soon then things will only spiral further out of control. What makes the US policymakers’ strategic choice even more difficult now is that Mr Kim has abandoned any pretence his regime ever intends to shut down its nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs.

US Secretary Gates is pinning all his hopes for restraining Pyongyang on China to solve the deterring situation on the Korean Peninsula. But it is highly questionable whether Beijing will play according to the Pentagon’s expectations. Beijing’s most pressing interest appears to be ensuring an approaching North Korean leadership transition does not degenerate into internal breakdown, with potentially severe consequences for Chinese border regions. In particular, Chinese officials are concerned that rapid and unexpected changes within North Korea could trigger a flood of refugees crossing the border into China creating a potential humanitarian crisis and threatening social stability in a large Chinese region. China shares an 880-mile border with North Korea.

The same fear haunts South Korean leaders. They realize that the North Korean masses are suffering unspeakable deprivation – during the 1990s hundreds of thousands died of famine and disease – while resources are directed to the military-industrial complex and propaganda. A cloying personality cult has transformed the leader into a deity, while xenophobia and racial supremacy lead people to fear change. Should the leadership in Pyongyang collapse, anything can happen. First, millions of people will rush into China’s northeast as refugees. An estimated 250,000 North Korean refugees already move back and forth between the two countries every year. Second, hundreds of thousands starving Koreans will overwhelm South Korea, which within hours will be swamped by a human Tsunami. The sudden, forced reunification of the peninsula would saddle the modern, affluent South with incredible logistical problems – foremost among them how to feed a backward, impoverished population and integrate it into their hyper-modern society.

“This is going to be a big challenge over the course of this administration,” says Michael Green, who was in charge of Asian affairs for the National Security Council (NSC) during the Bush administration. “There’s not a list of good options”. “We’re talking about a country with over a million brainwashed soldiers, enough nuclear fissile material for six to 10 bombs, chemical and biological weapons. And if it becomes unstable or starts unraveling, it’s not a crisis you can manage part time,” says Green, who is now a professor at Georgetown University.

Past attempts to negotiate with the North Korean regime have fallen into a frustrating pattern in which landmark deals are seemingly reached, only to fall apart soon thereafter – often with no logical explanation. Kim’s regime sees the nuclear program as its best bargaining chip to ensure its long-term survival. There may be little the international community can do to deter the North, which has been punished for years by sanctions and is so poor it relies on aid to feed its 23 million people. The challenge which President Obama is facing these days is immense – will he be able to cope with it?

Korean Songun*

A look at th North Korean Missile Arsenal:

ADVANCED TAEPODONG-2:
still under development, the potential range of this missile is about 5,000 miles (8,000 kilometers), putting the U.S. west coast, Hawaii, Australia and Eastern Europe within striking distance.

TAEPODONG-2:
A three-stage missile with potential range of more than 4,100 miles (6,700 kilometers) is currently putting Alaska within striking distance. The first two stages of the missile are liquid-fueled, while the third is believed to be solid-fueled. TAEPODONG-2 is believed to be similar to Iran’s Safir space launch vehicle, as the later was developed under cooperation between the two nations. The latest Taepodong-2 rocket launch occurred in April, with the missile landing in the ocean about 2,300 miles from its launch pad.

TAEPODONG-1:
This is a two-stage liquid fueled missile with an estimated range of 1,550 miles (2,500 kilometers). This missile has demonstrated the North Korean capability to reach Japan with meaningful striking power. North Korea is believed to be developing a new mobile. Ground launched missile with a range of 1,800 miles (3,000 kilometers). Based on the Russian submarine launched SS-N-6 missile.

RODONG:
a locally developed outgrowth of the SCUD design, which also provided the basis for Iran’s Shahab 3 and Pakistan’s Ghauri II missiles, Rodong has an estimated range of 620 to 930 miles (1,000 to 1,500 kilometers) and maximum payload of 2,200 pounds (1,000 kilograms). It is capable of striking all the South Korean area and most of the Japanese mainland.Rodong is powered by a liquid fueled propulsion system in both stages.

SCUD:
A single stage, liquid-fueled missile with a range of up to 500 miles (800 kilometers), known in North Korea by the name Hwasong. The SCUD B and SCUD C have relatively short range threatening South Korea, while the SCUD D could target Japan.

* Songun – the Korean ‘Military Fist’, is the buzzword PyongYang is using to praise its military might, ‘for the deterrence of potential aggressors’.

General Dynamics, Rafael to Replace the Strykers’ SLAT Protection Cages with Reactive Armor

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May 27, 2009

General Dynamics Armament and Technical Products (GD-ATP) will provide reactive armor tile sets for the U.S. Army Stryker family of vehicles. The $150 million contract is scheduled for delivery within 10 months, by March 2010. Reactive armor system comprises tiles that fasten to the exterior of the Stryker family of vehicles, allowing it to better withstand hits from a variety of anti-armor munitions, primarily RPGs. The reactive armor kit will replace the Slat armor currently used with Strykers in theater. While providing effective defense against RPGs, Slat offers ‘statistical’ protection rather than an assured defeat of the projectile. Furthermore, the kit, designed by Rafael, can be tailored to address a wide range of threats, utilizing the ‘hybrid protection’ approach. The reactive armor solutions currently offered by Rafael are presenting enhanced capabilities over the tiles employed on previous systems, including improved effectiveness, protection against a wider range of threats and increased safety, utilizing insensitive sheet explosives activated only when triggered by shaped charges.

stryker_ausa08 — RAFAEL displayed its Aspro H hybrid reactive armor solution applied to a General Dynamics Land Systems upgraded Stryker vehicle, at the AUSA 2008 exhibition in Washington DC. Photo: Defense Update

The recent contract represents one of the largest reactive armor-upgrades planned in recent years. As such it was fiercely competed between two of the leading armor providers – GD-ATP and BAE Systems. The original developer and designer of these reactive armor systems is Rafael Armament Development Authority from Israel. The Stryker add-on armor is the second reactive armor program GD-ATP is jointly conducting with Rafael. The two companies are also cooperating on the supply of reactive armor systems for the M-2 Bradley, for which the team has won repeated orders worth hundreds of million US$. Two years ago GD-ATP also competed with its own reactive armor solution, and won another program, for the delivery of reactive armor kits for the M-1A1/A2 Abrams tanks. However, the company did not win follow-on orders after the first contract. The prime contractor for the Stryker vehicle is General Dynamics Land Systems.

Production of the armor kits will be performed at the General Dynamics’ facility in Camden, Arkansas, and will create 20 new jobs at the Camden facility in January 2010. Program management will take place in General Dynamics’ Burlington Technology Center in Vermont. As a strategic partner, RAFAEL Armament Development Authority Ltd., Ordnance Systems Division, will share the production workload in Haifa, Israel.

Above: Reactive tiles kits developed by Rafael for the General Dynamics Land Systems Stryker vehicle are providing improved protection to the hull, at weight levels comparable to the Slat kits. However, the use of reactive armor offers better protection, improved stability and maneuverability, compared to the much wider Slat. Below: For Strykers remaining with the Slat armor, GDLS is offering an expanded skirt protecting the lower hull and wheels. Photos: Defense Update

Israel, U.S. to Embark on Collaborative ‘Upper-Tier’ Missile Intercept Program to include Arrow 3 and Land-Based SM-3 Missiles

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May 24, 2009

The United States and Israel have initiated development of an upper-tier component to the Israeli Missile Defense architecture, commonly known as ‘Arrow 3’. The development is based on an architecture definition study conducted in 2006-2007, determining the need for the upper-tier component to be integrated into Israel’s Ballistic Missile Defense system. According to Arieh Herzog, Director of Israel’s Missile Defense Program, the main element of this upper tier will be an exo-atmospheric interceptor, to be jointly developed by Israel Aerospace Industries, (IAI) and Boeing.

A recent analysis by U.S. Missile Defense Agency (MDA) assessing the proposed Israeli upper-tier alternatives including Arrow 3 and the planned land-based SM-3, determined that the Arrow 3 alternative may have a reduced life cycle cost and potentially, offer better performance to meet Israel’s requirements, confirmed Lieutenant General Patrick J. O’Reilly, Director of the MDA. “The design of Arrow 3 promisses to be an extremely capable system, mor advanced than what we have ever attempted in the U.S. with our programs” Gen. O’Reilly told the U.S. House of Representatives Armed Services subcommitee for strategic forces. “This has to do with the seekers that have greater flexibility and other aspects, such as propulsion systems- it will be an extremely capable system” he said.

However, General O’Reilly expressed concern about the schedule proposed by the Israelis, “we don’t say they (Israel) can’t do it, we are very supportive of that program, but we are concerned about the schedule they proposed” said Gen. O’Reilly. MDA director said his main concern is the high risk level associated with missile developments, hence, meeting all the program’s goals on the tight schedule proposed by Israel is unlikely. O’Reilly confirmed the agency proposed funding the Israeli upper tier project at a level consistent with historically authorized and appropriated funding levels. To mitigate the Arrow 3 development schedule risk, the U.S. will develop and prepare to deploy a land-based variant of the proven Aegis SM-3 missile to be able to meet Israel’s upper tier requirements.

What Makes the Israeli Technology Unique?

What are the new technologies that make the Israeli technologies so unique to get such high appraisals from the MDA director? Defense Update has tracked a system described by Dr. Joseph Hasson, chief missile designer at IAI MLM division, presented at a missile defense conference in 2008 and repeated this week in Israel. The presentation provided a hint about the potential paradigm shift for Exo-Atmospheric KV design, employing existing technologies, with simplicity and efficiencies yet unachievable with space vehicles. The new exo-atmospheric Kill Vehicle (KV) was claimed as a patent by Dr. Hasson and Dr. Galya Goldner from IAI MLM, both missile architects at IAI MLM division, which will also develop the Arrow 3.

The IAI team proposed a kill vehicle offering exceptionally large divert capability, meaning the kill vehicle will have exceptional capability to maneuver in space, close-in on a target with high probability of kill, at realistic (very high) closing speeds. Unlike common KVs utilizing space propulsion systems (such as liquid propellant or gas generators), the proposed KV will be propelled by an ordinary rocket motor, equipped with flexible nozzle (vector-thrust). Furthermore, this unique KV will also be fitted with a gimbaled seeker, obtaining hemispheric coverage for the seeker. By measuring the seeker’s line of sight relative to the vehicle’s motion, the kill vehicle would employ ‘proportional navigation’ deflecting the kill vehicle to divert its course and align exactly at target’s fight path, hence achieving an accurate kill even at very high closing speeds and over long distances. Dr. Hasson claims the new concept is relatively simple, reliable and inexpensive and is based on mature technologies. Furthermore, its large divert capability and high agility are contributing to easing the requirements for detection and tracking systems, generally associated with remote-sensor assisted exoatmospheric kills.

Another presentation, by Dr. Idan Paiss, also from IAI MLM, discussed imaging systems in the visible, for ballistic missile interceptors. Dr. Paiss argued that a combined sensor utilizing visible and infrared elements would be suitable for ballistic missile intercept under all lighting conditions, furthermore, when provided with high density matrixes available today, such sensors could provide both target detection, discrimination and tracking as well as assisting line-of-sight measurement utilizing stars tracking.

The new component will also require the integration of longer range detection, tracking and discrimination capabiity, beyond what the Green Pine and Advanced Green Pine radars, employed with the Arrow 2 are providing. Among the advanced sensors considered for Israel’s future multi-tier system, are airborne electro-optical sensors deployed on high flying UAVs and future enhanced Green Pine radars, as well as the AN/TPY-2 radar already deployed in Israel, and operated by U.S. forces.

During the recent ‘strategic dialog’ meeting in Washington, this week Israel was assured the US will continue to support Israel’s missile defense research and development – despite Israeli concerns that economic pressure would lead to cutbacks in the American funding. The teams, headed by US Undersecretary of Defense Michele Flournoy and Defense Ministry Secretary-General Pinchas Buchris, also discussed a number of additional strategic issues. The US intention is to integrate the support for Israeli programs into the US defense budget.

Increasing Cooperation Between U.S. Israel Missile Defenses

The U.S. Missile Defense Agency is requesting Congress to approve allocation of $120 million in next year’s defense budget for the U.S.-Israeli cooperative missile defense efforts. “The United States and Israel have cooperated on missile defense for over twenty years” Lieutenant General Patrick J. O’Reilly, Director of the Missile Defense Agency said before the House Armed Services Committee Strategic Forces Subcommittee. According to General O’Reilly, U.S.-Israeli collaboration have successfully grown through the years, from early feasibility studies to fully operational fully-operational missile defense architecture that has become fully interoperable with U.S. Ballistic Missile Defense Systems elements. “New joint programs have advanced this cooperation: U.S. and Israeli industrial co-production of Arrow interceptors; the joint Short Range Ballistic Missile Defense Program’s David’s Sling Weapon System; and an initiative to provide Israel an upper-tier defense system.” Said General O’Reilly.

MDA director indicated that significant events planned for this year will demonstrate the combined U.S. -Israeli missile defense capability. Among these are the Enhanced Arrow-2 tested in April 2009, successfully acquiring, tracking, and intercepting a separating target. The test Integrated the Israel based AN/TPY-2 X-Band radar for the first time.

Further integration with U.S. BMDS elements such as the AN/TPY-2, THAAD and Aegis BMD will be performed this summer during the bi-annual ‘Juniper Cobra’ exercise. The ‘David’s Sling’ weapon system developed jointly by Israel MOD and MDA addresses shorter range threats, exceeding the capability of PAC-3 system in certain parts of the envelope.

The first booster fly-out was successfully conducted in February 2009, with additional interceptor fly-outs scheduled later this year. The first intercept test is scheduled to occur in 2010. Additionally, MDA is coordinating with the U.S. Services to identify opportunities for U.S. utilization of the David’s Sling Stunner interceptor.

Massive Construction Visible at Iran’s Missile & Space Center at Semnan

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May 20, 2009

Extensive infrastructure developments are evident in the following satellite imagery, obtained by the Israeli Eros-B satellite. The images are superimposed on an earlier image, available through Google Earth, taken around 2007. Images: Background image, GoogleEarth. Inserts: Imagesat International.

The Safir satellite launcher erected, ready to launch from the active launch pad at Semnan. Photo: Imagesat.

Another new facility at Semnan is the missile integration center, where payloads are fitted to the missile. (such as the Omid satellite launched earlier this year). Photo: Imagesat

East of the active site, the Iranians are constructing a new facility that could be supporting the Iranian solid rocket propulsion development, associated with the Sejjil and Ashura missiles or even larger missiles – according to Jane’s Intelligence analysts, the site could be associated with the next-generation Simorgh rocket. Another site, prepared few kilometers south of the new construction area seems to be abandoned. Photo: Imagesat.

Below: Another image, taken 27 November, 2009 showing the construction progress at the site, with a sizeable gantry tower constructed at the launch site, with an associated launch pad, and fully constructed flame bucket diverting the missile’s exhaust gases from the hillside. The launch site is linked through separate tubing, to a nearby, sheltered underground facility located at the upper left hillside. A new construction located close to the launcher, shown at the lower right side of the picture, could be a protected observation site to be provided with video and recording systems. (Photo: Imagesat)

Jane’s IHT analysis, based on the use of commercial satellite imagery from DigitalGlobe and GeoEye, has confirmed Defense-Update’s findings about this Iranian site. Jane’s analysts suggest the new launch pad is being constructed at Iran’s Semnan space centre to support Iran’s space program, and it is the site from where Tehran will launch its next-generation Simorgh rocket and future satellites.

The images were taken by the new WorldView-2 satellite image on 6 February 2010. Jane’s has reported spotting the site about four kilometres northeast of Iran’s existing launch facility at Semnan. Jane’s analysts also identified the tower object as a gantry tower, and the oblique view provided by the World-View 2 satellite positively confirms this assessment. Jane’s estimated its dimmensions to measure 13 metres wide, approximately 18 – 20 metres tall, with the cliff-side flame bucket nearly as high as the tower itself. Jane’s analysts assume the construction appears midway towards completion. Although the tower is not yet tall enough to facilitate vertical assembly of the 27-metre Simorgh, but analysts expect the launch pad could easily accommodate Iran’s new rocket if the gantry were to be extended by an additional 10 metres.

Photo: Digital Globe via Jane’s IHS.

In addition to this site, IHS Jane’s has observed another facility two and a half kilometers to the southwest; between the new site and the existing one. Although this facility is in early stages of construction, its heavily secured nature and restricted access indicate it is a primary element of the newly constructed complex.

The development of the Semnan facility and the Simorgh SLV both demonstrate the likelihood of collaboration with North Korea in Iran ’s missile programme. The platforms seen on the new gantry tower resemble those seen on the gantry tower at North Korea ’s new launch pad at Tongchang. A drainage pit 170 metres directly in front of the pad also mirrors one at Pyongyang ’s new west-coast launch site. Similarly, the first stage of the Simorgh strongly resembles the North Korean Unha-2, with four clustered engines and nearly the same dimensions.

Iran Tests Second Solid-Fuelled Sejjil Missile, Capable of 2,000 km

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May 20, 2009

December 16, 2009: Iran has successfully tested today an ‘optimized’ version of the solid-fuel Sejjil-2 ballistic missile. The recent test builds on the first successful launch conducted in May 2009 (below). Iran has tested several combinations of propellant compounds to achieve reliable operation. Iranian sources indicate that the current missile has been configured to carry different warheads and uses stealth attributes (‘anti-radar material coating’). The use of solid propellant dramatically reduces pre-launch preparations, enabling the missile to be fired immediately after being erected by the mobile launcher. The Iranians claim the solid-powered Sejill-2 is faster during the powered ascent as well as on reentry, and, therefore, more difficult to intercept. It is also more accurate than the former Shehab.

May 20, 2009: Iran has successfully test-fired a Sejjil-2 medium-range surface-to-surface missile, a solid-fuelled missile developed in Iran (with North Korean assistance). This missile is also known by the names Ghadr-110 and Samen. The missile is capable of striking targets at ranges beyond 2,000 km (1242 miles) carrying a 1.2 ton warhead. Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad confirmed the news on a visit to Iran’s space and missile center at Semnan, from where the missile was launched. US pentagon sources confirmed the launch was successful indicating that according to initial data, the missile profile correlates with the larger Ashura (Ghadr-110) missile, with a range of 2,000 to 3,000 km (1,200-1,900 miles).

Sejjil-2 missile unveiled during Iran’s president visit at Semnan Missile & Space Center. (IRNA images)

Iran began testing large solid-fuelled missiles in 2008. Such missiles are considered more versatile and survivable since they are stored with fuel, ready-to-launch on a moment’s notice offering quick response capability as soon as the Transporter Erector Launchers (TEL) reaches the designated launch spot. Since preparations do not require fuelling the missile, the pre-launch process is quick and difficult to detect, thus, making these missiles much less vulnerable to pre-emptive strike.

Uzi Rubin, the founder of Israel’s missile defense program, assesses Iran will gradually replace its liquid-propelled Shahab missiles with solid-fuelled Sejjil-2 to improve the survivability and agility of their strategic missile forces. Charles P. Vick, Senior Technical Analyst at Globalsecurity.org noted that the external dimensions of the new missile fit in the same logistic envelop as the Shahab-3B, 3C series lands mobile TEL.

Sejjil missiles are covering the entire area of Israel, Saudi-Arabia, Egypt, Turkey and Pakistan, from launch positions in central Iran. Rubin estimates that Iran will be able to extend its missile strike capability to 3,000 km by the end of the decade, with strike capability reaching well into central Europe. Indications of the preparations for a new launch site, much larger than the current launch pad at Shemnan are evident from satellite imagery obtained by Defense Update.

Sejjil-2 carried on a transporter-launcher.

Iran Unveils New Space Launcher

Feb. 3, 2010: Iran has successfully launched a home-produced satellite on the Kavoshgar 3 (Explorer) satellite launcher. The Kavoshgar has already been used for the launch of the first Iranian satellite, the Omid launched a year ago (Feb 2009). The payload on the satellite being launched today included live animals carried in the satellite capsule – a rat, turtles and worms.

The satellite mission included the transmission of life support signals to the ground. Iran is also developing the means to launch heavier satellites into orbit. The heavier satellite launcher dubbed Simorgh will be able to carry a payload of 100-kg into low earth orbit (an altitude of 500 km.) Iran’s space program is considered to provide a coverage for Irans ambitions to develop, test and, eventually field long range and, potentially intercontinental missiles, having the range and payload capacity to carry nuclear warheads to distances extending several thousands of kilometers. Testing of such missiles is not feasible within Iranian controlled territory.

Analysis: Unlike earlier reports hinting at a potential link between Iran and North Korea, the Iranian satellite launcher is not identical to the UNHA 2 developed by North Korea and is believed to be an upgraded version of the Iranian Safir launcher, fitted with an expanded first stage.

The missile comprises two large boosters utilizing the first stage, assessed to be in the diameter of 2,000-2,300 mm based on the Shehab-3B/No-Dong technology, attached to a second stage derived from an extended SAFIR 313, with the diameter of 1,250 mm. The total length of the mammoth missile is 27 meters. Takeoff weight is estimated at 87 tons – 75 tons of the first stage, containing up to 69 tons of liquid fuel. The first stage combines four main thrusters generating 32 tons each, plus verniers collectively generating 143 tons of thrust. The missile is capable of injecting a 100 kg payload into orbit at an altitude of 500 km. Its efficiency is relatively low, and is assumed to be less than 10% of the efficiency of standard satellite launchers.

Based on technical details, Analysts assume that a ballistic missile derivative of Simorgh, although having the potential to deliver a small payload over extended range, is not capable to perform as an intercontinental ballistic missile – as its payload capacity cannot deliver reasonably large reentry vehicle (over 700 kg) to a range of 10,000 km, potentially reaching the U.S.A.

However, Iran is believed to be working on enhanced derivative of the missile, designed to inject up to 700kg payload into orbit, 1,000 km above earth. Such a missile could eventually become a threat to the Continental U.S.A. According to current intelligence assessments, such a missile could be ready within one or two years.

Simorgh Satellite Launcher. Photo: IRNA.

Saab, Swiss UAV Partner to Offer a Combined Family of VTOL UAVs

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May 20, 2009

Saab and Swiss UAV (SUAV) have signed a strategic partnership agreement to introduce cost-efficient vertical take off and landing (VTOL) Unmanned Airborne Systems (UAS). The agreement covers collaboration regarding the design and testing of systems developed by the two companies, including the Skeldar system developed by Saab and the Neo and Koax systems developed by the Swiss company and the integration of Saab’s common ground control system to support all systems.
“We are convinced that the co-operation between Saab and SUAV combined with our joint business effort will be a success for our VTOL systems” said Pontus Kallén, Senior Vice President Saab and Managing Director Saab Aerosystems. “It is a win-win situation for both us and our customers” Kallén added. “This partnership is a strategic landmark in the development of the company.” Lars Zander, CEO of Swiss UAV agrees.

Saab will bring to the marriage the Skeldar UAS system under development in Sweden since 2006. A 200 kg Maximum Take-off weight (MTOW) platform, Skeldar is designed for use in both land and maritime operations carrying payloads and fuel for 4-5 hour missions. In 2008 SUAV has introduced the Neo S-300, at half the weight of the Skeldar (75kg) it is capable of carrying a payload weight of 20 kg plus 32 litres of fuel supporting mission duration of 150 minutes. Neo was designed for security and surveillance missions such as pipeline monitoring. The smallest UAV introduced by SUAV is the 45 kg Koax X-240, designed primarily for security and force protection missions is a more compact platform, capable of flying missions of up to 90 minutes with a payload weighing up to 8 kg. Koax made its first flight earlier this year. These vehicles are smaller then Skeldar but still operate with an advanced autonomy system, ideal for compact land operations.

The two companies have already began flight trials in Switzerland with all three systems, exploring and verifying autonomous behavior and system capabilities. According to Kallén, the combined family of vehicles will be integrated with Saab’s Ground Control Station know-how. “At the same time SUAV will support Saab activities in development and there are already some specific projects underway” Kallén added.

The Neo VTOL-UAV developed by SUAV. Photo: SUAV

Pentagon Considers Terminating the Army’s FCS Program

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May 18, 2009

According to the news agency Reuters, quoting the Pentagon chief arms buyer Ashton Carter today, the U.S. Army’s $160 billion Future Combat Systems (FCS) modernization program was ending, not just the $87 billion manned ground vehicle segment previously announced by Defense Secretary Robert D. Gates. The Army intends to split the FCS program into three orders, addressing the vehicles, software applications, and technology upgrades, to be introduced throughout the Army’s combat brigades.

The Army intends to split the FCS program into three orders, addressing the vehicles, software applications, and technology upgrades, to be introduced through all Army combat brigades. Re-evaluating the future role of armored systems succeeding the cancelled Manned Ground Vehicle (MGV) the Army plans to launch yet another, yet undefined ‘Ground Combat Vehicle’ program. The new vehicle will be further defined around the fall this year, after the Pentagon and FCS Lead Systems Integrators Boeing and SAIC conclude discussions on the FCS contract terms and MGV termination fees, particularly regarding the role and compensation for the MGV subcontractors – BAE Systems and General Dynamics. Wheeled armored vehicles are considered a contender for the future ground combat vehicle.

The near-term modernization phases formerly known as the ‘spinout’ are most likely to continue as part of the restructured programs to be collectively addressed as ‘Army Brigade Combat Team Modernization (ABCTM)’. The development of a new battle command and integrated, common system of systems (SOSCOE) will also continue, as well as some of the weapon systems destined for the FCS program. Among the FCS related systems being scheduled for near-term fielding are the Non-Line-of-Sight Launch System (NLOS-LS) and the Precision Attack Missile, various unattended ground sensors, a lightweight unmanned ground vehicle (SUGV) and the T-Hawk ‘Class I’ UAV. With the restructuring of the program, Army officials are expecting delays fielding the Spinouts, to late 2011 and beyond.

The future role of the FCS lead system integrator team, Boeing Co (NYSE:BA) and Science Applications International Corp (NYSE:SAI) is currently under evaluation. Re-evaluation of the future role of armored systems, including the recently cancelled Manned Ground Vehicle (MGV) and potential introduction of a new wheeled ground combat vehicle is due in September 2009.

Future High Altitude Drones to Remain on Station for Months, Years

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May 18, 2009

zephyr_launch — Zephyr is launched on its endurance record flight in July 2007. Photo: QinetiQ

QinetiQ, Inc has been awarded a $45 million by the US Naval Air Systems Command (NAVAIR) for the development and manufacturing of seven Zephyr High Altitude Long Endurance (HALE) unmanned aerial systems and one ground station. The ultra-light HALE aerial vehicle will provide persistent coverage capability over a remote theater, with mission durations of up to 3 months of continuous operation, propelled by two solar-powered electrical motors.

The unmanned aircraft has a wing span of 18 meters but weighs only 30 kg, utilizing a structure constructed of carbon fibers and powered by solar energy generated by amorphous silicon arrays covering the aircraft’s wings. These cells, no thicker than sheets of paper also form the wing’s airfoil. The hand-launched drone uses different energy resources during the different flight phases. By day it flies on solar power generated by part of the solar arrays. By night it is powered by rechargeable lithium-sulphur batteries that are recharged during the day using solar power.

Zephyr co-funded by the UK Ministry of Defence funding and US Department of Defense (DoD), under a joint under their Joint Capability Technology Demonstration (JCTD) Program. Zephyr capability to fly missions lasting several days was first demonstrated in July 2007, setting a world record for the world’s longest continuous flight, flying for 54 hours. More recently, the solar-powered aircraft broke its own record again. Tested in August 2008 at the US Marine Corps Yuma Proving Ground, flying continuously 82 hour and 37 minutes carrying a communications relay set weighing two kilograms. QinetiQ will produce the Zephyrs at Farnborough, in the United Kingdom. The seven aircraft are expected to be delivered within five years (May 2014).

The JCTD is sponsored by the US Central and European commands (CENTCOM and USEUCOM). Under this program the Zephyr concept is being matured, through development and operational evaluation. While ISR mission is stated as one of the requirements, It is doubtful if the small payload will provide adequate resolution from such high altitude orbits. However the system will provide an excellent asset for persistent communications relay and communications intelligence.

Global Observer HALE UAV

The solar-powered system will be succeeding another long-endurance HALE system; the hydrogen powered Global Observer, being built by AeroVironment. The more versatile Global Observer unmanned HALE cruiser is significantly larger than Zephyr, weighing about four tons and carrying 450kg of payload and fuel. Speed and internal capacity are positioning it as more rapid responsive asset, capable of carrying a larger payload of multiple sensors, better performing ISR missions from high altitude.

While Zephyr offers extremely long endurance (typically employed on continuous three months missions) and operating at altitudes of 50,000 – 65,000ft, Zephyr will fly high above the weather and above all military or commercial air traffic, thus have no impact on integration or coordination with air-traffic. Overall, each platform will cost about $1.7 million to produce but require no consumable (fuel, electricity etc.) for operation.

DARPA Vulture Program

Another solar-powered persistent UAV is under the US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency’s (DARPA) Vulture air vehicle program. Boeing and QinetiQ have teamed to offer a solar-electric Unmanned Air Vehicles (UAVs) concept for the program, with the objective to create an aerial platform that can deliver and maintain an airborne payload on station for an uninterrupted period of more than five years using heavier than air vehicles. The Boeing-QinetiQ team is employing many of the technologies developed for the Zephyr for the DARPA Vulture program. The objective of the Vulture program is to develop an aircraft capable of remaining on-station uninterrupted for over five years to perform intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance (ISR), and communication missions over an area of interest. The technology challenges include development of energy management and reliability technologies capable of allowing the aircraft to operate continuously for five years. Vulture, in effect, will be a retaskable, persistent pseudo-satellite capability, in an aircraft package. The Vulture program will conclude with a year-long flight demonstration with a fully functional payload.

The goal of the Vulture program is to carry and operate a mission payload weighing 1,000-pound, powered by electrical generation and storage system providing 5kilowatt of power and having the ability to maintain on-station position for 99 per cent of its flight. Currently the only systems capable of providing multiple years of coverage over a fixed area are geosynchronous satellites orbiting 22,233 miles above Earth. Pat O’Neil, program manager, Boeing High Altitude Long Endurance Systems said: “Such a ‘pseudo-satellite’ system, like Vulture, could provide compelling operational advantages in terms of persistent intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance and communications.”

“our Vulture program will develop an aircraft capable of remaining on-station for over five years, pushing technology and design so that the system will not require refueling or maintenance.” Said Dr. Tony Tether, Director Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency. A single Vulture aircraft could support traditional intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance functions over country-sized areas – while at the same time providing an unblinking eye over a critical target, monitoring that target night and day, providing unprecedented high-value intelligence. “Vulture aircraft will also be able to provide communications capabilities available today only from geostationary satellites – offering opportunities for new, more flexible, expandable and relocatable communication architectures at a fraction of the cost of dedicated satellite capabilities” Said Dr. Tether. The challenges here include developing solar cell, energy storage, and reliability technologies that will allow the aircraft to operate continuously, unrefueled for over 44,000 hours.

16/7/2010 Update:

In July 2010 the QinetiQ team embarked on a two-week long flight over Yuma, Arizona, aiming to break several world record for UAV endurance missions. Around 50% larger than the previous Zephyr, technical changes now mean it has a 22.5m wingspan to accommodate more batteries that are combined with a totally new integrated power management system. The entirely new aerodynamic shape and high “T” tail also contribute to reduce drag and improve performance. The payload capacity will meet a number of key surveillance and communication requirements already demonstrated by Zephyr over the past three years. Zephyr’s ultra-lightweight carbon-fibre design also means it weighs in at just over 50Kg.

Simlat Integrates SIGINT Package in UAV Trainer

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May 17, 2009

Simlat Ltd. and the U.K. based Abacus EW Consultancy Ltd. have entered a collaboration agreement to offer training solutions for UAV SIGINT operators. Under the agreement, Abacus will utilize Simlat’s STS-Pro Stand-Alone Training System as an integral part of its SIGINT training program. The company demonstrated this new capability at the EW Open Day held at Abacus EW Consultancy on May 12, 2009.

According to Yuval Peshin, President, Simlat Ltd., the need for SIGINT training solutions is more apparent now than ever, especially in the constantly evolving UAS market. “The integration of SIGINT to our simulation system will provide an optimal tool for UAS operator training and will provide Abacus customers with turnkey solutions for their EW training needs” Peshin added. The SIGINT simulation is part of the company’s fused sensors simulation package currently supporting EO, IR, NVG, SAR, ELINT and COMINT. “Other custom-made and more exotic sensors are in the pipeline” added Uri Barzily, Simlat’s Chief System Engineer.

GD, Elbit Systems’ form Joint Venture to Market UAS in the USA

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May 17, 2009

hermes_90 — The Hermes 90 Small UAV was recently unveilled by Elbit Systems. Photo: Defense Update

General Dynamics Armament and technical Products (GDATP), an operating unit of General Dynamics (NYSE GD) and Elbit Systems of America, LLC a subsidiary of Elbit Systems Ltd. (NASDAQ:ESLT) are teaming to offer unmanned systems solutions to the U.S. military and government agencies. The companies have formed a joint venture named UAS Dynamics, LLC, located in Fort Mill, South Carolina. Elbit Systems has already established with Thales UK a similar JV, to pursue UVS opportnities in Britain, a move that proved instrumental in winning the Watchkeeper program by Thales.

elbit_unmanned — Elbit Systems has introduced a number of unmanned systems recently. Seen in this photo are the remotely-controlled weapon station UT30 mounting the 30mm automatic cannon and the Hermes 90 small UAV seen ovehead. Photo: Defense Update

Among the programs targeted for the new JV is the recently announced U.S. Marine Corps’ Small Tactical Unmanned Aircraft System (STUAS)/Tier II program. UAS Dynamics will be offering a wide and mature line of UAS products, from hand-held and tactical level systems to medium altitude, long-endurance level systems that have accumulated more than 150,000 operational flight hours to date, from the combat-proven Hermes 450, the most widely used Israeli UAV, through the ultra-quiet, electrically powered Skylark II Small UAV.

The company is also offering two new platforms, the enhanced man-portable Skylark LE system recently selected to equip the Israel Army infantry battalions, and the Hermes 90, ‘quietly’ launched at the AUSA exhibition last year. These new platforms are considered among several platforms the JV could be offering to the U.S. Marines.

The new JV will be adapting those proven designs to incorporate new technologies that use U.S. engineering, technology, manufacturing and logistics resources to rapidly field and satisfy evolving U.S. requirements.

DCNS Promotes Three Submarine Classes at IMDEX

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May 13, 2009

andrasta_sub — DCNS Introduces the Andrasta littoral sub at IMDEX 2009. Photo: DCNS

DCNS, he supplier of the six new frigates recently joining the Singapore Navy has a massive presence at IMDEX. Among the company’s leading product in the region are the Scorpene medium-size submarines, the most recent sub was delivered to the Malaysian Navy earlier this year. Six submarines are currently under construction for India.

According to DCNS, the Scorpene submarines represents the state of the art in submarine design and construction and benefits from the latest technologies developed for nuclear-powered classes operated by the French Navy, particularly as regards acoustic discretion and combat system performance. Excellent endurance makes these submarines among the few medium-displacement designs suitable for extended ocean patrol duties.

DCNS is also displaying the Andrasta, a compact submarine designed to operate in coastal waters, a theatre of growing importance to all maritime nations. A direct descendant of the Scorpene, this class offers stealth, agility and power.

For Navies with requirements for ocean going submarines, DCNS is proposing the SMX-24 – a long-range, ocean-going conventional propulsion submarine (SSK) with an excellent payload capability. The modular design can be reconfigured to optimize for specific missions each navy defines. The mission profile ranges from special operations to massive land strikes, in addition to the usual missions assigned to ocean-going SSKs, which is to say, attacks against enemy naval forces and fleet protection, both of which require significant anti-surface and anti-submarine warfare capabilities.

DCNS, ST Marine to Cooperate in Supporting Singapore’s Formidable Frigates

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May 13, 2009

DCNS and Singapore Technologies Marine Ltd (ST Marine) signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) yesterday (May 13, 2009) with the objective of setting up a joint venture to provide enhanced through life support for the six Republic of Singapore Navy’s Formidable-class frigates.

The agreement framework will include engineering studies for modifications or improved performance, proper maintenance, optimization of supply chain and training. The two companies have been cooperating for the past nine years in the building of the six Formidable-class frigates for the Republic of Singapore Navy (RSN). In year 2000 Singapore contracted DCNS to build six Formidable-Class Frigates as part of its New Frigate Program, outlined by Singapore’s Ministry of Defence through the Defence and Science Technology Agency (DSTA). The first Frigate of this class, RSS Formidable was built at the DCNS shipyard in Lorient, France. The five following Frigates were built in Singapore by ST Marine under DCNS supervision.

13 Navies are Visiting Singapore for IMDEX 2009

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May 13, 2009

Above: KD PAHANG, the Royal Malaysian Navy MEKO 100 class frigate and KD LAKSAMANA TAN PUSMAH (ASSAD) Class missile patrol boat at berth in Singapore Naval base for IMDEX.

IMDEX 09 is providing a biannual hub for naval affairs, gathering leading delegations from 35 navies and coastguards from five continents represented at the show and the conference. The top brass comprises about 20 navy chiefs and director-generals of coastguards coming from Australia, Brunei, Cambodia, Denmark, Germany, Indonesia, Malaysia, Netherlands, New Zealand, the Philippines, Qatar, South Africa, Sweden, United Kingdom, the United States and Uruguay, attending the conference and international maritime exhibition here.

Berthed at the Changi Naval Base are 17 warships from 13 navies, participating in the event as guests of the RSN. Most vessels are open to all trade visitors at the show.

The following vessels are visiting Singapore this week:

Australia: HMAS GLENELG (96) Armidale Class (Patrol Craft)

Bangladesh: BNS TURAG (P 714) ‏ ISLAND (CPC)

Brazil: NDCC GARCIA D’AVILA (G 29) ‏ SIR GALAHAD

France – FNS Var

India – INS RANVIR (D 54) ‏ RAJPUT (KASHIN II) and INS JYOTI (A 58) ‏

Indian Coast Guard – ICGS SANKALP (46) ‏Advanced Offshore Patrol Vessel

Indonesia – KRI TODAK (803)

Malaysia – KD PAHANG 172 Kedah (MEKO 100 RMN)

New Zealand – HMNZS TE MANA (F 111) ‏ ANZAC (MEKO 200)

Pakistan – PNS NASAR and PNS BADR

Singapore – RSS Formidable and RSS Resolution

Sri Lanka – SLNS Sayura

UK – HMS OCEAN (L 12)‏ Helicopter Carrier and HMS BULWARK (L 15)

Thailand – HTMS SUKHOTHAI (442) RATTANAKOSIN (FSGM)

USA – USS MITSCHER (DDG 57) and USS KIDD (DDG 100) ARLEIGH BURKE class destroyers

IAI Introduces a Naval Rotary UAV at IMDEX 09

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May 12, 2009

MALAT unveiled here the Maritime Naval Rotary Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (NRUAV) being developed with under cooperation with India. In fact, the platform for the first NRUAV is the Chetak (Alouette III), widely used by the Indian Navy. The helicopter could be deployed for mission of 6 hours, up to a distance of 120 km from the launching vessel.

Employed as an ‘elevated mast’, NRUAV can extend the vessel’s coverage over a much larger area, providing early warning and detection of aircraft, and cruise missiles, surface vessels and even subsurface activity. For example, its radar could easily detect a patrol boat from 80 nautical miles, automatically detect and track surface targets and effectively handle 64 airborne targets. Being transformed into a pilotless platform, the helicopter will be equipped with multiple payloads, for multi-mission performance, enabling aerial shipborne resupply, maritime surveillance and other missions to continue regardless on weather conditions.

It has been demonstrated that automatic landing, relying on closely coordinating the helicopter’s flight controls in reference to the, ship’s landing deck rolling under high sea conditions is safer than a pilot controlled landing under such conditions. The NRUAV features automatic take-off and landing from aviation capable ships and from unprepared landing sites.

Among the sensor suites that can be carried by the NRUAV are different Maritime Surveillance Radar systes, capable of surface and counter-submarine operation, resolution sharpening, synthetic apperture radar (SAR) and Inverse SAR modes. Electro-optical payloads are also carried. Airborne intelligence also accommodate electronic – a SIGNIT/COMINT Suite that can be carried on UAVs, like the EL/K-7071 COMINT and EL/K-7071 SIGINT systems EL/L-8385 Electronic Support measures (ESM). Among the optronic payloads, stabilized Plug-In Optronic Payload (POP) Family on display includes POP300LR Observer, Mini-POP and Multi-Mission Optronic Stabilized Payload – MOSP3000. The entire sensor suit is controlled from the ship’s command information center (CIC).

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Photo: Digital Globe via Jane’s IHS.

Global Observer HALE UAV

DARPA Vulture Program

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