Tech Transfer, Local Partnership Critical for F-X2 Win

By

-

Apr 15, 2009

Brazil is currently shopping for 28 single-seaters and eight twin-seaters. The primary mission is air defense, with a secondary ground-attack role. Initial deliveries are expected in 2014 with the total program spanning over 11 years. Eventually, 115 to 120 aircraft could be bought and assembled in country. Brazil hasn’t asked for the bidder’s consideration for the follow-on production, but some of the companies have already endorsed this option.

Brazil is expected to announce its final decision by late August. Each of the proposed fighters has its own benefits and drawbacks but none are expected to present a decisive factor in the Brazilian decision. Technology transfer, benefit to Brazil’s local industry and economy and local assembly and production could become the critical decision points and considered to be the crucial factors paving the bidder’s way to success.

In this field, France and Sweden are considered stronger than Russia and the USA. Russia is willing to give a lot, including local production of complete aircraft under license; however, the SU-35 is considered a high risk venture, particularly in retrospect of the Indian experience with their SU-30MKI model. The Russians are promising the development of their fighter is progressing well and expect initial deliveries 2011 to customers in South America, Southeast Asia, Africa and the Middle East. On the positive side, Su-35 is considered the most maneuverable, powerful, most robust and flexible multi-role platform, comparable only to the American Boeing F/A-18E/F. the Russians are offering local production of their aircraft, and, as always, are always open to introduce customer furnished avionics and systems with their fighter.

Boeing is also proposing generous terms, and, according to Lt. Gen. Glenn Spears, deputy commander of U.S. Southern Command, the U.S. government has assured and approved everything in this package for technology transfer to Brazil. However, packaging these technologies for local production could become an issue with Washington. On the other hand, the U.S. could provide Brazil and particularly Embraer, with the largest business potential, particularly with a large company such as Boeing.

France is doing its best to support the Rafale, and, considering its past performance with aircraft, helicopters, submarines and surface vessels, Paris has a fair chance of winning this competition. “The [French] government is ready to agree to transfer technology on the Rafale program, as well as the Eurocopter EC 725 helicopter, if the combat jet is selected by the Brazilian Air Force” Said Jean-Marie Bockel, Secretary of State for Defence and Veterans Affairs in the French Government.

Sweden is also well positioned. While their Gripen NG is not yet in production, and has never been produced out of Sweden, “The Gripen NG offer is fully compliant and will be a complete solution for Brazil,” assured Gripen Campaign Director for Brazil, Bengt Janér. Saab also indicated that the company fully supports tech-transfer, which have become mandatory in recent programs (India). The Swedes argue that as the Gripen NG is currently positioned could become attractive for Brazil’s participation in the development and shaping of the new fighter as well as its future production. “The transfer of the Technology will also allow full involvement in future capability development supplying Brazil strategic long term national security and technology superiority. “Gripen NG will provide a long term partnership between Brazil and Sweden in a well established fighter program that continues to develop. Gripen will maintain its position at the cutting edge of technology for the next 30-40 years”, says Saab CEO Mr. Åke Svensson.

Helibras Expands for EC725 Production

By

admin

-

Apr 15, 2009

The planned production of 50 Eurocopter EC725 helicopters, soon to begin at its Brazilian subsidiary Helibras new assembly line Itajubá in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil will lead to Helibras doubling its staff strength to that of 600 persons with a reinforced engineering centre. So far Eurocopter has established a strong presence in Latin America, through three subsidiaries in Brazil, Mexico and Chile employing about 500 people. Being the only helicopter manufacturer with production facilities in Latin America, Eurocopter has about a thousand helicopters in service in the continent. The AStar/Ecureuil model is made in Brazil (known as Esquilo) and the new EC725 will be ready soon. Initial deliveries for the Navy are expected next year (2010). Subsequent deliveries are planned for the Air Force and Army. Initial export orders are also coming – the Mexican Ministry of Defense has ordered six EC725s in March 2009.

Another element of the Brazilian EC725 program is the integrated training and logistics support. At LAAD Eurocopter is introducing the first flight simulator for the EC725 helicopter, which will also become the first helicopter flight simulator ‘flying’ in Latin America. The new flight simulator, to be installed in Rio de Janeiro will be operational in two years. According to Eurocopter President Lutz Bertling, his company is investing significant effort in simulator development “Eurocopter’s strategy is to develop its support and services activity and to promote a proactive pilot training policy” stated Bertling, “Over the last few months, we have introduced numerous simulators for the EC225 in France, the EC135 in Germany and the United States, and the NH90 in Germany. The forthcoming introduction of the EC725 simulator in Brazil and in Malaysia will broaden our offer and meet the expectations of our customers in this growing area of strategic importance.

Embraer to Upgrade Brazil’s Naval Skyhawks

By

admin

-

Apr 15, 2009

Upgrades Embraer has signed a US$140 million contract to modernize a dozen Skyhawk jet fighters operated by the Brazilian Navy. These include nine AF-1 single-seat fighters and three AF-1A (two-seat) fighter-trainers. This contract is the first large scale program Embraer has won wit the Brazilian Navy. The Navy currently has an inventory of 23 AF-1 Skyhawks. It followed two successful fighter modernization programs Embraer had with the Brazilian Air Force jets – upgrades of F-5BR fighters and A-1 AMX light attack jets. The 12 naval airplanes that will be modernized will be fully restored to flight condition, to operating with the Navy’s 1st Intercept and Attack Plane Squadron. The program includes restoring the aircraft and their current systems, as well as implementing new avionics, radar, power production, and autonomous oxygen generating systems.

Brazil Launches KC-390 Medium Transport Aircraft Program

By

admin

-

Apr 14, 2009

Embraer has signed a US$1.3 billion contract with the Brazilian Air Force (FAB) for the KC-390 military transport aircraft program. In a ceremony held yesterday (April 14) at the LAAD exhibition the Brazilian Air Force (FAB) and Brazil’s aerospace manufacturer Embraer launched the KC-390 medium weight transport aircraft program. The new jet, will replace some 22 Lockheed Martin C-130E/H and KC-130 transport aircraft currently in service with FAB. Like the Hercules, the new transporter will have a cargo bay equipped with an aft ramp capable of carrying about 18 tons of cargo. It will be capable of transporting a wide variety of types of cargo, including armored vehicles. The aircraft will also be configurable for aerial refueling missions. Unlike most current turboprop powered transporters, KC-390 will be powered by two turbofan engines. The new aircraft is expected to enter service in 2015.

The company embarked on the preliminary development of a future medium weight cargo plane in 2007. Frederico Fleury Curado, Embraer President & CEO described the program as a ‘historical strategic partnership’ between the Brazilian Air Force and Embraer, and affirmed his conviction that this “cargo and tanker aircraft for the FAB … shall also become another successful export platform for both Embraer and Brazil.” He indicated that the participation of other countries in this program will be evaluated, in conjunction with the FAB.

The development of KC-390 is based on requirements established by the Air Force, following a process that has been proven to be a successful business formula for Embraer, with earlier programs including the Bandeirante EMB-110 light transport and maritime patrol aircraft, and the Tucano trainer and Super Tucano trainers and light attack aircraft. The conversion of Embraer’s ERJ-145 jet transports to special mission aircraft also originated from a similar cooperation. These aircraft are operated as aerial surveillance and remote sensor platforms, used in the Amazon Surveillance System (Sistema de Vigilância da Amazônia – SIVAM).

The event was attended by the Minister of Defense, Nelson Jobim, Chief of the Navy, Admiral Júlio Soares de Moura Neto, the Brazilian Air Force Commander, General Juniti Saito, and Embraer President & CEO Frederico Fleury Curado.

Israeli ATVs for the British Army

By

admin

-

Apr 13, 2009

springer_tomcar — The vehicle can accommodate a crew of two has a load capacity of about one ton (2,200 pounds), far exceeding similar ATVs currently operational. One of the main advantages of this vehicle is the ability to operate it with basic armor protection, maintaining adequate payload capacity. Photo: via UK MOD

Enhanced Protection Systems Ltd. (EPS) from the U.K. has been awarded a £7m contract (about $10.3 million) to fit, deliver and support 75 Springer type all-terrain light load carriers (also known as MULEs). These vehicles are based on the Israeli designed, U.S. built Tomcar all-terrain vehicle (ATV) platform. All vehicles are expected to be delivered by mid-summer and be refitted to support British troops operating in Afghanistan. According to the Ministry of Defence, the Springers will support airborne and light infantry units in landing zones, moving combat supplies from helicopter landing sites into British forward operating bases.

The vehicle can accommodate a crew of two has a load capacity of about one ton (2,200 pounds), far exceeding similar ATVs currently operational. One of the main advantages of this vehicle is the ability to operate it with basic armor protection, maintaining adequate payload capacity. The British vehicle shown above is the two-seater version.

The Tomcar was originally designed as a recreational vehicle but in past years was thoroughly modified to meet tough military requirements of the hot, high deserts of the Middle east, Asia and Africa. Every vehicle is fitted with a roll cage and cargo flatbed, and is configured for two or four seats. The Tomcar also comes with a choice of petrol or diesel engines. Israel is utilizing Tomcars modified into unmanned patrol vehicles, employed as unmanned and autonomous border patrols. The Israeli company that developed the autonomous vehicle control system is offering the system as a modification kit that could convert the Springer into an optionally driven/autonomous vehicle.

tomcar_armored — Tomcar is offering its military configured all terrain vehicle in three versions - the light armored vehicle (LAV - picture above) Light Surveillance and Reconnaissance vehicle (LRSV) and an unmanned ground vehicle. Photo: Tomcar USA.

Brazilian Defense Forces, Iveco to Unveil New APC at LAAD

By

admin

-

Apr 13, 2009

After a long delay the Brazilian Army APC replacement program is moving forward, with the formal unveiling of the ‘Armored Personnel Carrier – Medium’ (VBTP-MR) full scale mockup at the Latin-America Aerospace & Defense (LAAD) exhibition taking place in Rio de Janeiro this week. The vehicle is positioned to replace the country’s indigenous 6×6 armored vehicles, including the EE-9 Cascavel (rattlesnake) armed reconnaissance vehicle and EE-11 Urutu (serpent) APC, both developed during the 1970s by Brazil’s domestic armored vehicle manufacturer Engesa, one of the main suppliers to the Iraqi Army, that entered bankruptcy in 1993, after the elimination of their primary client – the Saddam Hussein’s army, in Operation Desert Storm 1991. Engesa finally closed shop in 2001 leaving thousands of vehicles operated by armies in Brazil, other Latin American countries and third world armies worldwide, leaving all with no spares and support.

Since the final collapse of Engesa the Brazilian Army has been seeking a solution to modernize and replace its aging and unsupported armored vehicles. Through a lengthy process that was cancelled in 2005 due to lack of funding, the Army selected the Italian company Iveco to design, develop and produce a new 6×6 18 ton, diesel powered platform, capable of amphibious operation. It is designed to carry 11 soldiers, and is equipped with a remotely operated gun turret mounting 30mm automatic cannon or 12.7mm machine gun. (The Cascavel currently mounts a manned turret with 90mm Cockeril Mk III cannon). Eying potential rapid deployments in support of peacekeeping operations, which provide a significant source of income for third world countries, the VBTP-MR is sized to meet the limited cargo bay of C-130 type aircraft. A first prototype will be built by Iveco and be ready for testing next year (2010). 16 additional vehicles are planned to be built by 2011 and followed by further procurement decisions to be announced later by the Brazilian army.

Main Armament to Comprise an Israeli Unmanned Turret

Along with the unveiling of the new VBTP-MR, Israel’s Elbit Systems announced the conclusion of an order from the Brazilian Army, to provide its UT-30 unmanned turrets for the new family of Brazilian APCs. The turret is delivered as a complete system, incorporating automatic cannon up to 30mm, a coaxial machine gun 7.62 mm, a Laser Warning System (LWS), commander panoramic sights and smoke grenade launchers. The gun and optronics are stabilized in dual axes and the sight integrates an automatic target tracker, improving firing on the move and engagement of moving targets. The signed contract covers the first phase of the program, with additional orders expected under a follow-on multi-year procurement. In total, the VBTP-MRs will replace the entire fleet of Brazil’s domestically produced wheeled AFVs currently comprising over 600 vehicles.

ut30_rws — The UT-30 remotely operated weapon station mounted on a Piranha IV armored vehicle. A similar system was selected by the Brazilian Army. Photo: General Dynamics Land Systems / Mowag

UAV Sale Marks a New Milestone in Russian-Israeli Defense Relations

By

admin

-

Apr 13, 2009

birdeye_400 — The BirdEye 400 UAV was developed by IAI and has been delivered to a number of international customers. It employs a clean 'flying wing configuration, and uses the MicroPop electro-optical payload, delivering high quality imagery from low altitude. The BirdEye 400 is powered by a quiet electric motor and uses a unique landing system, as it makes an inverted approach to protect the sensitive payload. (photo: IAI)

An unprecedented arms package agreed between Israel and Russia could open the gate for the transfer of advanced Israeli military systems and technologies to improve and upgrade Russian made military hardware. The current package worth about $50 million covers three classes of unmanned aerial systems (UAS), including training, field sustainment and technical support, to be provided by Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI). The initial deal may offer options that could double the volume of the sale up to $100 million and cover up to 100 aerial vehicles and 10 ground control systems. Initially Russia was impressed by the performance of Elbit Systems’ Hermes-450 UAS operated by Georgia, during last year’s campaign, however, it is unclear whether they opted for the IAI systems by choice, or because the transfer of Hermes 450 technology was denied by the Israelis.

The Russian Ministry of Defense delegation which visited Israel last year to discuss the deal, may have paved the way for concluding the present breakthrough. The mission was headed by the Chief of the Armament for the Russian Armed Forces, Deputy Minister of Defense, Army General Vladimir Popovkin (in picture) and Deputy Chief of Staff, Minister Alexander Gorbunov, responsible for the defense industry. This visit was viewed as an important breakthrough in the bilateral relations between the two countries, particularly relevant to Russia’s attitude toward Iran, which has become a growing customer for Russian military hardware but is also considered a potential threat to Moscow’s interests in the South. It can be assumed therefore that while the Israelis were reluctant to give the Russians access to technologies considered vital to their national security, systems of lesser concern could be discussed. While the Hermes 450 is the mainstay of Israel’s tactical UAS forces and has provided the baseline for the British Watchkeeper UAV program, the Searcher II is considered less sensitive, as it has already withdrawn from active service with the IDF and has been offered in the surplus market. The Bird-Eye 400 could also be considered as non critical technology, as it is not used by the IDF. The I-View, previously selected for Australia’s tactical UAV program (which was recently cancelled) is also looking for a new start and Russia could become important for the system’s future. IAI is marketing the I-View in several countries, in North America and Asia as well as in Israel, where another derivative of the system is competing for the future IDF brigade level UAV.

i_view_launch — The I-View UAS family is comprised of three types of UAVs, the I-View 250, I-View 150 and I-View 50. This system is optimized for operation at the tactical level (regiment, brigade and division) and requires minimum logistical footprint for operations, takeoff or landing. (Photo: Defense Update)

What are the Russians Expecting?

The Russians are buying three different systems under the $50 million deal, meaning they are receiving a full portfolio of ‘samples’ systems, ranging from mini-UAVs to tactical UAVs. All three are fully developed and according to IAI, two of the systems (BirdEye 400 and Searcher II) are already operational. The third – the I-View 150 is still under development. It is yet unclear if the Russians have options to add the Heron Medium Altitude Long Endurance (MALE) UAV system in the future. The Heron is currently used by a number of international operators, including India, Turkey, France and Canada. The Searcher II is also internationally operated by several clients including India, Singapore and Spain. Israel has already transferred military systems to former CIS republics like Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Georgia, but Russia has neither requested, nor been approved to become a customer for Israeli military hardware. The Russians interest in the Israeli unmanned systems capability evolved after their conflict with Georgia, in which the Georgians operated Elbit Systems’ Hermes UAV. Russians after-action reports clearly identified their ISR capabilities, rendered by Unmanned Aerial Systems, performing as insufficient and inferior compared to the capabilities the Georgians gained through their UAV operations.

The UAS packages includes sensitive technologies that Israel would be reluctant to disclose to the Russians, particularly mission control protocols, communications, and avionics. However, at present the Russians are interested primarily in catching up with basic requirements; technical priorities and concepts of operations (CONOPS), and transferring such know-how and skills were probably the least the Israelis could live with. Russian Deputy Defense Minister in charge of military procurement, Vladimir Popovkin confirmed the acquisition of Israeli UAVs hinting to the Russian intentions. “We will work on them (the Israeli systems) like the Chinese do” alluding to the known Chinese habit of buying ‘technology samples’ used primarily for reverse engineering. Russia’s military requirement for UAV is estimated at a minimum 100 UAVs platforms and at least ten ground control systems, providing effective battlefield reconnaissance for divisional level in support of any military conflict.

Russian UAS Technology – More Time is Needed

Anticipating these needs, the Russian Air Force and Army have already launched a number of UAV developments. Air Force Commander, Col. Gen. Alexander Zelin said last year that Russia would deploy advanced unmanned aerial vehicles with a flight range of up to 400 kilometers (250 miles) and a flight duration capability of up to 12 hours by 2011. General Staff chief Nikolai Makarov also confirmed the acquisition of Israeli UAS being considered a ‘stop gap’ solution, until home made systems will catch up with a reasonable level of this technology. The General Staff has decided that while we don’t have such drones, over the next two to three years, we will buy them from Israel” said Makarov.

According to Russian sources, the Russian built UAVs, both fixed- and rotary-wing configurations, will be supporting land, air and naval forces. While aerial platforms for these systems are within reach of Russian aerospace industries, delivering complete systems, packed with the automation, autonomy, mission planning and timely delivery of ISR products seem still years away. The two UAV systems currently operational with the Russian armed forces, which have been used in action during the summer war in Georgia and Ossetia included the piston-engine propelled PCHELA-1T and turbo-jet powered REIS-D high speed low-altitude tactical drone, both being outdated systems, developed in the 1970-1980s.

An example of Russian UAVs technology is the Tipchak system developed by the Lutch Design Bureau. According to Mr Popovkin, the drone was operational during the recent fighting with Georgia, but had demonstrated many problems, among them a distinct acoustic signature audible from long distance, which, coupled with the low ceiling, yielded high vulnerability to ground fire. The developers are currently working on a new-generation Tipchak, expected to be delivered in about three years.

The Tipchak can operate as high as 10,000 feet. The drone carries a day/night camera payload. It has an operational range of 40 km and mission endurance of about two hours. Developed to support artillery brigades with long range target acquisition, is being considered for battlefield reconnaissance as well. The Tipchak weighs 132 pounds, has a payload of 32 pounds and can stay in the air for two hours per sortie.

It is evident that the amount of the first transaction is not impressive – about $ 50 million but, according to experts, its importance is not the quantity but the very fact of Russian military customers turn to foreign suppliers and especially Israel.

Years of Cooperation Paved the Way for the Current Sale

It is not the modernization needs of the Russian military, or the export prospecst that interest the israelis, but the potential transfer of the most advanced Russian air defense system to Iran that seems to be the prime motivation behind the Israeli, so far reluctant decision to approve the UAV deal with Moscow. Israel repeatedly asked Russia to block the transfer of S-300 systems to Iran. While Moscow approved the sales package requested by Tehran, actual delivery of the system has not been cleared yet. It is highly doubtful whether the Russians will take the $50 million deal with Israel even as a free gift, instead of selling their expensive air defense missiles to the Iranians, under a multi-billion dollar arms package. It is more likely that the Israeli-Russian deal means more to both sides.

Many defense companies in Israel are involved with the upgrading of aging Russian made equipment. These include MiG-21, MiG-27 and MiG-29, Su-25 and Su-30, and a wide variety of helicopters, such as the Mi-24/35, Mi-8/17. Israeli companies are also involved in the avionics systems installed in derivatives of Russian jet trainers, namely the Alenia Aermacchi 346.

The Israelis are also heavily engaged in upgrades of Russian made armored vehicles, including T-62, T-72, T-84 and T-90 tanks, BMP armored infantry fighting vehicles, ZSu-23/4, and amphibious vehicles. So far Russia was reluctant to approve such upgrades and threatened potential customers that such unilateral actions will waive the warranty for their systems. Russia also tries to block such programs by denying critical components, such as engines and other systems, driving the upgrade’s cost to uneconomical levels.

By establishing closer links to the Russians, IAI has always managed to avoid direct confrontation with the Russians. Testimony to this approach is the tri-national deal struck with the Indian Government, where India received Israeli airborne early warning radars installed on Russian made IL-76MD transports. The Israelis are quietly marketing avionics systems for military aircraft upgrades, and even consider providing weapon systems integration on Russian produced fighters, as long as such activities are undertaken by trustworthy proxies. Another system being considered is an Israeli phased array radar technology, to be used for the improvement of a Russian fighter bid. The fact that two of the largest potential prospects for Russian military aviation, the MMRCA in India and F-X in Brazil, are open and eager to consider Israeli technology is clear to the Russians, anxious to reach parity with the most advanced systems the west can offer. IAI and Russian aerospace companies have already cooperated in the past, in the modification of the Ka-52 Alligator helicopter gunship, proposed for the Turkish helicopter gunship program, and in the upgrade of Ka-32 helicopters delivered to the South Korean Navy.

While integrating Israeli technologies in Russian systems might provide the Russians with clear benefits, particularly regarding their presently deficient technological level, the potential economical benefit for Israel is questionable, in retrospect of sensitive technological leakage to its enemies and, the risk of training the Russian engineers in advanced technologies. These are known to be masters of re-engineering, during the days of the Cold War with the west. Offering clients the possibility to upgrade Russian systems, partially with Israeli systems could even encourage some users of the Russian hardware to delay potential withdrawal from service of Russian made systems, enabling Russian defense industries to ‘catch up’ with the west, and offering better solutions in the future. As an example, Russian solutions were not even considered when India opted to replacing its Russian built SA-3 and SA-8 systems.

The Inevitable Fate of Post US Iraq – Potential Concequences of Obama’s Exit Strategy

By

David Eshel

-

Apr 11, 2009

obama_baghdad_breef — President Barack Obama receives a briefing from U.S. General Raymond T. Odierno, commanding general of the multi-national force in Iraq, Tuesday, April 7. 2009 at Camp Victory, Iraq. White House photo by Pete Souza.

During his whirlwind stopover in Baghdad, last Thursday, U.S. President Barack Obama has declared that Iraqis “must take responsibility for their country”. He predicted the next 18 months would be trying, as American troops start to leave a country still facing security threats and political problems. “They (the Iraqis) have got to make political accommodations” Mr Obama said. “They’re going to have to decide that they want to resolve their differences through constitutional means and legal means.”

Now that President Obama and his aides have announced their plan for the United States to withdraw its troops from Iraq by August 31, 2010, they must consider what the forces engaged against the coalition and the Iraqi government plan to do until that time. The problem is, that Iran and Syria, as well as al-Qaeda and other jihadist groups, can seriously affect Obama’s withdrawal ‘road map’. Moreover, will Riyadh and Tehran, Ankara and Damascus, go along with Washington’s new strategic ambitions?

In fact, any decent strategic analyst, looking into the Middle East future, must ask: “what if the other side won’t cooperate?” What about al-Qaeda and its Salafi-Wahabi support, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps, the Quds force, Hezbollah from Lebanon and the intelligence services of Tehran and Damascus, will they ignore this rare opportunity to act?

According to Obama, by that magical date of August 31, 2010, Iraq’s own forces should then be able to control their county. But as any experienced military analysts will tell, to train the fledgling Iraqi security forces to fight a brutal sectarian counter-insurgency war in a mere 18 months from now, might at best be wishful thinking by an overoptimistic and inexperienced U.S. president. Based on historical examples, not too distant to memory, such a statement is either totally shortsighted or sheer ignorance on existing facts in this unpredictable region. Once President Obama’s “orderly withdrawal” starts in earnest, there will be hell to pay, all over Iraq and very rapidly spilling over it’s borders, engulfing much of this already explosive region.

A quick reminder of recent events clearly demonstrate how quickly inter-sectarian differences emerged, when U.S. forces began to pull out of Baghdad and into suburban bases in 2005. The dangerously created vacuum was immediately filled by al-Qaeda bombers, armed Shi’ite and Sunni militants, who fought each other viciously in a two-year brutal civil war. In a country seething with ancient animosities, it’s almost certain that politics will be attended by violence.

A major stumbling block will be the distribution of Iraq’s oil, half of which is in the Shiite South and the other in the Kurdish North. The Sunni minority, which ruled the country by force for decades, has no access to any of the two. An acceptable distribution of the national oil wealth seems almost phantasmagoric, based on the historical memories that both Kurds and Shiites have of the Sunni brutal oppression.

Once the U.S. troops leave, Iraq will be on the brink of full-blown civil war, under total order disintegration and bloodshed. The consequences will inevitably be, a massive Saudi intervention to stop Iranian-backed Shiite militias from butchering Iraqi Sunnis. Egypt, Jordan and other Arab and Muslim countries, have already petitioned the Saudi leadership to provide Iraqi Sunnis with weapons and financial support. There is new generation of Saudi royals in strategic government positions, who are eager to see the kingdom play a more muscular role in the region.

Al-Qaeda forces, on the run after the U.S. “surge”, will quickly regroup, finding the Iraqi void a lucrative haven to spread their operations throughout the entire region. Inside Iraq, spiraling sectarian violence will quickly dissolve the fragile trust between Iraq’s elected leaders and strengthen the hand of hard-liners and militia commanders in every community. The result will be an all out sectarian civil war with outsiders helping each side in the mutual carnage.

Jihadists are already preparing their strategic lines into Iraq. Constantly crossing the Syrian border, they are backed by ideological and financial circles inside Saudi Arabia. The notorious Salafi- Wahabi combat groups have the highly dangerous ‘Sunni Triangle’ in sight for religious cleansing, as long as the “will of Allah” prevails. Widely known as the most brutal Islamic fundamentalists, their entire culture of killing, on which Salafi militants base their methods of combat, that is to fight all they consider infidels- primarily Shiites, but even secular Sunnis are not to be spared. Recent violent clashes in downtown Baghdad involving Iraqi soldiers, U.S. forces and Sunni ‘Arab Awakening Council’ terrorists, foreshadow challenges that lay ahead.

Thus any success of the highly dubious Obama plan, will first and foremost hinge on the capacity of his administration to stop the flow of jihadists from Syria and Saudi Arabia, a near ‘Mission Impossible’ as military experts soberly assess.

An even more complex prediction is about Iran’s plans for post-American withdrawal. Although many in Washington are ‘excited’ to report that “realism will prevail in Tehran” as soon as the Obama administration sits down with the mullahs, such a scenario, would be totally illusory, if not dangerously out of reality. Iran has deeply vested historic, economic and political interest in Iraq, especially in its strategic south. Tehran’s longtime ambition is to penetrate, influence and seize 60 percent of Iraq from Baghdad to Basra as American forces withdraw, and most certainly after their pull-out. They will use all the power elements at their disposal – special groups, the Mahdi Army, assassinations, and government infiltrators. Even a perfunctory glimpse at the map shows, that Iran’s strategic ambitions are a mere stone throw away, once the road is clear of U.S. and British forces in that region.

More acute danger lurks in Iraq’s Kurdish north. It is probably in Kirkuk where the disputes seem most intractable. At its simplest, this is an old-fashioned turf war. The Kurds want the city and its hinterlands to be folded into the northern province of Kurdistan. Turkomans, a distinct ethnic group sharing ancestry with modern Turks and Arabs, would prefer it to remain outside Kurdish hegemony, in the separate Tamim province. But all know that outside Kirkuk is one of Iraq’s largest oil fields and that is what makes Kirkuk such a highly dangerous flashpoint.

So far the Kurdish semi-autonomic region was virtually protected by U.S. troop presence. Once these leave, the Kurds no doubt will again strive towards full autonomy, if not a fully independent statehood. This is where both Ankara and Tehran will come in, to avert such a move, using force if needed. Will Washington remain passive and watch the Kurds butchered by both Turkish Sunni and Iranian Shiites?

The American withdrawal from Iraq, even if phased and gradual, will present a mammoth proportional logistical operation. Large sections of the long exit routes, especially those through the dangerous Basrah bottleneck, are highly susceptible to hostile fire. A safer exit route would therefore be through northern Kurdish controlled Iraq and Turkey. Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan said the United States has requested that Ankara be prepared to help it withdraw from war-torn Iraq. Indeed, Washington had made the request but did not provide details of its pullout plans. The sprawling Incirlik Air Base in remote southern Turkey already serves as the passageway for 70 percent of the air cargo bound for American troops in Iraq. By land, the Habur Gate – a dust-blown border checkpoint – is used to ship construction materials, food, fuel and other non-lethal items from Turkey into Iraq. The Eastern Mediterranean ports will render excellent loading point for heavy equipment. But Ankara might well ask Washington to pay a high price for its generosity. When matters will heat up in Kurdistan, the bill will be presented to Barack Obama to keep mum, as Turkish troops re-enter Iraq, apparently to chase PKK terrorists. The Jordanian port of Aqaba, accessible via the Iraq-Jordan land route could also become an option for U.S. withdrawal.

In February 2003, a month before the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, the Saudi foreign minister, Prince Saud al-Faisal, warned President Bush that he would be “solving one problem and creating five more” if he removed Saddam Hussein by force. Unfortunately, he failed to listen and George Walker Bush’s illusion for a democratic Iraq will quickly evaporate as soon as his successor, Barack Hussein Obama will give the order to start the fateful withdrawal.

President Barack Obama’s motorcade makes its way from Baghdad International Airport Tuesday, April 7, 2009, toward Camp Victory in Baghdad, Iraq. Photo: White House Photo/Pete Souza.

FPI Upgrades Cougar MRAP with Independent Suspensions

By

admin

-

Apr 10, 2009

cougar_is_rear — This Category I (CAT-I 4x4) Cougar Independent Suspension (Cougar IS) uses the AxleTech ISAS 5000 independent suspension to improve the Cougar's mobility over rough terrain. This version of the Cougar has a lower curb weight, and slightly lower profile. It can travel at a maximum road speed of 66 miles per hour and accelerate from zero to 30 mph in 11 seconds. The vehicle can travel a 5% grade at a speed of 29 mph. and negotiate a grade of 60% and side slope of 30%. A different version of the Cougar was also tested with a modified TAK-4 suspension system from Oshkosh. Photo: Tamir Eshel, Defense-Update

The Cougar Mine Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) will be modified with an independent suspension kit, improving its all-terrain mobility. The company is testing different independent suspension systems from AxleTech and Oshkosh, The later is the TAK-4 system derived from the US Marine Corps’ Medium Tactical Vehicle Replacement (MTVR) chassis, of which over 10,000 are operated by the U.S. Marine Corps. AxleTech is offering its 5000 series independent axle system, rated 12 ton (25,000 pounds) per axle.

According to Marine Corps Commandant General James T. Conway, these modifications will make MRAP vehicles already used by the Marines in Iraq more suitable for their missions in Afghanistan and more suitable for long service life. Oshkosh was awarded the initial order. AxleTech and Oshkosh are currently competing to supply follow-on orders to equip more US Marine Corps’ Cougars.

The Cougar will be the first MRAP to utilize the patented TAK-4. The MRAP Joint Program Office (JPO) recently completed testing of the system confirming its suitability for the Cougar MRAP. Based on these automotive field tests Oshkosh and FPI developed a field installable upgrade kit for the Cougar. Oshkosh will now supply those kits for 4×4 and 6×6 axle configuration vehicles under a $158 million order awarded by the MRAO JPO. The modifications are expected to be completed by the end of 2009. Testing of other MRAP models continue at the Nevada Automotive Test Center (NATC) after the MRAP JPO determined the enhancement significantly improved the vehicle’s all-terrain mobility.

“The TAK-4 has undergone more than 400,000 miles of government durability testing and will significantly improve the off-road mobility of MRAP vehicles.” said Robert Bohn, Oshkosh Corporation chairman and chief executive officer. The Independent Suspension Cougar was unveiled at the AUSA Winter exhibition earlier this year. This vehicle was initially considered by Force Dynamics for the MRAP-All Terrain Vehicle but as it’s weight was slightly above the M-ATV limit, the team decided to submit the Cheetah instead. Unlike the MRAP, which is too high to fit into the C-130 cargo bay, FPI claims a single 4×4 Cougar IS can be carried in the C-130 at Gross Vehicle Weight. FPI and AXleTech are cooperating to optimize the ISAS to become ‘blast resistant’. AxleTech independent suspension axles have already been integrated in the Australian Thales Bushmaster mine protected vehicle and Textron Systems’ M-1117 Armored Security (ASV) vehicles. The independent suspension allows for independent vertical wheel travel of up to 16 inches (40cm), facilitating more effective off-road mobility and safety.

Marine Corps Commandant General James T. Conway confirmed the corps is planning to upgrade its existing MRAPs to become more suitable for off-road mobility. The modification included the introduction of specially designed independent suspension modified to better deflect mine blast underneath the vehicle, without degrading the vehicle’s V-shaped profile. The bottom of the vehicle has also been modified adding reinforced blast surface underneath, retaining the blast-deflecting design. “The USMC doesn’t need more MRAPS.” Said General Conway. “We want to modify those we have, primarily CAT-I vehicles [the Cougar 4×4 MRAP]”. Modifications kits will be shipped to field units to upgrade CAT-I MRAP in theater. “They will get to the field faster, revolutionize MRAP use in the field, and cost less” Said General Conway. General Conway said that the US Marine Corps has enough MRAPs and is unlikely to buy the M-ATV being evaluated by the U.S. Army. The corps is also critical about the weight growth of the JLTV. According to General Conway, industry hasn’t met the US Marine Corps vision with the current designs. He said the USMC won’t buy a 20,000 pounds JLTV that can’t be airlifted by the corps helicopter.

Lockheed Martin Introduces VARIOUS Concept UCAV

By

admin

-

Apr 9, 2009

VTOL Advanced Reconnaissance Insertion Organic Unmanned System (VARIOUS), a concept of an advanced aerial recon- and support vehicle, is designed to support Special Forces and expeditionary units of marines, as an organic asset. In the next decade or later, VARIOS could assume the role envisioned for the FireScout, meeting a future naval requirement for a 3 – 4 ton ISR and close support vehicle that could vertically take off and land on an aircraft carrier, amphibious support ship or from land strips.

VARIOUS will carry our tactical reconnaissance and fire support missions, armed with an ISR package, automatic guns and missiles. The aerial vehicle is designed to be stealthy, and cooperate with manned and unmanned aerial systems and surface ships while operating autonomously. The aircraft will have a wing span of 28.5 ft, 22′ length is smaller than an F35 and will be capable of operating at long to medium range, carrying a multi-spectral ISR payload and about 450 lbs of internally carried ordnance to support ground operations (maximum payload will be 1,900lbs). The aircraft will operate at ceiling of up to 20,000′, flying at a maximum speed of 350 knots.

By using morphing wings, which will be able to change their camber or aspect ratio, VARIOUS will be able to cruising at a speed of 250 kt or loiter much slower over the target, maintaining a low speed of 160 kt to maximize endurance and persistence over a target area. Its vertical takeoff and landing will be provided by ducted fans embedded in the wings. VARIOUS will have some common elements shared with the Cormorant, another Skunk Works program designed to provide persistent, long range ISR and attack capabilities to US Navy Submarines. However, VARIOUS will is not positioned to compete with the F35 or unmanned combat aerial system (UCAS). The vehicle is currently in an early conceptual development phase and, if the program is pursued, VARIOUS could reach the flight demonstration phase by 2010.

Decisive Cuts Define Pentagon’s Way Forward

By

Tamir Eshel

-

Apr 7, 2009

Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates today laid out his recommendations for the 2010 budget during a Pentagon press conference. Among the most dramatic cuts are the restructuring of the Army’s Future Combat Systems program, which will terminate the Manned Ground Vehicle (MGV) segment of the program, saving some $85 billion. The $26 billion Transformational Satellite (TSAT) will also be axed. The $13 billion presidential helicopter program is also to be terminated. The Air Force will cease procurement of F-22, C-17 and planned acquisition of combat search and rescue helicopter will be terminated. A third base for Ground Based Interceptors will not be fielded. The Navy will push back the construction of several vessels, including aircraft carriers, amphibious and supply ships. On the upside, Gates wants to allocate more funding to accelerate F-35 production, he also added $2 billion to augment intelligence, reconnaissance and surveillance operations, by manned and unmanned assets. $900 million will be allocated to fund naval and land-based theater based missile interceptor programs. While Gates’ proposed cuts are dramatic, the final decision is with the U.S. Congress which has the constitutional responsibility to decide whether to support these proposals.

Terminating the Manned Ground Vehicle (MGV)

The Army’s Future Combat Systems program has become a primary target for Gate’s cuts. The program is expected to undergo significant restructuring if Gates’ recommendation on canceling the vehicle component of the current FCS program will follow through. The eight vehicles utilizing the MGV common chassis were the cornerstone of the Future Brigade Combat Team and the main justification for many of the systems’ developments, including active and passive protection, system of systems architecture, communications and data transfer capabilities. This was also the most significant cost factor in the program – the MGV family was attributed with a budget of some $87 billion. It was also the least mature element of the program. “I believe we must have more confidence in the program strategy, requirements, and maturity of the technologies before proceeding further” warned Gates.

The secretary of Defense said he is particularly concerned that the MGV requirements, defined nine years ago, did not consider the current threats and shift toward heavier armor, a trend clearly demonstrated by the MRAP vehicle program, initiated and encouraged personally by Mr. Gates. “An Army vehicle modernization program designed to meet the needs of the full spectrum of conflict is essential. But, because of its size and importance, we must get the acquisition right, even at the cost of delay.” said Gates. He said the Army should reevaluate the requirements, technology and approach and then re-launch the Army’s vehicle modernization program, including a competitive bidding process. “I have concluded that there are significant unanswered questions concerning the FCS vehicle design strategy. I’m also concerned that, despite some adjustments, the FCS vehicles — where lower weight, higher fuel efficiency and greater information awareness are expected to compensate for less armor — do not adequately reflect the lessons of counterinsurgency and close-quarters combat in Iraq and Afghanistan.” explained Gates.

Part of the FCS program that has reached advanced maturity will be accelerated while other elements will be delayed. The initial increment of the program is expected to ‘spin out’ technology enhancements to all combat brigades beginning FY 11.

Gates also recommended the Army will trim its projected order of battle, leveling at 45 Brigade Combat Teams (BCT) rather than the 48 planned before, maintaining the troop level at 547,000, considered sufficient to maintain the manpower quality, and unit readiness while rotating units between training and combat missions. In order to increase the availability of helicopters to support deployed units, Gates plans to request $500 million more to recruit, train and support aircrews and ground support teams.

F-35 in – F-22 Out

The air force will also suffer under Gates’ cuts. The secretary of Defense recommended ending the production of the F-22 fighter program. Lockheed Martin will build the last four aircraft approved by the Bush administration last year but cease production at 187 aircraft. The last F-22 rolls off the line toward the end of 2011. He reaffirmed his commitment to the Joint Strike Fighter program and recommended to add 16 additional F-35s (total 30) to be bought in FY ’10, increase the funding for the program from $6.8 billion to $11.2 billion. According to Gates, shifting gears between the two programs will be able to maintain and even increase workforce committed to the program. In total, Gates plan to buy 513 F-35s over the five-year defense plan, and ultimately plan to buy 2,443. Gates indicated that the KC-X aerial refueling tanker schedule and funding will be maintained, with the intent to solicit bids this summer. The production of C-17 will be completed this year. Gates said that according to analysis, the 205 aircraft currently in service or construction are sufficient to sustain operations as planned.

A $2 billion increase in intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) support for the warfighter will fund the fielding and sustaining of 50 Predator and Reaper class unmanned aerial vehicle orbits by FY ’11 and maximizing their production. This capability partly funded within the Global War on Terror supplemental budget, will now be permanently funded in the base budget. It will represent a 62 percent increase in capability over the current level and 127 percent from a year ago. In addition to the unmanned systems, manned ISR capabilities will also be augmented. DOD plans to initiate research and development on a number of ISR enhancements and experimental platforms optimized for today’s battlefield, following the successful induction of turboprop aircraft deployed as part of Task Force ODIN in Iraq. Special Operations Command will increase personnel by more than 2,800, or 5 percent. Additionally, more funding is requested to buy more special-forces-optimized lift mobility and refueling aircraft. With the expected introduction of the new fighter, the air force is planning to retire 250 of its oldest Air Force tactical fighter aircraft in FY ’10.

The $26 billion Transformational Satellite program (TSAT) will also be terminated. Instead, the Pentagon will deploy two additional Advanced Extremely High-Frequency (AEHF) satellites. Another future program being terminated is the next generation bomber, originally considered to replace the B-2 by 2018.

Gates said he is determined to stop programs that significantly exceed their budget or which overshoot the nation’s needs. “Our conventional modernization goals should be tied to the actual and prospective capabilities of known future adversaries, not by what might be technologically feasible” said Gates. Programs that haven’t reached adequate maturity levels are also axed. Among these is the acquisition of presidential helicopter fleet of 23 VH-71 helicopters which exceeded the planned budget by 5.5 billion, and has fallen six years behind schedule. President Obama will have to contain with the current 30-40 years old VH3 helicopters until a new follow-on program is introduced, around FY-11. Gates also calls for the termination of the Air Force Combat Search and Rescue X helicopter program. “We will look at whether there is a requirement for a specialized search and rescue aircraft along the lines that the Air Force had in mind and whether it should be a joint capability” said Gates.

Missile Defense Programs

The Pentagon plans to add $700 million to field more Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), and the Naval Standard Missile 3 systems, to increase deployable missile protection capabilities to protect U.S. forces and interests overseas. Additional $200 million funding will also be allocated for the conversion of six additional Aegis ships to provide ballistic-missile-defense capabilities.

The missile defense program will be restructured to reflect the current focus on theater missiledefense and, on intercepting long range ballistic missiles in their boost phase, rather than addressing each targets individually in either midcourse or the terminal phases. The U.S. priorities in missile defense were to protect the homeland, then protect allies, deployed forces and friends. “We’re going to focus on our deployed forces, our allies and friends.” said General JAMES CARTWRIGHT (USMC, Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff), “the systems that are considered operational – SM-3, THAAD, Patriot (PAC3) – building them out in quantity so that we can deploy them and move forward quickly there while we start to reassess what it is we can do in the boost phase for long range.”

The primary threat is viewed as a missile attack from rogue states. Therefore, the number of ground based missile interceptors deployed in Alaska is considered sufficient and will not be increased as proposed before. Furthermore, the Multiple Kill Vehicle (MKV) program will also be canceled, due to significant technical challenges and the need to take a fresh look at the requirement. However, research and development in ballistic missile defense will continue to improve their effectiveness and capabilities of current assets, particularly against threats posed by North Korean missiles. Construction of a second Airborne Laser (ABL) Prototype Aircraft will also be cancelled. The testing and evaluation of the only existing ABL will continue – it was saved only due to the fact that the system’s being a ‘boost phase’ type interceptor. Overall, the Missile Defense Agency program will be reduced by $1.4 billion.

Focusing on LCS, and Aegis

Despite plans to terminate the DDG-1000 program, Gates decided to give the Navy an extension of time to work out a solution with the two shipyards tasked with building the first two prototypes – Bath Iron Works in Maine and Ingalls, in Mississippi. The current plan rely on a single shipyard to construct only three vessels. If the Navy is successful in shifting DDG-1000 construction to Maine, Bath will build two additional destroyers beginning in FY ’10. Otherwise, the program will end with the first ship currently being built at Bath. Both shipyards will shift back to construct DDG-51 Aegis destroyers with Ingalls converting immediately and Bath convert to DDG-51 after completing the three DDG-1000s. The shipyards and Navy are expected to reach and understanding on this matter as lacking a conclusion, the disrupted workflow could result in layoffs.

The Navy aircraft carrier program will be shifted to a five-year build cycle, resulting in 10 carriers after 2040. The Next Generation (CG-X) Cruiser, amphibious-ship and sea-basing programs will be delayed. Construction of the 11th landing platform dock ship and the mobile landing platform ships will also push back to FY ’11. Gates is supporting the U.S. Navy’s goal to acquire 55 littoral combat ships and is recommending to increase the procurement of such vehicles from 2 to 3 in FY’10, the LCS is “a key capability for presence, stability and counterinsurgency operations in coastal regions” said Gates. The Navy should also improve its inter-theater lift capacity, operating four chartered joint high-speed vessels, until JHSVs are being delivered beginning in 2011. The Fiscal Year 2010 will also fund the procurement of 31 F/A-18E/Fs for naval aviation.

Boeing Could Suffer the Hardest Blow from Secretary Gates’ Proposed Cuts

By

admin

-

Apr 7, 2009

nextgen_bomber — The future Long Range Strike Bomber could build upon the experience gained with the past Next Generation Bomber program. Boeing

The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA) was hardest hit by the planned cuts recommended by Defense Secretary Robert Gates announced yesterday. If these cuts are approved, Boeing will be affected by the shutdown of F-22, and C-17 production. The scale-down of Ground Based Interceptor fielding, termination of the Manned Ground Vehicle component of the FCS program, and Combat Search and Rescue (CSAR) program mean serious blows for Boeing. The company will also lose potential business due to major program cancellations including the Transformational Satellite (TSAT) and Next Generation Bomber.

One of the company’s flagships, the Army’s Future Combat Systems, for which Boeing shares Lead Systems Integrator (LSI) role with Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC, NYSE: SAI), is at risk after Secretary Gates recommended terminating the program’s Manned Ground Vehicle component, representing over 50 percent of the program’s cost. Starting over on designing and bidding for those vehicles will directly affect Boeing and its subcontractors, primarily General Dynamics Land Systems and BAE Systems.

While Boeing could suffer the loss of funding related to these vehicles and associated systems, even more critical is Gates’ call to re-launch an Army vehicle modernization program, with a new contractor bidding process, that could bypass the FCS program entirely. So far Boeing and SAIC managed all acquisitions in the program almost as if they were a government-procurement agency. That setup has been criticized severely as a license to funnel money from government to industry. Gates said he is “troubled by the terms of the current contract, particularly its very unattractive fee structure.” In fact, the government plans to hire 13,000 new civil servants in fiscal year 2010 to replace outside contractors. Within five years government employees, replacing contractors could increase to 30,000, Gates said. This could put an end to the LSI role which earned the biggest defense industries a nice and steady income in recent years.

Boeing will also suffer loss of potential business associated with the shutdown of additional F-22 Raptor production. The Air Force was hoping to buy 20 Raptors in FY 2010 and 40 more in the following years. While the aircraft prime contractor Lockheed Martin could offset the F-22 shutdown, by scaling up of the F-35 program, Boeing will have to absorb the loss. Boeing builds the F-22’s wings and aft fuselage for the F-22 fighter but has no role at all in the F-35. Boeing will also bear the consequences of the final shutdown of the C-17 production at Long Beach California, affecting about 5,000 employees. Another Boeing production program to be suspended is the delivery of ground based missile interceptors, originally destined for a third base in Alaska
No doubt, Secretary Gates’ recommendations regarding the C-17 and F-22 programs are expected to draw intensive opposition. Both programs enjoy strong support by the Senate and Congress.

The prospects for new business which Boeing could regain are quite limited; Gates also recommended terminating several major programs for which Boeing has been competing. These include the $26 billion Transformational Satellite (TSAT) constellation of communications-satellites, and a $15 billion combat search-and-rescue helicopter (CSAR-X). Preliminary development of a future long-range Air Force bomber for which Boeing and Lockheed Martin teamed-up, will also be terminated.

A potential bright spot for Boeing is the prospect of winning the Air Force’s KC-X future tanker program; the Pentagon remains committed to restarting the competition this summer. The current budget also maintains funding for 31F/A-18E/F Super Hornets for the US Navy.

General Dynamics (NYSE: GD) will suffer on two fronts – the planned cancellation of the Army’s Manned Ground Vehicle, means loss of research and development contacts for its Land Systems (GDLS) in the immediate term and loss of potential orders for future production, originally expected by the beginning of the next decade. The long term forecast of the company’s shipyards at Bath is also troubled as the future of the future DDG-1000 destroyer is unclear.

The cancellation of FCS MGV is bad news for BAE Systems too (UK: BA). While the company is well positioned to gain from M-ATV and JLTV programs in the near future, production of vehicles for the FCS program was a major element in its plans for the next decade. However, both GDLS and BAE Systems should be well positioned to win future Army orders, as soon as the Pentagon completes its reevaluation and plots its future combat vehicle strategy. Finmeccanica, another international group that scored a major win with the U.S. presidential helicopter will undoubtedly suffer from the cuts.

While termination of future programs such as the Next Generation Bomber (above) or F-22 Raptor (bleow) will have negative infleunce on Boeing, Lockheed Martin, the prime contractor of the F-22 and JSF will be able to shift focus between the two programs, to balance negative effect on work force and expenses. Photo above: Boeing. Below: US Air Force.

Lockheed Martin: F-35 Gain could Offset Raptor Loss

Compared to Boeing, other defense contractors will suffer less from the proposed cuts. Despite the potential loss of the F-22 Raptor and presidential helicopter programs, Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) should be less affected by the cuts. The VH-71 presidential helicopter program which called for Lockheed Martin to deliver a US built version of the AgustaWestland EH-101 helicopter has been troubled for sometime.

Regarding the Raptor, the Pentagon is hopeful that the adverse effects of the early shutdown of the F-22 production after delivering 187 aircraft could be compensated by expediting F-35 productions. Lockheed Martin is the prime contractor for both programs. The company will gain more business through new orders for Littoral Combat Ships, (LCS) and from an increase in the THAAD program, upgrades, planned for the AEGIS cruisers and continued support for Patriot PAC-3. The company can also expect orders for two additional Advanced Extremely High Frequency (EHF) satellites, to be used as an alternative to the cancelled Transformational Satellite System (TSAT).

The impact on other U.S. defense contractors such as Northrop Grumman(NYSE: NOC) is yet unclear. The company is expected to benefit from the new program, with the Ingalls shipyards expected to shift from the troubled DDG-1000 program to building more earlier-version DDG-51 destroyers. The company is also providing subsystems for the Advanced EHF satellites. Cancellation of the Air Force’s plans to develop and build a new long-range bomber to replace the B-2 by 2018, could have an effect on the company’s research and development activities, but is not expected to have substantial financial effect, as these costs should be compensated by more work related to the F-35 program. Finally, their prospects to win the KC-X program this summer are still realistic. However, battered by the recent blows, Boeing is expected to fight with all it has to win this ‘winner takes all’ competition.

Other companies expected to gain from the shift in the Pentagon’s focus include Raytheon (NYSE: RTN), L3 Communications (NYSE:LLL) and UAV developer General Atoics.

The newest (and only) prototype of the Manned Ground Vehicle family of vehicles that have been completed so far is the Non Line Of Sight – Canon (NLOS-C), the automated self-propelled artillery system designed to support the future brigade combat team. The remaining seven MGV types have years to reach the current maturity level of the NLOS-C. Photo US Army

Could Brazil’s F-X2 Fighter Modernization Program Grow into Mega Deal?

By

admin

-

Apr 6, 2009

mxt_navistar — The armored version of Navistar Defense' International MXT-MV was selected by the U.K. to become the 'Husky' tactical protected vehicle, supporting military units deployed in areas inaccessible by heavier MRAP armored trucks. Photo: Navistar Defense

While Brazil is evaluating the proposals submitted by the three finalists – Boeing, Dassault and Saab, the government and Air Force are also reevaluating their longer term requirements in an attempt to expand the production base into more economical levels.

su35_03 — Following significant Russian pressure, the Su-35 re-emerged as a candidate for Brazil's F-X2 fighter modernization program. The Russians have submitted their offer based on a local production program that could include up to 100 locally assembled Su-35 aircraft. Russia have already delivered similar Su-30MK2 fighters to Venezuela. Photo: Sukhoi.

In November 2007 Brazil announced its plans to embark on a $2.2 billion F-X2 future fighter procurement, seeking to modernize its air forces’ first-line fighter fleet with 36 latest generation fighters. This modernization is long overdue, since the most modern asset in the arsenal of the Forca Aerea Brasileira (FAB – Brazilian Air Force) are locally built Super Tucano/ALX surveillance and light attack turboprops, built by Embraer. Its first-line operation units include a few squadrons of locally built AMX subsonic light fighters, which constantly receive phased upgrades from Italy and Israel, and 1960 vintage F-5BRs also modernized with Israeli avionics systems. A previous attempt to modernize the Brazilian Air Force failed in 2004, due to lack of political support. Brazil then opted to buy a squadron of 12 French Air Force Mirage 2000s to replace its obsolete Mirage III mach-2 fighters.

The program, currently known as F-X2 reached its important milestone almost a year later, in October 08 as the Air Force selected the three fighters that could meet its requirements. These included the American Boeing F/A-18E/F, Swedish Saab-39 Gripen NG and French Rafale from Dassault. Eurofighter and Sukhoi were out of the list, as well as the U.S. F-16 and F-35. By February 2009 all proposals were submitted, only to find that the Brasilians and Russians may have renegotiated another deal.
Following significant Russian pressure, the Su-35 re-emerged as a candidate, but, according to Russian sources, the volume of the program increased dramatically and now counts 100 aircraft, almost matching the Indian MMRCA planned acquisition of 126 aircraft that has been stirring the entire military world in the past years. Naturally, Moscow is proposing local production of the aircraft in Brazil. The Brazilian Air Force has already made a clear choice about the types of weapons it will be fielding on its new fighters. These are likely to comprise of the South African Darter-A short range IR missiles, being developed under cooperation between the Brazilian Air Force and South African Denel and the Israeli Derby beyond-visual-range (BVR) missiles, already adapted for Brazil’s modernized F-5BRs. WHile Darter-A is being integrated with the Gripen, to fit on the South African Air Force fighters, the Derby is believed to be one of the weapons the Indian Air Force has earmarked for its MMRCA program.

This dramatic change will undoubtedly call all participants to recalculate their offers. It is also expected to draw extreme pressure from Europe, to reconsider the Eurofighter Typhoon. However, most bidders would, undoubtedly remain cautious trusting government officials in San Paolo to remain committed to such a long term program, securing political and financial over the next decade. Under these circumstances, in any country such chaos would totally derail the program, so it remains to be seen what will be the fate of Brazil’s F-X2.

gripen_ng — In February 2009 Gripen International has submitted an offer to deliver 36 Gripen NG fighters to Brazil, in response to Brazil's F-X2 program. Photo: Saab

Tehran Setting Up Strategic Presence In Red Sea

By

David Eshel

-

Apr 5, 2009

eritrea_iran_meeting — Eritrea tyrant Isaias Afwerki (left) meets with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (right) in Tehran, 20 May 2008.

Last December Iran staged a six day of naval exercise in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. Admiral Qasem Rostamabadi told state radio that the naval forces taking part in the wargame included 60 combat vessels covering over an area of 50,000 square miles, including the Sea of Oman off Iran’s southern coast.

Iran has previously said it could close the Strait of Hormuz to shipping, through which about 40 percent of the worlds globally traded oil passes but the United States Navy has pledged to protect those vital shipping routes. However a message which should cause serious concern was issued last week by a senior Iranian navy commander, was quoted as saying that Iran’s navy could strike an enemy well beyond its shores and as far away as the strategic Bab al-Mandab, the southern entrance to the Red Sea that leads to the Suez Canal.

These are no empty threats: Iran is taking a growing interest in Africa generally and the Horn of Africa in particular. Iran’s goal is not clear yet, but there are concerns that it is primarily interested in propagating its fundamentalist beliefs in the region. If this is the only objective, it might be a tough sell for Shi’ite Iran as virtually all the Muslims in the Horn are Sunni with strong Sufi beliefs. The religious issue might be only a cover-up, hiding the real Iranian objective to establish its military power in this highly strategic environment. In fact Tehran has already established a long-standing and close relationship with Sudan and has made significant progress recently in improving ties with Eritrea and Djibouti. Eritrean President Isaias Afewerki visited Tehran in December 2008, and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad went to Djibouti in February 2009, when he signed five cooperation agreements with his Djiboutian counterpart. Iranian contact with Ethiopia has been occurring at a lower level, however Iran has also engaged recently in high level contact with the leaders of Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and the Comoro Islands.

US intelligence expert Reva Bhalla says the Sunni Arab-dominated Sudanese government and Iran’s Shi’ite government have maintained close ties because they are focused on a shared anti-U.S. and anti-Israeli agenda, overshadowing their sectarian differences. She notes that Sudan is part of a wider pro-Iranian regional alliance, which includes Syria, Qatar, and militant Islamic groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, Islamic Jihad, and Hamas. “Iran loves to flaunt its ability to reach out to Sunni Arab powers in this region to show that it does not have to be limited to its centralistic Persian Shi’ite identity – that it has the Islamist leverage to reach out far beyond its border and exert its influence elsewhere,” Bhalla said. “That is why we see, despite Iran being a Shi’ite power, it has very close ties to Hamas, a radical Sunni power. And that very much alarms the Sunni-Arab powers in the region, most notably the Egyptians and the Saudis, who all have an interest in keeping Hamas contained and the Iranians at bay.”

Sofar, unfortunately, the so-called Sunni Alliance has done little to counter Tehran’s Shiite strategy. According to newly elected US President Barack Obama’s policy in the region, setting his priorities on diplomacy rather than military power- there is little hope for a more aggressive signal to curb Iran’s regional ambitions, before they mature.
U.S. relations with Djibouti are good and generally problem free. Djibouti hosts the only U.S. military base in Africa, Combined Joint Task Force-Horn of Africa (CJTF- HOA). Although there is no indication that Djibouti desires to alter its close relationship with the U.S., its recent high-level contact with Iran bears careful watching.

Djibouti serves as the port for nearly all of landlocked Ethiopia’s exports and imports that depart and arrive by sea. Ethiopia has an even greater interest in cordial relations with Djibouti than does the United States. Because Djibouti hosts CJTF-HOA and Ethiopia is dependent on the port, Djibouti becomes an important part of a regional policy for the Horn of Africa. It is also in the interest of the United States to quietly support Djibouti in its dispute with Eritrea. But with Iran already active here, it might be too late and the US should act without delay to stop this strategic asset falling into Tehran’s African network.

The United States essentially abandoned Somalia following the departure of U.S. troops from the country in 1994 after the scandalous operation ‘Restore Hope’ in 1993, better known as the notorious “Battle of Mogadishu”, in which the US lost 18 troops in a single day.

In 2002, as part of its newly-declared “war on terror”, the US was allowed to set up a military base in the strategic former French colony of Djibouti, which borders Somalia and also faces the southern entrance to the Red Sea. The base – the only military facility which Washington officially possesses on the African continent – is used both to keep an eye on events in Somalia and to patrol the strategic seaways in the Arabian Sea.

But it took a few more years to create a substantial military organization to try and stabilize the critical strategic environment. AFRICOM officially became operational as a sub-unified command of EUCOM with a separate headquarters. On October 1, 2008, the command separated from USEUCOM and began operating on its own as a full fledged Command; however, whether AFRICOM will be able to restore US domination in the Horn of Africa remains questionable. The focus of its operational domain indicates its mission as diplomatic, economic and humanitarian aid, aimed at prevention of conflict, rather than at military intervention. Without a clear strategic directive from highest quarters and deployment of impressive military power in that sensitive region, there is little doubt that Teheran’s strategic ambitions in the Horn of Africa will go forth virtually undisturbed.

In April 2008 Iran and Sudan have already entered into a full military cooperation. This treaty is part of an ongoing, comprehensive effort by Iran to spread its influence into the strategic horn of Africa and Central Africa. Then in December 12, 2008 an Eritrean opposition site published a rumor about cooperation between Iran and Eritrea to revamp an old refinery in Assab, Eritrea. Furthermore, Iranian ships and submarines have deployed an undisclosed number of troops at Port Sudan recently. The Iranian troops are slated to be stationed in the city of Assab, reportedly under the pretext of protecting the Russian-built Eritrean Assab Oil Refinery. It seems that Eritrea has granted Iran total control of the Red Sea port of Assab, which overlooks the Bab Al-Mandeb straits. This seems to be a clear indication, as to the speed that Tehran is working to establish its military presence here.

Washington, Jerusalem and Egypt should be seriously concerned with Iranian ambitions in East Africa, especially regarding the strategic Red Sea passage. In fact, so must be Saudi Arabia. There is no doubt that an Iranian military presence in nations like Somaila, Eritrea and Sudan is virtually outflanking Saudi Arabia from the West, adding to the 800 mile long Iranian Gulf coastline facing the Arab Peninsula. This strategic move, even if it is only to gain access to vital oil refineries or other “commercial” assets, must be extremely disturbing to western strategists.

The fact is that all ships going through the Suez Canal sail through the Red Sea and pass through the Bab el-Mandeb, including oil tankers and military vessels. Shipping to Jordan’s only seaport in Aqaba also goes through the straits. The Eilat-Ashkelon pipeline – pumping Azeri oil eastward to the Far East or westward from the Persian Gulf to Europe – also relies on oil tankers that sail past Assab. If that port is under Iranian control, or soon will be – officials in Washington, Cairo, Amman, Ryad and Tel Aviv should be on the alert, could this threat justify extending AFRICOM with sufficient military “teeth”?

Defense-UpdateMilitary Technology & Defense News

Defense-UpdateMilitary Technology & Defense News

Main Armament to Comprise an Israeli Unmanned Turret

What are the Russians Expecting?

Russian UAS Technology – More Time is Needed

Years of Cooperation Paved the Way for the Current Sale

Terminating the Manned Ground Vehicle (MGV)

F-35 in – F-22 Out

Missile Defense Programs

Focusing on LCS, and Aegis

EDITOR PICKS

POPULAR POSTS

POPULAR CATEGORY